Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View siteobserver's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Debunking The Short Thesis On Coinstar [View article]
    Terrific analysis. Spot on the money.
    Dec 19 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, Mr. Chanos, You're Wrong About Coinstar [View article]
    Nice summary, well reasoned.

    Mr. Chanos is wrong about the impending death of physical media such as movies on disk - however - he was right that this stock had some spikey ups and downs which probably made his short positions pay off a couple of times. I wonder if he got caught and had to cover when the stock bounced back up or did he just take a quick profit and bail out?

    Many people overlook the fact that this is a billion dollar company and listed as one of the fastest growing companies in America. Their lines of business sometimes make them seem like a smaller more entrepreneurial venture, especially since they are in retailing but as you observe, this is a technology company, taking full advantage of the blurring speed of the Internet and wireless to deliver physical products - kind of the of kiosk marketing and delivery, but with less physical inventory and logistics.

    Regarding Medbox, they have an existing healthcare diagnosis kiosk and it makes sense to branch to something more direct in the medical area.
    Dec 11 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coinstar, Redbox Have A Bright Future: A Bullish View To Counter Jim Chanos' Short [View article]
    The settlement between Verizon and TiVO has spooked investors - most investors don't understand how CSTR is helped or hindered by this settlement. Would be helpful to have a clear explanation of the pros and cons of the settlement and why it spooked CSTR investors.
    Sep 24 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coinstar, Redbox Have A Bright Future: A Bullish View To Counter Jim Chanos' Short [View article]
    This is a terrific, well reasoned summary. Jim Chanos makes his shorting arguments based on what normally happens in the consumer electronics market - which is, migration to the nextgen storage technology. Chanos assumes a rapid migration from DVDs to streaming video. However, streaming video costs remain unacceptably high. The streaming technology is not stable yet (there is a lot of "buffering" that goes on with streaming Netflix for example). The observation that CSTR may switch from a revenue growth to cash cow mode (high cash with no additional investment) is great from a stock valuation standpoint.

    The new markets that Chanos counts as negatives are growth initiatives designed to add new business units - not bad - that's what you want a growth company to do.

    One thing that is missing from this analysis is that CSTR's management team has shown itself to be very nimble and not fall into the Netflix trap of sticking to one market channel until the channel morphs or becomes saturated. This is a strong counterpoint to the Short strategy favored by Chanos. Nicely done!
    Sep 22 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on OUTR by siteobserver