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10 Comments

    • Apple's a Buy on This Dip [view article]
      Gotta love the big banks. All of them think the stock is a buy, but the tape says nobody's buying, including the big banks. Jan 23 11:20 AM
    • E*Trade Will Recover [view article]
      Active traders: have you tried InteractiveBrokers? I opened an account there a few months back, on a lark, and have been very pleased so far. Major improvements over the ETFC and OXPS platforms:

      1) Real-time quotes only. No stale data. I still maintain an ETFC account, but when I trade there I use real-time quotes from IB to set my price.

      2) Commissions are nearly free. Seriously, go check their schedule. Trades that cost me $13-$20 at ETFC and OXPS are more like $1-$2 at IB. That's not a typo. Both equities and options are much cheaper.

      3) More trade types. If you have ever wanted to enter a trailing stop against an option position (not possible AFAIK at ETFC), you need to look at IB.

      4) No ridiculous minimums. I dislike the idea of Power E*Trade because it dictates the terms of my trading. Maybe I hit the minimum, maybe not. I need the market to dictate my trading, not my broker. IB lets you do all the trades you want without worrying about the # of trades you've done this quarter.

      Not sure why more folks aren't using IB.       Jan 20 05:26 PM
    • Apple's Post MacWorld Drop - More to Come or Buying Opportunity? [view article]
      samij --

      fair enough re: the iPod expandability. You didn't address the "too expensive and underpowered" bits, which were some pretty big knocks against iPod 1.0. Remember how it lagged in capacity, and still cost more?

      Re: expandability & computers, consider the actual utilization cycle of PCs post-2000. Almost nobody upgrades their laptops, and with good reason. In a laptop you can basically upgrade two components: disk and memory. Most laptops on the market top out at 2GB, which the Air ships with standard. Ergo, you will by default not need an upgrade to RAM. Clearly the disk is limited in a big way. But even for the person doing e.g. Java/Oracle development for an enterprise, 80GB will generally be enough to scrape by. This is a work computer, priced for workers, so they will live with the fact that they can't keep their whole media library on it.

      You are also not addressing the other "power" issue, which is where the Air actually is overpowered relative to its comp: battery life. Again, the value prop is a 3lb machine that I can use to work from NYC to LAX. Nobody else is selling this value prop, at any price.       Jan 16 02:24 PM
    • Apple's iDongle Should Go Back to the Drawing Board [view article]
      Agree that DVD is irrelevant. You either have a player already, or you could just buy the movie on your AppleTV. Solved.

      That said, DVR would make this a killer must-have device. My guess is they haven't done it because DVR is more about the ongoing service than the product itself, and it's harder for Apple to add value there.       Jan 16 02:12 PM
    • Apple's Post MacWorld Drop - More to Come or Buying Opportunity? [view article]
      MB1 --

      Totally disagree, in 3 parts. For starters, take your criticisms: "brilliant design, ahead of it's time, too expensive, restrictive upgrade, under powered" Which of these did not apply to the initial iPod? Also, what do you think Air v2 or v3 looks like? I think it has 64GB+ flash standard at under $2k. It might have a larger screen. They will shrink the logic board and the components to increase battery size and aim for 7 hours of battery life. In 3 years, the Air should be roughly at parity with today's MacBook Pro's, only weighing a fraction as much and having roughly double the battery life. The Air is the platform for the next generation in notebook computing. The competition doesn't even have prototypes this ambitious, much less actual product.

      Second, this will not be a giant mass market product (until they do a MacBook Air Lite) due to its price point and feature set (more than the mass market wants/needs). But neither is e.g. the BMW 5-series. Somehow, BMW makes tons of money selling it. I wager Apple will also make tons of money selling the Air.

      Third, hardcore techies will switch to this. We currently expect to pay around $2k+ for a laptop, no matter the vendor. (We can't get the model they give to the sales guys that only runs Office, so we need 2GB of memory, etc.) For that $2k, we get a machine that weighs up to 12lbs. Our employers then need us on a 5:30am to Dallas, so that we can start billing by 10am. 12lbs is just about too much to lug in a briefcase, which is why you can spot techies in airports by looking for adults dressed in business casual wearing backpacks (which you need to carry 12lbs for any length of time). So while you may think the Air is overpriced, etc. what you are really concluding is that "I am not in the market segment for this product," as is probably also the case with the XServe or Sun's products. Don't let this cloud your judgment.

      What Apple is offering is a sub-$2k laptop that will last through a transcontinental flight. I am not aware of any other laptop that is claiming this. Note for those who never leave NYC: this is a Big Deal. They are offering a 3lb laptop that is up to hardcore techie stuff like programming. (Note to analysts who have never worked in IT: CPU speed is meaningless for the stuff that most IT folks do, but they DO need memory.) They didn't talk about it, but I am guessing the flash-based Air gets 6+ hours of battery life (duh, no moving parts). At $3k this is still pricey, but I assure you that there is a large set of people who have been waiting for exactly this machine.

      Oh, and they run Windows too. So if you want the thinnest Windows laptop, with the longest battery life, this is also it.       Jan 16 02:14 AM
    • Apple Passes IBM in Market Cap; Cisco's Next [view article]
      John --

      Astute comment. Could I rephrase a bit?

      Take 1: (in 2002, with AAPL ~$163/share below its current price) APPLE stock is way overvalued in my opinion. ARE IPOD or MAC they way of the future? APPLE'S stock price is based on successive new products. When new products stop being innovative their stock will drop like a rock. What is innovative about a rehashed OS X or an mp3 walkman like the one creative makes?

      Take 2: MICROSOFT stock is way overvalued in my opinion. ARE WINDOWS or OFFICE they way of the future? MICROSOFT'S stock price is based on successive new products. When new products stop being innovative their stock will drop like a rock. What is innovative about a rehashed DOS or a thin game console with built in wifi?

      I could have written this about any growth company (exercise for the reader: fill in the blanks for DNA, GSK, NOK, MOT). Are they all overvalued? More to the point, as we are presumably Seeking Alpha here, what do I care about something that might or might not happen in the future? If their innovation pipeline stalls 5 years out, doesn't that mean I can potentially outperform for 5 years until then? And if so, what have you added in your analysis that eventually every company's growth slows?

      I also note you didn't include a catalyst for innovation in their products drying up, and therefore I must conclude that your believe is that their stock will drop like a rock when some unforeseen event occurs. Thanks for that, I will apply that logic to the rest of the list, conclude they are all overvalued, and move all my money into T-Bills.       Jan 16 02:08 AM
    • Citi's Chutzpah Takes a Bite out of Apple [view article]
      Paul --

      Excellent post. Not sure why other posters think the stock dropped because the iPhone didn't outsell RIMM + NOK in its first 6 months on the market.       Jan 16 02:07 AM
    • 4 Million iPhones - Not Good Enough [view article]
      ...noting that Todd's disclaimer doesn't show a position either way in AAPL...

      I need a better bear case on AAPL, ideally by someone who can identify without prodding: 1) RIMM's time to achieve 36% market share 2) AAPL's time to achieve market share equivalent to Palm + all the Windows mobile devices 3) what Android is, and why it means Google is not entering this market at all 4) when CY08 ends.       Jan 16 02:03 AM
    • MacBook Air Tops $3000 with Solid State Drive [view article]
      Eric --

      Any data on how much the SSD extends the battery life? I'm thinking the SSD isn't just cool, but useful (i.e. if it lets you work all the way across the Atlantic).       Jan 16 01:57 AM
    • Too Many Zeroes For Paul Krugman [view article]
      Tom (the blogger) started it. Here's his quote of Krugman:

      “the bursting of the housing bubble means that someone, somewhere, has to accept several trillion dollars in losses.”

      Tom then proceeds to equate "someone, somewhere" with "mortgage-holding banks." The other posters correctly interpreted "someone, somewhere" to include all such someones. (Presumably, Tom wouldn't count a home seller who takes a loss on his home.)

      Given Tom's misinterpretation of the quote underlying his attack on Krugman, it's not surprising his argument doesn't hold up to scrutiny.       Oct 24 10:21 PM
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