Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • How Low Will The Stock Market Go? [View article]
    Mr Kostohryz

    Let me start off my comment by stating that I have read every article you have published on SA. You are an excellent writer and are able to article to articulate your thoughts well. I can understand why your articles are frequently chosen as editor's picks. You also always do a wonderful and convincing job of supporting your position. You should be teaching economics at Yale. Unfortunately your ability to predict the markets is abysmal. I know this might come across as mean-spirited but that is really not my intent. I should also point out that my own attempts to forecast the market have proven equally poor. I have come to the conclusion that you might actually be too intelligent for your own good. Like myself, you appear to be a creature of Vulcan logic. Unfortunately, I have come to realize that such traits have little to do with understanding the emotions of fear and greed. I know that you have spent a great deal of time reflecting on your past predictions, even penning insightful introspections on past mistakes. These are certainly admirable. After many years of reading your work I have also come to the conclusion that your most under rated contribution might actually be as a contrarian indicator. If it remains reliable, your treatises might provide some of the most tradable information on SA.
    Feb 4, 2014. 09:18 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP And Personal Income [View article]
    I don't have any formal education in economics but they the way I interpret all of this is that corporate America has again found a way to increase productivity, make themselves rich in the process and really stick to it to their employees and the nation as a whole. Workers are pushed to the maximum of efficiency or risk losing their jobs. Employers know the situation well. Don't like your job or how much we pay you, their is a hundred more waiting in line that would be happy to have it. Corporations know that it is an international market now. They have moved passed depending on domestic consumption. They can even import cheap labor if they want. I disagree with those that claim that the current situation cannot continue. There will be no substantial increases in personal income for the majority of Americans for the foreseeable future. The economic boom that everyone is predicting will benefit only the select few. We have been here before but everyone forgets. Try reading Upton Sinclair's The Jungle. The early 1900's was also a time of impressive "productivity" set against a backdrop of embarrassing exploitation and poverty. Income inequality and economic elitism flourished as it does today. The only thing that interrupted the corporate takeover of America at that time was two world wars. The government had to take over industrial production for the war effort. The interest of the public good took center stage and it lasted for a couple of generations. That period of respite from corporate greed is over. Ironically, the financial crises that the elite help engineer has allowed the gilded age to pick up where it left off. Corporations now have an "appropriately compliant" labor force that they can exploit to their hearts content. I fully expect their to be a growing discrepancy between GDP and personal income. Americans will be forced to work harder, produce more with less and less in return.
    Feb 1, 2014. 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama And Lew Say This Is Serious - Are They Just Grandstanding Or Is This Time Different? [View article]
    I agree with your comment that substantial change in societies usually only occur secondary to crisis. But rarely does such a crisis occur in such a predictable and manufactured manner. Also, by definition, such a crisis will have to be almost beyond anyone's control. This is not the same as underestimating the consequences of certain actions. I do agree that this could drag out a lot longer than anyone was expecting. It could also produce significant economic and market volatility, but it will not result in any fundamental changes. An exit strategy exists even if the parties involved are too stubborn to make current use of it. Politics is the cause of this "crisis" and politics will be what ends it. Both Republicans and Democrats are convinced that blame will be assigned to the other. Eventually blame will be assigned and when that occurs this political game will be over. This is simply a game of chicken and one side is going to eventually throw in the towel when the political temperature gets too hot. True crises that cause paradigm shifts are usually unexpected and unalterable. It is this inability to alter the inevitable that allows change to occur. Otherwise, we as humans will always revert back to the status quo.

    Overall I greatly enjoyed the article. You took a very balanced approach which is quite refreshing.
    Oct 6, 2013. 02:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Not 'Printing Money' [View article]
    This is exactly the point I was trying to make above. You are not going to convince me that the banks cannot leverage these reserves to support their speculative investing activity.
    Mar 19, 2013. 07:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Not 'Printing Money' [View article]
    I remain unconvinced that these reserves are of no importance to the big banks. I understand that they may not matter to the head of lending, but that is not what I am inquiring about. May question relates to the big banks investment actitivites, more specifically how it affects their ability to invest and bid up the price of equities. If these reserves frees up the banks to engage in ever more speculative investing behavior then the effects are very real, particularly to those of us participating in this market.
    Mar 19, 2013. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Not 'Printing Money' [View article]
    A question to the author. Anyone else feel free to answer. I understand that increasing bank reserves doesn't necessarily increase lending and that banks have supposedly been sitting on these reserves because no one is interested in borrowing. What about the the banks using the reserves to invest and take greater risks in the market? The data I have seen sugggests that most of the stock market volume is due to institutional investing. No doubt the big banks with all of their reserves are a part of this. Why would the big banks be satisfied with the paltry interest the Fed is paying? If this in fact is what is occuring then it has the same effect as money printing and explains why the market has decoupled from the real economy.
    Mar 19, 2013. 08:51 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Preferred Stocks: Strong New Issues In November 2012 [View article]
    Yes, PFXF. I looked at it but volumes are low. I ended going with PFF but remain concerned about the heavy financials exposure.
    Dec 5, 2012. 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Real Economy [View article]
    I hate these infomercials. Peddle your wares somewhere else.
    Oct 27, 2012. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ineffective Quantitative Easing Will Lead To Fiscal Stimulus Measures [View article]
    "What might explain this is that the newly printed money is landing in trading accounts of large financial institutions but is not going any further in the form of loans, and the vast majority of individuals don't have sufficient financial asset holdings to experience any wealth effect."

    Probably the most well stated and least discussed reason why QE hasn't worked. Simply giving money to the banks has only allowed them to gamble that money on ever riskier trading activities (JP Morgan anyone?) benefiting only themselves. Oh, and a few crumbs left over for us retail investors. I think Paul Krugman might be right. The mere mention of his name drives the radical right insane. "QE hasn't worked, why is more any better!!?!!" is the standard response. What they don't understand (or don't want to acknowledge) is that what we need is QE in a DIFFERENT form, not just more of the same. Government money needs to directly go into activities that produce jobs. The infrastructure of this country is crumbling and we are giving money to the banks. What a travesty!! In my own community we have bridges and roads that have far exceeded their useful life and no money for even basic repairs. What ever happened to the public works discussions? If we are going to run up our deficit let's at least put the money where it will do some real good. It might just work. Can't be any worse than giving it to the banks who really have no loyalty to this country or anyone but themselves.
    Jul 15, 2012. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock Market Complacency On Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    Amen brother, Amen! I love you man! I love the way you keep preaching the faith. A man of the cloth if ever I met one. These are evil times and the world is in desperate need of a teacher such as you. But I do have a sin to confess. While I know that the market is a devilish illusion I have simply been unable to resist partaking in the debauchery. I confess that I have gambled
    substantial coin at Satin's casino and walked away with a very substantially sinful sum. I know that all of my profits don't make it
    right but I just couldn't resist. Those others, they were just having too much fun. I know the judgment day is coming for the Bible tells me so. I'll try to be good and keep to the Cash Faith. Well....let's just say I'll try to be good.

    Keep preaching James! The truth will set us free and I know you speak the truth.
    Jul 7, 2012. 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls In Control Despite Europe's 'Napkin Approach' [View article]
    No question the bulls are in control. They way they see it good or bad news the market goes up. Its a no lose situation and they know it. I say let the bulls run. Problem for them is where are they going to go? They can take this market up but how high and for how long?As the market starts going up the situation starts getting risky because it will all be fake. I can see the headlines now "S&P makes new highs as country heads into recession" Everyone will have their itchy hands on the trigger looking nervously around. As soon as the first shot is fired it will be like a stampede with the bulls this time leading the way down. Can't wait to short this rally. So let the bulls run and enjoy the show.
    Jun 23, 2012. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks To Fall On Possible Extension Of Operation Twist [View article]
    I'm with you on this one and have decided to put some money on the line. Having said this, I think there is a new drug dealer coming to town and its the ECB. My prediction, market drop due to Fed disappointment but subsequent big rally from major announcement coming out of Europe. No idea as to timing but any drop will be short-lived. If I'm right will be closing out shorts soon and expecting big time rush Euro style. Won't solve anything but sure will feel good.
    Jun 20, 2012. 07:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Spain All The Time [View article]
    My thoughts exactly. I would have taken this article much more seriously if it were not for all the jet setting and name dropping bravado. "What is he trying to sell me?" is what comes to mind when I read those that write in this fashion. No doubt some expensive newsletter or subscription. I am not impressed!
    Apr 1, 2012. 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Fundamentals Shining Again - Time To Cover Shorts [View article]
    Listen to the Squid and do just the opposite. Works every time.
    Mar 31, 2012. 12:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Production And Demand Outlook [View article]

    Thank you for the update. Just one question. How can I as an individual investor take advantage of the current very low price in natural gas? I am patient and willing to wait it out for several years if necessary.
    Mar 28, 2012. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment