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nmecmbtnt

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  • MannKind: What The Afrezza Label Really Says [View article]
    Well done. Thank you for a well written, circumspect & balanced article.

    Post-approval, MNKD seems to remain a good risk/reward play. A small company with a small portfolio of offerings and a set of labeling, partner & market risks.

    These cannot be dismissed.

    That said, if properly positioned & marketed, their flagship product has potential for gargantuan cash flows. With the existential risk of approval dealt with, odds presumably favor Mann & Co. finding the right partners & marketing mavens.

    Wonder how many CMO inquiries/resume's MNKD has received in the past three months?

    Still don't see a red or flashing yellow light.

    Long MNKD.
    Jul 1 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Giant Step Forward For Mankind And MannKind [View article]
    George: Cross paths in Denver, Minneapolis, Dallas or Bellevue & I'll buy you dinner any place you choose. Drop me a line.
    Jul 1 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Giant Step Forward For Mankind And MannKind [View article]
    Thanks again George & company for pointing out this brilliant play.

    Since then, and after having carried out other DD, as all wise investors do, I have made a _fortune_ holding & trading MNKD.

    (Disclosures: back long MNKD, after fleecing some shorts post-AdCom.)
    Jun 30 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Afrezza Approval Opens The Door To Multi-Billion Dollar Markets For MannKind [View article]
    "Current stock price is nowhere near the valuation it should be, if the Technosphere Technology was being applied to the shares."

    This is the best part of the pie. A key, new delivery system was approved for delivery of a non-pulmonary drug. And an essential one at that--in a market that will only get larger with the waistlines of the world.

    It opens the door to the Technosphere 2.0, 3.0, etc developed & licensed extensively.

    If one came up with and defended pills, injectables, transdermal patches, sublinguals, etc as a new delivery system--I'd expect investors to understand the epoch potential. And like XR versions of various drugs have been exploited to extend patent protection--this system will too.

    As is, the shorts are focused on a conflated & narrow interpretation of expected & typical labeling issues. Smoke or got bad lungs--don't use it. Tolerate other forms of insulin badly--don't use it. Allergic reaction--don't use it. Still require long acting insulin--only supplement with it.

    When pain, immunology, hormone, anti-virals, anti-biotics & other fast acting usages emerge as "obvious"--myopic shorts are going to get stripped to the bone.

    I look forward to taking their money when MNKD--not its suitors--"wins" business hand over fist for this profoundly new delivery system.

    Specific example? Transdermal patches. From inception in the late 80's to 2014 the market for transdermal technology + drugs delivered via transdermals grew from nothing to $29.5B and 12% of the global drug delivery market. (Source: http://bit.ly/1nYMDKH)

    You would think that that's enough to wake em up--but it won't.
    Jun 30 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Clock Is Ticking, But Balance Sheet Sounds An Alarm [View article]
    Yes Henny-Penny the sky is falling, the sky is falling....on the shorts. Uh-oh.
    Jun 27 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Clock Is Ticking, But Balance Sheet Sounds An Alarm [View article]
    Not hearing something on CNBC is just ever so telling about the financial network franchises. Them selling ad time to Fisher Investments, Viagra Inc. and GoPro won't make you or I anything.

    Great studio work, big production values, makeup, shills & screamers like Cramer--bad for Joe anybody--good for you & me.

    Soon shocked & sheared they'll put those sheep back to sleep.
    Jun 27 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Clock Is Ticking, But Balance Sheet Sounds An Alarm [View article]
    Approval for MNKD's Afrezza is the equivalent of an under dog like Ghana winning the World Cup.

    MNKD will rocket Monday with a another bone crushing squeeze for the true believers of the fictional short story. Maybe they'll finally get the memo.

    MNKD will be able to name their price for a partnership deal & build a cash freight train by licensing the TechnoSphere delivery technology for other compounds.

    Have a weekend!

    Disclosure: Back long MNKD after AdComm profit grab.
    Jun 27 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    Bow for the quote--see also link to source report: http://bit.ly/1izo8Gk
    Jun 26 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    Using odds of approval for Lemtrada in the U.S. of 65% before the end of the calendar year. Believe that a $2 price, with such approval, is well within reach. Far more risk without an approval, but still within reach over a longer period.

    Also believe the options are currently fairly priced, at $0.50+- with these factors considered.

    Your money, your risk, no substitute for your own due diligence & insight.

    Disclosure: Long GCVRZ.
    Jun 3 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter - Negative Momentum Continues As Engagement Concerns Continue To Materialize [View article]
    Great catch! Rubes on Bloomberg were yakkin on the same bone earlier today.

    "Will TWTR ever become mainstream?" Bloomberg TV wasn't available in HD till about six months ago. (!)

    "What is this VHS, touchtone phone and these magical pagers you speak of?"
    Apr 30 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    Thanks Chris -- for blogs, schoolin & articles on this CVR & other securities.

    Disclosure: Long GCVRZ.
    Apr 30 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter - Negative Momentum Continues As Engagement Concerns Continue To Materialize [View article]
    Here's the money quote from above article: "In other words, there are a low level of contributors but a high level of content CONSUMERS."

    The eBay roadmap model for social networking. The fleab started out as a peer-to-peer exchange for bidding on CD's & autographs--between private parties--exchanging bits of quality stuff for bits of money. Ala TWTR--it was bits of quality information between me and my followers.

    Now eBay is a dump for resale of everything from every dusty warehouse in creation. From shot glasses to garage door openers to gray market trash. They've tried to rehabilitate things to be upscale--but... haven't.

    At the bottom of the online commerce heap are spammers, then craigsheap, then fleabay, then Walmart, then Amazon.

    Social networking plays out same way. Money on that. TWTR is eBay.

    Arguably then Yahoo is the craigsheap (Katie Couric ?!?) of the family & FB the Amazon.

    Still an interesting trade.

    Disclosure: Long TWTR--but not too long.
    Apr 30 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter - Negative Momentum Continues As Engagement Concerns Continue To Materialize [View article]
    What'sApp--deftly handled by FB--is a category killer for Twitter's international growth. That said--TWTR seems to be expanding by growing access to key content feeds. And FB is late to the party on this kind of infospew alternative.

    What sells ads is people looking at Lady Gaga's latest outfit--as pointed out in a tweet from Rosanna Arquette. Not a kid in Vietnam telling his mom he'll be late getting home via WhatsApp.

    TWTR story seems to be growing in the direction of handing celebrities "to be followed" a laser pointer for their rambling to masses of "followers" with a limited attention span.

    It's not going away--yet. (At least not on the outs till you see it gone missing from the lower left corner of places like this [Publish] and [Share] box.)

    Either way--could be a good trade at current prices. We'll see.

    Disclosure: currently long TWTR.
    Apr 30 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    This is surreal--the trials were bigger than the implied number of actual patients as reflected in the net sales. Either they are sandbagging to hold off till sales take off or something else is afoot. Will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it's the prior and not some opaque agenda they have to kill it.

    What's the new/next calculus if Lemtrada gets approval in the U.S. within the 2 month review period? Is there any dated material that gives the actual date that the clock started running on the review?

    Keeping in mind that Sanofi is under a shadow with the class action-I gotta believe that "the cops" are watching their every move on how they manage the value of these options. Namely if the market drives the price to a level that's sufficient--the impetus for the suit goes away.

    Disclosure: Long GCVRZ
    Apr 29 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    Any deeper insight on the report here: http://bit.ly/1ddvwOm

    Looks pretty light.

    Disclosure: Long GCVRZ.
    Apr 29 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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91 Comments
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