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A Look At Fed Easing Cycles In the Post-War Period

Thanks for the handy chart. Each episode has its own set of circumstances. Which most resembles the present? Probably 1995 and 1998 (see www.fxstreet.com/funda...).

There is a danger that we could be facing the 1989-92 scenario. Perhaps danger seems like the wrong word, considering the roughly 30% return over three years, but remember, those three years span the 1990 recession, which left the market wallowing in negative territory a year and a half after the rate cuts began.

There does not seem to be much reason to hope for the wild gains of 1974-76 or 1984-86. The former was set up by the market's preceding loss of nearly 50% from 1973-74. The latter represents the secular shift out of hyperinflation, with attendant declines in bond yields. Nothing so momentous is happening now.
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