F. J. Taylor

Trade Apple Like a Fool

Mr. Bass is right about the state of the market in general, and the deteriorating economy being unfavorable for any non-essentials.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Apple continues to slide during this market - but not because it is over-valued or any of the other usual reasons.

However, if it slides, it will mainly be because "the market" seems to be composed of manic-depressives who practice voodoo instead of looking at fundamentals, and because of articles slighting Apple stock, not because of any weakness in the company or products.

Obviously the market is down, and we are in a depression IMO (which, BTW, I saw coming over two years ago and cashed out of a lot of my holdings while they were high - except for half my Apple, which I kept -and so I am now playing with "house money")

However, Mikey is incorrect to state that the iPhone is a "trinket" of "jewelry" - while its usual superb Apple styling may give it that appearance, it is actually one of the most remarkable electronic devices in modern times - far from being a mere "smart-phone" or glorified MP3 player (which it is), it is the first true MID (Mobile Internet Device) - and a hell of a lot more besides. With the native apps, and the burgeoning third-party apps, it has an enormous amount of potential to become one of the greatest mind-tools ever developed.

It is truly astonishing - so much so, that even I, a long-time Apple user and booster, was amazed when I finally got my 3G recently - I knew of some of its capabilities, but was blown away when I finally got into the workings!! I don't have time to detail the device and all its capabilities here, but go to the Apple site and take the tour - or better yet, walk into an Apple or AT&T store (or your local Walmart or Best Buy) and get a demo.

I have also purchased one for my step-daughter (my step-son got one of the first ones), and am planning to get one for my wife shortly as well. I will be switching our lines to AT&T from my long-time favorite Verizon (albeit reluctantly, as I have been with them for over 12 years), and that means AT&T (and Apple) will be getting monthly income of about $125 for two years. I am not the only one I know who is doing this.

Apple has enormous potential to revolutionize the entire phone AND computer industry (they are already inspiring iPhone wannabees from all the major and many minor players) - and I believe they will.

While I agree not everyone will be able to afford one, especially now, that has always been the case with Apple products - though I personally wish everyone could have them - they are such a pleasure to use!!

And of course, these are only one product - there also are the iPods (especially the brilliant Touch, which was my "gateway drug" into iPhones), Air, the MacBook line, the iTunes music and video business, and all the marvelous hardware and software they are so justly famed for - far easier to use, superbly styled, and with killer customer service and support - and a lot more besides!

My own intention is to hold my remaining Apple stock - and buy more when I think it has hit bottom. Of course, this is only my take and strategy - everyone should think for themselves and do what you need to for your individual circumstances.

As to the economy and society in general - I hope we will all be around to see a better time and place than that which is currently shaping - but knowing people and history, I am always a bit dubious. Good luck to you all.

Cash Position Best for Apple Investor

Well, I hate to say it but Zach is right in some ways about this.

Despite Apple's excellent products and position, this market is tanking big time - as I figured it had to some years since. The only things keeping it afloat were the housing bubble (which I also saw coming and sold up while the getting was good) and of course, Greenspan's "irrational exuberance." (Oh yeah - and the M-I complex's war profiteering outfits...)

The Street is rather like a bipolar case off their meds at the best of times, and in this situation and economy, more so.

However, as Baron Rothschild is said to have remarked; "Buy when the blood is running in the streets." (One hopes he was being metaphorical, and that it doesn't actually come to that...)

However, my bet long term remains on Apple. I sold off half my shares when they were high. As I had bought low, they paid for the lot, with a few bucks profit, so its "house money" now - and I plan to keep what I have, and when I think it has bottomed out, get more.

If you can't stand the heat, then by all means get out of the kitchen - all these amateurs and day-traders have helped create the havoc in the market (along with some corporate greed-heads at various levels and their political accomplices).

Like Zach, I don't anticipate any speedy recovery from this, so don't bet your bottom dollar on ANY stock - unless you can afford to lose it. Remember, the market is just like Vegas - a gamble - but if you have done your homework and due diligence, AND are lucky... you may come out on the other side (whenever and wherever it is) in one piece.

As to the notion that cash is somehow "safer" - don't forget what "cash" is - paper - with NOTHING behind it anymore. So as to gold and silver, own some (the real thing, not "shares"). Same goes with food - own some (real) food, not just shares. If the foreign investor trends continue, and any more oil producers yank the petrodollar, be aware that the BIG crash will come sooner rather than later, as all the US has left as a real ace in the hole is its military machine...

Meantime, good luck to all of you.

The Screws Tighten on Apple Investors

There are a number of things to remember about Apple - first is that it is just beginning to regain its once dominant role. These articles show what is starting to happen everywhere, in both business and personal use:

www.appleinsider.com

'Huge demand' forces O2 to pull plug on iPhone 3G pre-orders
O2 began taking pre-orders for Apple's new iPhone 3G through its website early Monday but was forced halt the service just hours later as UK consumers flooded the carrier's servers and quickly consumed initial supplies.

German publisher drops 12,000 PCs for Mac
One of Germany's largest newspaper publishers will become one of Apple's largest-ever customers when it converts all of its 12,000 computers from Windows systems to Macs. Also, the latest beta of Flash Player 10 promises to boost sluggish performance with Apple computers.

Multiply this trend world-wide, and factor in Asia (as FreeRange mentions above), Apple's huge bankroll (18 billion and rising), excellent products and strong following, and you see a world growth that will off-set the market declines that are almost inevitable.

Will a market crash occur? IMO, indubitably. The economy is in deep kimchi at this point, due to a number of factors. Will it be world-wide? Almost certainly, as we are all bound together now, like it or not. Will it be long, deep, and painful? Again, almost inevitably.

As to stocks in general - my advice would be to stay out of most - but as with all declines and even crashes, good, solid, stocks with good potential are the ones to be in. You pick the one with the most potential and best fundamentals, and buy when it is low. Aside from the "basics of life" stocks (food, water, etc.), there are few I would recommend - Apple is one of them.

As to Mr. jesselivermo's comment - I hardly think Apple is "over-hyped" - his comment smacks of a disgruntled PC fan, though it is true that nothing is immune from the coming storm.

I have Apple, which has more than doubled since I bought it and plan to hold it. (Note: I did sell enough to cover my investment when it was higher, so I am now playing with "house money" - something I always advise when investing or gambling - both of which share similarities.)

Under The Radar News - Friday

Eli, you always have things of interest, are a compendium of information and (mostly!) good ideas, and I love your columns. That said, you are way off the mark on iPhone vs. Google.

First, as Miner himself said; "That's for a device that doesn't even exist yet." He's right - it doesn't - and it may never exist. (Though I tend to think it will emerge eventually.)

I am a big believer in the Open Source movement - it has some remarkable people doing remarkable things that need to be done.

However, I don't see Android (if and when it emerges) as being even a match for iPhone, let alone a killer. The iPhone already has generated some self-proclaimed "iPhone killers" a la the iPod - but we see how far they went. (What's a "Zune" again...?)

Put simply, a hodge-podge of Open Source software for a mobile device is simply no match for the smooth, slick, well-integrated iPhone. This is all the more relevant because the Apple OS and Mac is once more a growing market share, thanks to iPod, iTunes - and especially thanks to Microsoft's Vista, which is driving even die-hard MS users away in droves - and into the arms of Apple. (I just helped yet another life-long Windows tech convert the other day!)

It's like the difference between Linux and OS X - both are Unix based, and have safer, faster, and more secure operation than Windows ever did or ever will. Both have nice GUIs (now that the interfaces on Linux have been substantially improved). But if you want to run a Unix based machine with the best GUI out there - you want a Mac!

Likewise, if you want a great mobile device designed for web-based work, and that also has a lot of terrific native software supported by the best support team out there, and that will seamlessly interface with the growing number of Macs - you get iPhone - this a no-brainer.

That said, I believe there will be a market for Android, and that it fills a much-needed gap. I also hope it spurs Apple into some much-needed reforms of the iPhone and their business model (such as being locked to one provider).

However, when I buy, it will be iPhone. (BTW, my stepson [another die-hard Windows convert!] just did - and he loves it!!!)