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  • The Biotech Compound Drug Insight  [View article]
    Very interesting article. Thank you. Actually, my long thesis for OMER is precisely based on the very findings of your article. Moreover, the use of a compound where there is an FDA-approved drug could expose the practitioner to law suits in the event of complications. Let's not forget the time, effort and cost associated with getting the FDA approval. Thank you again. I always read your articles long and short and value your views (especially on Amazon, one of your favorites!)
    Sep 2, 2015. 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Several Key Events Coming Up For Omeros  [View article]
    Well, this is just a cute response! I rest my case...
    May 30, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Several Key Events Coming Up For Omeros  [View article]
    I do not necessarily hate short sellers. In fact, I believe they have an important role to fulfill in the marketplace, especially in cases of excessive unjustified high valuations.

    But honestly, I believe there are many better short candidates out there than Omer!! [as this point in time] Let's go with your thesis that Omidria will not be as successful as predicted. Let's assume over the next 2 years that OMER will be able to capture just 10% of the market in the US (ignoring the rest of the world). This would generate revenue of around $180 million with a net profit of around $90 million. Now apply a conservative multiple of 15x and you get $1.35 billion! (just for the value of 10% market share for Omidria in the US!!!!!!!). Talk about other scenarios including higher market uptake in the US and the inclusion of royalties stream from rest of the world....

    Turning to the pipeline, it is convenient to say that it is a collection of failed assets!!! Just look at the potential of OMS721! (has been approved for compassionate use by regulators twice!). I will not talk about the potential of OMS824, which all market participants agree it is the best inhibitor in that space. Lastly, the depth of the GPCR portfolio and its future potential is mind boggling!

    The bottom line is that if you look at the history of the buildup of the short interest in OMER, it is indisputable that the bulk of this position was built much earlier at much lower prices! So, shorts are essentially stuck!! Scared of Omidria uptake information and pipeline updates!! To exit now will cause a massive spike to the price!! To further complicate matters, institutional ownership has been rising! So they are very desperate! No question about it!!
    May 30, 2015. 08:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genfit: Pivotal Phase IIb Data On NASH Offers High Risk/Reward Trade  [View article]
    Very good article. Thank you very much. I am long both ICPT and GNFT and believe there is room for both in this vast market opportunity.

    Just one clarification; I am under the impression for GNFT to meet study end points, it needs to demonstrate 1) NASH resolution and 2) No progression of Fibrosis. Does this correspond with Deutsche Bank's "Base" case?

    In terms of valuation, I believe in today's global capital markets, valuations are bound to converge. The current valuation gap reflects the inherent uncertainties associated with GNFT's Phase 2b results (binary event) and the fact that ICPT has another product about to be launched with a market opportunity of $1 Billion.

    Thank you again for a very well researched article.
    Mar 7, 2015. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opko Health: The Placebo Effect  [View article]
    Dear Sir, according to a fellow hedge fund manager "hedge funds, especially serious ones, do not post their so-called proprietary research on public forums"! I looked at your report and I am stunned at how superficial the quality of the research is, especially on the science front! If you are so confident with your research, disclose details of your position.
    Dec 11, 2013. 01:59 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Opko Health A House Of Cards?  [View article]
    It is perfectly alright to be short! That's what makes a market! In a sense, I agree with you that the recent run in OPKO stock price is too fast and too aggressive! However, absent any critical analysis of OPK's pipeline and its tremendous potential, your short thesis is very weak! The famous saying goes never short a market cap! Short deteriorating fundamentals! Knowing that there is 35 million shares short AND ALL UNDER WATER just makes me wonder how will this play out. I fear it can and probably will get ugly (especially for those that shorted from the 5-6 levels)..
    Oct 18, 2013. 12:11 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Intrepid Potash Cheap Enough?  [View article]
    Very good analysis. Thank you.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Z10 Likely To Fail, Q10 And Q5 Give Hope  [View article]
    Dear Ashraf, I live in Dubai, one of the most important markets for Blackberry (because of local and transit sales). Both the Z10 and the Q10 are extremely popular here. There are sold unlocked (without contract).Out of 30 senior executives working at our company, 25 have upgraded to the new platform; 14 to the Z10 and 11 to the Q10, and the remaining 5 still use the Bold 9900. I did try both. First, I bought a Z10 (before the Q10 was released) and boy I fell in love with it!. Now, when it comes to battery life, there is no comparison between the Z10 and the Android devices (Samsung included). And it remains simply the best and the most reliable email machine! When the Q10 was released, I could not resist it! I dare say the Q10 is probably the best smart phone I ever used. I actually bought Blackberry stock for the first time after using the new phones and having seen the strong reception here. Best of luck to all..
    Jun 17, 2013. 06:31 AM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News For The Sandstorm Siblings  [View article]
    Jason, I tend to agree with you that the Vale deal looks very unattractive given today's market. Moreover, pricing aside, SLW financial risk increased significantly after the Vale transaction because of the debt load. The thing I really like about SAND is the fact they are debt free with hoard of cash. For SAND, I am worried about 2 things, 1) valuation and 2) skyrocketing short interest.
    May 25, 2013. 06:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Next Move With Sandstorm Gold  [View article]
    Thank you. Very nice article. The most interesting part is Buffet's quote "When a management team ..... it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.", which I found truly enlightening. This is right on the mark! For me, investing in SAND, is more about Nolan and his team than gold! I agree with you [and with Nolan for that matter] on the bearish sentiment for gold in the near term. However, longer term, with or without speculators, I see gold continuing to head higher. Thank you again..
    Apr 20, 2013. 05:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Bet On Gold Glittering Again  [View article]
    Dear David, Very good and well balanced article. Insightful analysis of what had occured leading to this bloodbath. The barrage of negative comments [on gold] above is just unbelievable and reflects the current sentiment! and could serve as a contrarian indicator!! I am like you, frustrated by the short term volatility, but continue to hold on to my positions (GLD, SLW, SAND, RGLD, FNV) built several years ago. I am well diversified and hence the overall effect on portfolio is tolerable. Keep up the nice work..
    Apr 17, 2013. 02:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Should Over-Achieve In 2013  [View article]
    Jason, when you do interview Nolan, please post a link or let me know if you have a personal website for us to see the interview. Going back to the all-time-high short position, is this a cause for concern for you? The large bets on further downside is worrisome to me. The other 2 gold streaming companies (FNV & RGLD) have seen uptick in short positions but the % of the increase is no where near the increase on SAND.
    Apr 1, 2013. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Should Over-Achieve In 2013  [View article]
    Thank you for the insightful analysis. I thought that management's guidance for attributable production for 2013 was just too conservative! Your excellent analysis confirms this impression. However, in fairness to management they provided their guidance for 2013 before Luna updated their production guidance. On a separate note, are you alarmed at all by the huge spike recently in short interest to 3.3 million shares (all time high)? Thanks again..
    Apr 1, 2013. 07:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience Is The Key With Sandstorm Gold  [View article]
    You cited 3 justifications for your target price of $6.5. I will not comment on your "Technical Analysis". As far as Entrée Deal, it is true the deal was not well received by the market. But fact of the matter is, the investment accounts for less than 4% of market cap! The third key factor is the "gold price". This is the most important factor. It all comes down to the price of gold.

    To suggest any "target" price, you should have addressed basic valuation parameters. You did not look at multiples, NAV, or analyst targets! Absent such analysis, your article added no value to me.
    Mar 1, 2013. 03:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acacia Research Corporation - Meeting Unmet Needs  [View article]
    Very interesting article. Thank you very much. Buying ACTG anywhere between $20-$25 was indeed a great opportunity! I think that the Street had grown very frustrated with ACTG's overly-cautious disclosure practices. The press releases say very little and never quantify the effect of events (settlement/licensing/... In addition of course to the well-recognized lumpiness of revenue issue. I believe that the scarcity of information and inherent difficulty to analyze ACTG were among the reasons we were able to build positions at these levels! I like the business model a lot. I like the cash hoard. I like the growing patent portfolio. I see tremendous potential for ADAPTIX and ACCESS portfolios. All in all, it is a very exciting opportunity. Thanks again for a very nice article..
    Jan 12, 2013. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment