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Carfan79

Carfan79
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  • Tesla will wait until year's end to pick Gigafactory site [View news story]
    Tesla Motors Official response:

    http://bit.ly/1pDLOuX

    "This is correct. No delay in groundbreaking"
    Jun 3 07:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla will wait until year's end to pick Gigafactory site [View news story]
    Again, Seeking Alpha is misreporting. I understand that there is prices to putting out news so quickly, but I hope SA at least corrects their mistake, which is as follows:

    Musk said, "We’re probably going to do two or maybe three states all the way to creating a foundation and creating the plans and getting approval ... I WOULD expect that we do a down select for Gigafactory one before the end of the year"

    The definition of downselect is: to narrow the field of choices, especially, to choose a supplier from candidates under consideration

    In this case, Musk said the company would down select to one site from 2-3 sites on which he said they will break ground by laying foundation and completing designs.
    Jun 3 06:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Norwegian Deliveries Collapse In April [View instapost]
    Not looking at the full picture. The first month of every quarter is always smaller amounts of cars in Europe in general. Tesla has always underpromised and overdelivered, and there is no reason to stop now, especially since Elon said that Tesla is already sold out for Q2 in response to a question during the earnings call. Highly unlikely that they will miss Q2 guidance of 7500.
    May 13 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    Ok, enough ignoramus posts on here about how Tesla will need to spend $1000 for the Titanium and Aluminum part additions. Let's just do some research and not make baseless claims. There is a PICTURE of the three parts here (Post 14):

    http://bit.ly/1lP1t94


    According to Dan, these additions weigh 16 pounds in total, which is generous given the pictures. Even if all 16 pounds was titanium at $3 per pound, it would cost $48 in parts. Let's just say that the parts are 1/3 of the price, yielding a high estimate of $144. But then we also have to assume that Tesla will have to do this for all the 30,000 vehicles, which would yield $4.3 Million in costs. $4.3 million is absolutely negligible costs for Tesla.
    Apr 8 10:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation [View article]
    Michael Fu,
    Tesla's goal is to sell 700,000 cars in 2019. Let's say they do that in 2020. Also, lets assume that they sell 150,000 Model S/X at an average selling price of $105,000. Also, lets assume they sell 550,000 Model E at $42,500. This would yield $39.125 Billion in revenue, and at 15% net margin, it would be a net profit of $5.8675 Billion. What is a fair P/E ratio for a company that increased its sales by 63% annually for 6 years? Probably around 25 (not 15, which is the average for the currently stagnant auto industry). Which means that Tesla will have a $147 Billion Market cap in 6 years, and at your discount rate of 20% per year, Tesla is worth 38.5 Billion today. This means that a market cap of 27.77 Billion implies that investors are about 70% confident that Tesla will reach that goal in 2020. This is the bull case.
    Apr 3 10:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Sales In Norway Blowing Records Out Of The Water This March [View instapost]
    Looking forward to daily updates on registrations if it's not too much trouble.
    Mar 28 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Sales In Norway Blowing Records Out Of The Water This March [View instapost]
    Is 1500 deliveries around the corner?
    Mar 27 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors roundup: Global sales, utilities disruption, SpaceX [View news story]
    So much for the US peaked demand thesis. If Europe and Asia double last years European deliveries, there will be approximately 9,000 cars delivered, leaving 26,000 for the US (which is much higher than 18,000 last year).
    Mar 5 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Guidance, Analyzing Model S Demand And Customer Deposits [View article]
    Q1 US deliveries (4900 total-158 Canadian)= 4742
    Q2 US deliveries (5150 total-184 Canadian)= 4966
    Q3 US deliveries (5500 total-162 Canadian-1252 European)= 4086
    Q4 US deliveries (6900 total- 134 Canadian-2604 European)=4162

    Using Q2 and Q4 numbers, US deliveries decreased by 16%. In order for the demand to be considered flat, and not peaked, that would mean an increase of 16% in waiting times. With waiting times being estimated with around 10% error, a raise of 16% is virtually unnoticeable. You would have to look up actual delivery times and compile them by quarter to prove your point that demand in the US has peaked. Also, sales to Europe are not expected to be flat (they would have to explicitly say that, which they didn't). Sales to Europe this quarter will probably decrease since they are no longer front loading starting the month of February (this month).
    Feb 20 08:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors beats by $0.12, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Seeking Alpha, you disappoint me. This is bad reporting of data because Non-GAAP EPS is used at the same time as GAAP revenue is used. Either both have to be Non-GAAP (which is more accurate) or both have to be GAAP.

    Tesla Non-GAAP Revenues $761,344,000, not 615M. This is a beat of 104.19M, and not a miss. Badly reported.
    Feb 19 04:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremendous Risk Awaits Tesla Investors In Q4 2013 Earnings Release [View article]
    The bottom line is that the average wait time when I was ordering was in between 1-2 months. Now, the wait time is at least about 2 months and is for the most part between 2 and 3 months.
    Feb 18 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremendous Risk Awaits Tesla Investors In Q4 2013 Earnings Release [View article]
    I didn't explain US demand using production. US demand isn't falling. Although deliveries to US are shrinking, the wait times have increased proportionately, or more than they even had to. The proof is here, it no longer takes 1-2 months to get a Model S. http://bit.ly/1jOTWWW
    Feb 18 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremendous Risk Awaits Tesla Investors In Q4 2013 Earnings Release [View article]
    A cursory look over numeric info may result in the doom and gloom conclusion that demand in the US is peaking, but doing further research and actually understanding outside factors that influence numbers will show you that Tesla's demand is increasing across the board.

    Let me begin by refuting your assumption that Tesla's demand peaked in the US because of deliveries. Back when I got my Model S, I browsed forums to see how long the shipments took. Almost everybody wanted their car as soon as possible because they were essentially still early adopters, so almost everyone opted for the earliest possible delivery, and almost all deliveries were 1-2 months after ordering. Today, it takes 2-3 months to get a similarly configured car and even longer because many people choose to receive their car later. Just look at the estimated delivery times for people who are getting their car in Q1 2014: http://bit.ly/1jOTWWW

    There are less deliveries to the US, but this decrease is matched with an increase in delivery time, so it actually balances out and suggests that Tesla's demand is still on the rise.

    Also, you mention that only 132 Tesla's were delivered to Norway in January 2014, and you imply that there would be much fewer deliveries. However, you ignore a certain pattern. Tesla tends to put cars on the boat the first month of each quarter (to go to Europe), and towards the end of the quarter, they let those cars arrive and focus on US deliveries. This is supported by the following data from Norway:

    September- 616 Tesla Model S deliveries
    October- 98 Tesla Model S deliveries
    November- 527 Tesla Model S deliveries
    December- 553 Tesla Model S deliveries

    The pattern is clear: Tesla delivers less cars to Europe in the first month of each quarter (look at October). This applies to all of Europe, including Netherlands, so it doesn't surprise me that sales dropped to 7 units. In fact, for Norway, the sales are up 35% for the first month of the quarter, will the sales be up 35% in the second and third month of the quarter? If so, Tesla will deliver 1590 cars to Norway in Q1, which is higher than the 1178 in Q1. Also, I think you know that the US number for January is just an estimate from EVObsession, this estimate should not be used to prove a thesis because it is far too rough and has no data to support it whatsoever.

    Looking forward to your response, Happy trading.

    EDIT: I would like to add that Tesla entered Q4 with 550 cars per week, the average was 575 cars per week (6900/12). 650 cars per week seems like a very optimistic number fro exiting Q4. 650 cars per week is 31,200 cars (not 35,000) per year because there are 48 weeks in the work year.
    Feb 18 04:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Revs Up China Engine [View article]
    The 800 number is for the US.
    Jan 27 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: A Great Long-Term Buy With Fair Valuation [View article]
    Sailfish,
    That's because Ford and GM have no real growth potential compared to Tesla, and much lower gross margins. BMW has a P/S ratio of 1.3, and they also have lower gross margin and less growth potential than Tesla. Cash flows, like net and operating margins, are irrelevant to Tesla's valuation because the company invests as much as it can into R&D and SG&A, which is investment in growth. R&D and SG&A will stay the same or grow slightly over the years, but revenue will increase at an extremely high rate. If Tesla invests as much as it can in R&D and SG&A, that means that we don't know the true net profitability and operating profitability.
    Jan 19 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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