No Moss

The Long Case for Taiwan - A.K.A China's Cuba

The island is divided in population between the Chinese who arrived in 1949 (the KMT party) and those who came over from China before the 20th century. The latter group is dominant in the south of Taiwan and speak Taiwanese (also Hakka and Hokkien). The former group is dominant in Taipei, and speaks Mandarin Chinese, although they still use the traditional script. The southern group feels little affinity with China.

What makes the eventual resolution of the Taiwan question inevitable are family and economic ties. Taiwan is already in too deep to get out.

On the other hand, there are political consequences for getting "too close" to China, so it's hard to have effective talks. Right now it has to be a one-way street, with China giving a bone here and there.

China won't invade. They don't have to. All they have to do is threaten to nationalize the Taiwanese investment in China.

BTW, there are many Taiwanese businessmen who have second families in China, so they aren't too interested in moving their first family to China. It's likely that flights will normalize by about June of 2009, assuming there are no more hiccups in relations.