S&P 500 Earnings vs. Valuation Matrix [View article]
Is it true that the S&P 500/SPY usually peaks around $150ish.....
and is it true the S&P 500/SPY usually bottome around $40-$60ish ???
Therefore we still have some downside ahead and will likely reach those lows sometime during '2009... before turning and start the recovery process (slow crawl) back up the the peaks, which usually takes 5 years....... then the wash cycle (another bubble of some kind) repeats itself ???
Greed, When Others Are Fearful, Is Good [View article]
What I've learned over my 25 years of stock market investing is that it appears the bulls and bears work within 5 year cycles, looking back over the past 20 years (S&P 500/charts) beyond the 1987 market crash...
Approximately every 5 years or so the market rises and turns and it falls... (because of a variety of reasons), and from what I've observed this cycle hasn't changed just different circumstances... therefore if disiplined investors followed the wave of the 5 year cycle, how can you go wrong???
1988 - 1994 Bear Market (get out of long stock positions) 1995 - 2000 Bull Market (invest in long stocks) 2001 - 2003 Bear Market (get out of long stock positions) 2003 - 2008 Bull Market (invest in long stocks) 2008 - ? Bear Market (how long will this downdraft last?)
I would like to see a new list... it's posible a few of the sectors mentioned within the article, such as Homebuilders Newspapers, Banks, Hotel, Gaming etc...were listed Green, but by mistake... these should fall in the Red zone... so I do hope a new corrected sector list is offered over the weekend.
What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [View article]
E.Savitz...
a writer that's very, very negative in regards to the Solar Industry, it's as if he'd prefer to see all Solar companies not only China stocks down and out on their backs.....hmmmm
In this ever changing and increasingly perplexing world, many Americans peer into their future with uncertainty and confusion. I am convinced that a widespread deception is at the core of this confusion. Modern day Americans have been duped and are in dire need of clear teaching and leadership about the times we live in.
We in America have been led to believe that Americans will escape suffering and hard times. Where does this belief come from? To begin with, it evolves from “life as we have always known it.” Our generation has experienced one of the most prosperous eras of any nation in history. As a whole, we don’t have a clue as to what real suffering and difficulties are; we just know the “good life.” Additionally, the popularity of all the “super success books” focusing on easy wealth accumulation, have diverted Americans from observing the events unfolding right before our eyes. We have been fooled into thinking that America guarantees us a soft life because we are # 1. But this deception leaves Americans confused, asking, “Where is the good life?” Why is this happening to me? This isn’t what I’ve been promised!” As a whole, the American people of today have bought into the American Dream & the Gordon Gecko entitlement philosophy, hook, line, and sinker. However, neither history nor reality gives credence to this popular “easy times for life” gospel of today. It is not consistent with current trends, or history itself.
And what does history demonstrate? In 1900, Great Britain ruled the world, fully convinced she would forever retain her supremacy. However, gradually over the next hundred years, her standard of living fell by 50% compared to the rest of the developing world. Meanwhile, due to our nation’s industrial productivity and military might, America’s standard of living surpassed Great Britain, more than tenfold. By 2000, Great Britain and America had merely swapped places as world rulers. Do we really have any reason to believe we will maintain our preeminent position? Or will America, like Great Britain, fall to the wayside and become a far lesser entity in the world? All current indications point to America falling from the top, and falling hard.
It behooves us to contemplate the fast-approaching storm that will soon hit all of America, especially families and the poor. Out of the East, China and India are fast becoming economic superpowers, soon to claim America’s status as world leader (as America once did to Great Britain). China’s GDP (gross domestic production) is currently running at about 12% -15% a year. At this rate, China will add approximately 300-400 million middle class consumers over the next ten years, all with surplus money to spend. This scenario will create enormous upward pressure on commodity prices such as gasoline, wheat, corn, cotton, lumber, steel etc. Furthermore, India is on track to add another 100 million middle class consumers to the planet and on top of that, there are over one hundred smaller, but expanding, economies in nations such as Russia and Brazil with a current GDP of at least 3% - 4%. Collectively, we’re looking at close to one billion consumers poised and ready to purchase our precious commodities. At the same time, globally, we are losing approximately 38,000 acres of arable land a year while adding approximately 100 million people per year. What will the end result be? The “pinch” Americans now feel at the check stand will escalate into an “economic tsunami.” Our nation will suffer hardship never thought possible in America.
To further confuse people, politician after politician, President after President, keeps promising Americans a better future, a future they cannot produce. And Americans, so used to good times, desperately cling to the promises, not wanting to face a life of less that seems to be inevitable.
Now more than ever my fellow Americans, we need to live wisely, build community, save and invest our recourses, and adjust quickly to the global changes of our world.
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October's End: Reversal Patterns Are Global [View article]
S&P 500 Earnings vs. Valuation Matrix [View article]
and is it true the S&P 500/SPY usually bottome around $40-$60ish ???
Therefore we still have some downside ahead and will likely reach those lows sometime during '2009... before turning and start the recovery process (slow crawl) back up the the peaks, which usually takes 5 years....... then the wash cycle (another bubble of some kind) repeats itself ???
If history repeats!
Greed, When Others Are Fearful, Is Good [View article]
S&P 500 - peaks around 14000 and up.....sell high.
Greed, When Others Are Fearful, Is Good [View article]
S&P 500 - bottoms between 8000-4000.....buy low.
Revolving cycles???
Greed, When Others Are Fearful, Is Good [View article]
Approximately every 5 years or so the market rises and turns and it falls... (because of a variety of reasons), and from what I've observed this cycle hasn't changed just different circumstances... therefore if disiplined investors followed the wave of the 5 year cycle, how can you go wrong???
1988 - 1994 Bear Market (get out of long stock positions)
1995 - 2000 Bull Market (invest in long stocks)
2001 - 2003 Bear Market (get out of long stock positions)
2003 - 2008 Bull Market (invest in long stocks)
2008 - ? Bear Market (how long will this downdraft last?)
Avoiding Doomed Sectors, Redux [View article]
Thanks
Again With the Financials - Fast Money Recap (8/29/08) [View article]
What's Up with the China Solar Stocks [View article]
a writer that's very, very negative in regards to the Solar Industry, it's as if he'd prefer to see all Solar companies not only China stocks down and out on their backs.....hmmmm
5 Alternative Energy Stocks Worth Researching [View article]
Is the Bear Hibernating Already? Doubtful [View article]
The Markets Will Reward the Patient [View article]
great article and analysis, I will patiently await more to come...
Thanks
Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past [View article]
you are spot on, great commen and or reply....
America on the Edge [View article]
In this ever changing and increasingly perplexing world, many Americans peer into their future with uncertainty and confusion. I am convinced that a widespread deception is at the core of this confusion. Modern day Americans have been duped and are in dire need of clear teaching and leadership about the times we live in.
We in America have been led to believe that Americans will escape suffering and hard times. Where does this belief come from? To begin with, it evolves from “life as we have always known it.” Our generation has experienced one of the most prosperous eras of any nation in history. As a whole, we don’t have a clue as to what real suffering and difficulties are; we just know the “good life.” Additionally, the popularity of all the “super success books” focusing on easy wealth accumulation, have diverted Americans from observing the events unfolding right before our eyes. We have been fooled into thinking that America guarantees us a soft life because we are # 1. But this deception leaves Americans confused, asking, “Where is the good life?” Why is this happening to me? This isn’t what I’ve been promised!” As a whole, the American people of today have bought into the American Dream & the Gordon Gecko entitlement philosophy, hook, line, and sinker. However, neither history nor reality gives credence to this popular “easy times for life” gospel of today. It is not consistent with current trends, or history itself.
And what does history demonstrate? In 1900, Great Britain ruled the world, fully convinced she would forever retain her supremacy. However, gradually over the next hundred years, her standard of living fell by 50% compared to the rest of the developing world. Meanwhile, due to our nation’s industrial productivity and military might, America’s standard of living surpassed Great Britain, more than tenfold. By 2000, Great Britain and America had merely swapped places as world rulers. Do we really have any reason to believe we will maintain our preeminent position? Or will America, like Great Britain, fall to the wayside and become a far lesser entity in the world? All current indications point to America falling from the top, and falling hard.
It behooves us to contemplate the fast-approaching storm that will soon hit all of America, especially families and the poor. Out of the East, China and India are fast becoming economic superpowers, soon to claim America’s status as world leader (as America once did to Great Britain). China’s GDP (gross domestic production) is currently running at about 12% -15% a year. At this rate, China will add approximately 300-400 million middle class consumers over the next ten years, all with surplus money to spend. This scenario will create enormous upward pressure on commodity prices such as gasoline, wheat, corn, cotton, lumber, steel etc. Furthermore, India is on track to add another 100 million middle class consumers to the planet and on top of that, there are over one hundred smaller, but expanding, economies in nations such as Russia and Brazil with a current GDP of at least 3% - 4%. Collectively, we’re looking at close to one billion consumers poised and ready to purchase our precious commodities. At the same time, globally, we are losing approximately 38,000 acres of arable land a year while adding approximately 100 million people per year. What will the end result be? The “pinch” Americans now feel at the check stand will escalate into an “economic tsunami.” Our nation will suffer hardship never thought possible in America.
To further confuse people, politician after politician, President after President, keeps promising Americans a better future, a future they cannot produce. And Americans, so used to good times, desperately cling to the promises, not wanting to face a life of less that seems to be inevitable.
Now more than ever my fellow Americans, we need to live wisely, build community, save and invest our recourses, and adjust quickly to the global changes of our world.
Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises [View article]
My mistake I meant to post the symbols: SPWR, ENER etc...