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Jon S.

Jon S.
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  • Do Not Short Apple Stock [View article]
    Well done! I think this sentence is key: "On a macro level, Apple short sellers are making the implicit argument for either a stock market collapse or a gradual return to austerity in the form of higher interest rates and reduced government spending."

    If the Fed allows interest rates to rise more than a very small amount, then interest on the federal debt starts to become more than a headache as it now is. Real programs will have to be cut, something Congress can't stomach. For me the major question that needs to be answered re AAPL is stock market collapse. Will a black swan event take down AAPL as well? And if so, by how much?

    Kofi, here's your next article!
    Apr 4 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European shares leg down to new session lows, today led by the core. Stoxx 50 -1.5%, the German Dax -1.9%, Spain's IBEX off "just" 0.7% after being the big laggard thus far in 2012. The euro -0.6% to $1.3151.  [View news story]
    Time to buy more EUO!
    Apr 4 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Take Profits Before You Lose Them [View article]
    Hey, bobbo, all the rich guys I know are Democrats.

    Love, George Soros
    Apr 4 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Take Profits Before You Lose Them [View article]
    You're a hater, stupid, and jealous ... kidding! But there is something missing from your analysis. An article like this that only talks about the share price and ignores a discussion -- even a very brief discussion -- of the fundamentals is leaving out a critical piece of analysis.

    Seriously, anyone who owns any stock should always have a plan in mind re when and if to sell, so even AAPL bulls like me need to keep perspective. But like anything else, you need to ask yourself what is it exactly that AAPL is doing for you on a 'global' basis? How does it fit into your investing plan? Are you just in it to seize some short-term profits?

    For me, holding most AAPL shares in my retirement portfolio, I have a much longer term view than the day traders here, so I'm not concerned about short-term blips and pullbacks. My guess is that the majority of SA commenters, at least, are in it for the longer haul, but that's just my hunch.
    Apr 3 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) gets another $1K price target, this time from the "ax" on the stock, Gene Munster, who lifts his official target from $718 to $910, but says it could reach $1K in 2014. Shares +0.8% premarket.  [View news story]
    As someone who's long AAPL, I hope these guys are right! Re the two comments above, I don't think most writers on SA are trying to drive down the price; most know they aren't moving more than a handful of traders either way. It strikes me far more that the negative articles that focus on things like Apple's closed system, Tim Cook's emerging management style, etc, is either sour grapes or trying to prove a point that's been hopelessly lost by this time.
    Apr 3 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't expect any more ease out of the ECB at tomorrow's policy meeting. Instead, look for President Draghi to use his press conference to throw the Germans a bone by reminding governments they have been a respite by the central bank and to use the time wisely.  [View news story]
    That's a good one re "use the time wisely." It's like telling spoiled children who've never had any parental discipline to stop jumping up and down on the bed. They can't do it. They can't even understand why they should stop doing it.
    Apr 3 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone finmins are meeting today in Copenhagen, where they're expected to agree to increase the eurozone's firewall, although Finland's Jutta Urpilainen says the projected figure of €940B is too high. The Irish want €1T. Either way, more of the money could be needed for Greece, whose PM, Lucas Papademos, admits may require a third bailout.  [View news story]
    I read an article recently -- sorry, can't recall where -- comparing the EU to post-Tito Yugoslavia. In key respects this is a good analogy, removing the military aspect. Breakup inevitable, but of course can't say when! Wish I could. But I don't think it will be all that long in coming.
    Mar 30 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death Of The Gold Bull Market? [View article]
    MC: I completely agree with you. My comment above was what we should do, not what I expect we will do! I'm quite pessimistic that what needs to be done WILL be done.
    Mar 28 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why Investors Should Give The Company Back Its Cash [View article]
    Nice try -- but you're way off base. Apple spends just over 2% on R&D, somewhat down in recent years, and this tiny percentage has yielded incredible product dividends in recent years. No way the dividend even comes close to cutting into their R&D allocation, even were Apple to raise it to 10% of its spending.
    Mar 28 11:22 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death Of The Gold Bull Market? [View article]
    kohalakid above has an excellent point: "When the Fed starts raising interest rates, the cost to the US to finance their debt rises dramatically. The US financed all their $15 trillion in debt at a cost of just about 2% last year, or $300 billion. What happens if rates rise to 5%??"

    When interest rates start rising again, and they surely will given all the factors at play here, there is only one way -- even with economic growth at decent levels -- that we can finance the debt: cut spending, which has grown dramatically since 2009 but has steadily increased for decades. This should not be a political point of any contention, although of course it is given today's upside-down priorities and bizarro world politics. Yet even the Ryan plan only slows down the growth of spending. We need real cuts, not cuts from the built-in baseline growth. Only then can we restart the economic growth engine while getting our out-of-control debt to more manageable levels.
    Mar 28 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ahead of elections expected (but not yet scheduled) in about a month, fringe parties in Greece - ranging from Communists to neo-Nazis - are registering 50% in polls. The political establishment - New Democracy and Pasok - are at just 35-40% vs. the combined 75% of the vote won in 2009. "A recipe for chaos," says a political consultant. (see also)  [View news story]
    Except Greece can't afford to take over Europe...
    Mar 28 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The likelihood of a euro break-up remains low, says Fitch, concluding the costs of such would be too great, plus the LTRO has saved the day for now. Despite the conventionality of the conclusions, the agency's Eurozone Sovereign Snapshot is a handy report, covering in some detail each of the euro states. (full .pdf)  [View news story]
    The eurozone breakup is coming, and the euro will be defunct sooner rather than later. The union is a political Rube Goldberg scheme that cannot hold together for cultural, political, social, and (clearly) economic reasons. I'm long EUO for what it's worth.
    Mar 27 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Death Of The Gold Bull Market? [View article]
    Isn't there at least some tension between two of the author's comments? This one: "With gold currently very oversold on many metrics, and sitting on the long term trend line support, the risk/reward of owning gold here is fairly limited."

    It's the 'reward' part of this sentence that conflicts with the author's following point: "I have done my best today to lay out the case that gold, both technically and fundamentally, is in the right place for continued ownership, adding to existing positions. or implementing new ones."
    Mar 27 10:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Those excited about Apple's (AAPL) dividend might want to cast their minds back to what happened to Microsoft (MSFT) when it bowed to pressure and started payouts in early 2003. "Microsoft within two years quickly moved from a growth company to a boring, fuddy-duddy, income-producing company," says Villere partner George Young.  [View news story]
    An advertisement not to take advice from this guy or his company.
    Mar 21 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Steve Jobs Era Officially Over, But Should You Sell Apple Stock? [View article]
    Rocco, just a few months ago you were singing the praises of Tim Cook in an article at SA called "Why Tim Cook Might Be A Better CEO For Apple Than Steve Jobs," complimenting him for doing some things a bit differently than Steve Jobs ("Cook appears at least partially focused on righting some apparent wrongs that rarely got talked about, but could have brought the empire down when the magic runs out.").

    It is surprising to me that you've written this article without having read Isaacson's book. Yes, we all know that Jobs hated dividends, but even he might have eventually reached the same decision had he been alive to see the stock go from $377 to $600 in the past five months. Jobs himself admitted on more than one occasion that he was not infallible and made some key mistakes -- and I say this as a big Jobs fan. Read the book!
    Mar 20 01:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment