Jon S.

Jon S.
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  • Can Apple's Stock Be Saved?  [View article]
    Yet another article discussing AAPL as if their new product pipeline is empty. The author asks where's the iPhablet, which I assume is a stand-in for "where's all the new gadgets Apple bulls talk about," yet he also states that Apple's R&D is better than Nokia's -- not saying much but still he seems to recognize that Apple has a serious R&D and development team, not to mention sales and marketing. So for all of us who have a time horizon greater than a few quarters, or a few weeks in too many cases, ignore this article. Challenges, yes, but nowhere near the end of the growth story for Apple.
    Jun 28, 2013. 08:25 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On cue, Apple's (AAPL -2.8%) sell-side fans are defending it following reports of iPhone component order cuts due to weaker-than-expected demand. UBS, one of the first to report of production cuts, says it detects no change to iPhone orders since December, though it worries shares could be pressured near-term. Wells Fargo notes Apple's 65M-unit iPhone 5 display order (per The Nikkei) was "an unrealistic number to begin with." JPMorgan says it only forecast 25M calendar Q1 iPhone 5 builds regardless. Notable Calls: "This sure feels like capitulation, doesn't it?"  [View news story]
    There were several astute comments on the SA articles covering the alleged cut in display demand since yesterday, arguing that Apple ordered 65 M displays last quarter, so if they sold in the neighborhood of 45 M iPhones this quarter (could be more, of course) that would give them parts for another 20 M iPhones for the next quarter. If this is true then they're not in bad shape at all.
    Jan 14, 2013. 11:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The U.S. Is Europe: Central Bank Deficit Funding Thinly Veiled  [View article]
    " I continue to believe that investors who place long-term bets against U.S. Treasuries (TLT) will one day be mentioned in the same breath as those who bet against subprime mortgages in 2006."

    Don't you mean TBT, the short ETF vehicle? TLT is the long Treasury ETF.
    Sep 29, 2012. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook does a mea culpa over Apple's (AAPL) iOS 6 Maps app. "We strive to make world-class products that deliver the best experience possible ... With the launch of our new Maps last week, we fell short on this commitment." While reiterating Apple's commitment to the app, he suggests frustrated users try App Store and Web alternatives. A Google Maps (GOOG) app for the App Store appears to be months away. (more[View news story]
    The fuss comes mostly from those rejoicing in any Apple misstep. Jobs made several big mistakes through the years too, but knew how to fix his errors. Cook and Co will make some mistakes too, like the map flap (although it is so overdone as a 'problem'), but they will quickly recover. Next quarter will be a big one.
    Sep 28, 2012. 09:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-orders for the iPhone 5 were above 2M over the first 24 hours, Apple (AAPL) announces. That's twice what Apple recorded for the iPhone 4S, and also well above the 1.3M-1.5M the ever-bullish Brian White was initially predicting. Shares +0.8%. (PR) (previous[View news story]
    Does that include pre-orders from AT&T and Verizon stores?
    Sep 17, 2012. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What do Treasurys know that stocks don't? Usually moving in lockstep, Treasury yields are diving as stocks meander higher. The 10-year -7 bps to 1.57%. TLT +0.8%.   [View news story]
    Treasuries know that Europe isn't the only epic fail on the horizon. US data is not good, and a ton of money is sitting on the sidelines while the economy gets weaker.
    Jun 15, 2012. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "You have the 10-year note at less than 1.5% and you have stocks like JNJ yielding almost 4%," says Marc Faber, making the case for stocks over bonds. "If you have a time horizon of 10 years, I believe you're going to make more money in JNJ than you will in (Treasurys)."   [View news story]
    The main guys at CNBC strive mightily to cheerlead for the world of stocks. If you're a trader, TLT is a better bet than JNJ in the short run. What good is JNJ no matter the yield if the stock is subject to a dark-colored swan that threatens to move the S&P down by 20%, 30%, even 40% in the very near future?
    Jun 4, 2012. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times Has A Bright Economic Future  [View article]
    Sorry, posted too soon re above post. While print ad revenue fell 7.8%, total ad revenue fell 7.1% in 4Q. "Total advertising revenue slid by 7.1% to $358.5 million in the fourth quarter, as against a fall of 8.8% registered in the third quarter." (
    May 25, 2012. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times Has A Bright Economic Future  [View article]
    "Print advertising revenue at The New York Times Company (NYT - Analyst Report) dropped 7.8% in the fourth quarter of 2011. At Gannett Co. (GCI - Analyst Report), publishing advertising revenue dropped 7.1% in the fourth quarter."

    -- from a story 2/15/12 (

    Your final quote is really what it's all about: will people pay for news content, and if so what kind of content, how much will they pay, etc. We'll see! Looking forward to your second article in this series.
    May 25, 2012. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times Has A Bright Economic Future  [View article]
    Daniel -- I think it's great that you're answering each comment. Good for you!

    You mention in the article that ad revenue shrank 2.3% in the most recent quarter, but that follows a fall of 7.1% in the previous quarter even as digital subscriptions rose by 20%. You can argue that the falloff in ad revenue is slowing down, but you can also argue that they need to up their game quite a bit in this area given the falloff in the past number of years: ad revenues in the newspaper world are less than half what they were in 2006. Especially challenging b/c the recent trend among advertisers is to rethink their digital advertising due to much weaker performance than they had anticipated a few years ago.

    I give the Times credit for their paywall success. But I wonder if they've captured most of their print user base and will now have a much harder time growing their digital subscriptions. My bottom line is that news consumers now have far more choices than ever before in where they get their news. When so much of it is free, I wonder if that setting up some cool apps while charging for content many believe they can get elsewhere for no cost will save their business.
    May 24, 2012. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times Has A Bright Economic Future  [View article]
    Thanks for the response. I must say though that you still have a pretty big assumption in your answer -- "could allow..." Who's to say these players, plus new entrants, won't take further share away from the NYT? Also I think you still have a major leap in faith re ad growth; why do you think this will grow as you assert in your article?
    May 23, 2012. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times Has A Bright Economic Future  [View article]
    I agree with commenter Donald Johnson for the most part. I'd also like to point out that the author is making some awfully big assumptions, as in the Times can grow its circulation from its present 2.8% of total national newspaper subscribers more than threefold to 10%. I'd like to hear the author's reasoning for how the Times can do this. Likewise his assumption about ad growth, especially at a time when many companies are wary of digital advertising.
    May 23, 2012. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Bear Case Without Numbers Or Charts  [View article]
    The author's last paragraph is quite an over-generalization. There are plenty of observers who think Apple is overrated, plenty of bears betting against it, and -- even here in the hallowed discussion 'halls of SA -- plenty of authors and commenters who don't love Apple.

    That the majority opinion is in favor of the stock says something, but not everything, nor would it matter if they did. The problem with the author's article is his entire framework: you can't intelligently opine about anything on the basis of....nothing! No facts, no figures, no "numbers or charts."
    May 23, 2012. 09:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake, Conoco And Exxon All Looking Like Hot Stocks  [View article]
    Does anyone know whether PSX will offer a dividend. Also interested in author/commenter advice on whether PSX looks like a winner. Thanks for any input.
    May 1, 2012. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury prices continue to rally, the 10-year note yield off another 2 bps to 1.91%, the lowest level in nearly 3 months. Equity and Treasury prices have faithfully moved inversely to each other over past years, but the move higher in stocks since last fall has not led to a sell-off in government paper. Operation Twist in action?   [View news story]
    How low will the 10-year note yield go? Just a hunch but I can see it going to 1.75% or so, in the next 4-6 weeks. Too much of a drop?
    Apr 30, 2012. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment