oiltrader

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    • Tue Mar 11th 08:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      $200 Oil - Who's Going to Pay For It?
      welcome back psycho...
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    • Fri Jan 11th 07:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Two Great American Companies
      what does BRC do?? "Over the past year the P/E contracted, as the company steadily grew revenue, profits and shareholder equity"
      - It'll be more helpful if you could specific numbers about the "steadily growing" revenue, profits and shareholder equity than just generally writing a recommendation which sounds like a polished tip.
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    • Thu Dec 6th 11:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Correlation of S&P 500 to Oil Prices
      click to enlarge?? click WHAT to enlarge?
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    • Tue Nov 20th 12:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Best Bets For Investing in India
      A few things to keep in mind before investing in India
      1. The stock market has moved from 3000 in 2003 to 20,000 in 2007.
      2. India imports over 70% of its oil. Unlike China, India hardly has any cheap sources of "equity oil". High oil prices(if the rupee stops appreciating) could fuel runaway inflation.
      3. Real estate prices have gone up 4 fold in 7 years in most Indian cities. I live in Bangalore and a half-decent 1000 square feet flat costs at least 5million rupees(130,000 dollars) in the suburbs. This is a three-fold increase in 5 years.
      4. The IT sector accounts accounts for a third of India's stock market capitalization and trades at 30+ PE multiples. A major portion of the phenomenal growth in the last few years has been driven by outsourcing by the financial sector. This might take a big hit if the multi-billion dollar losses at the banks starts affecting IT budgets for 2008.
      5. Any sharp reversal in the dollar could lead to an even sharper contraction in the Indian market's PE multiple. This has been the behaviour for the last two-three years.
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    • Mon Sep 24th 02:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      Like you said, OPEC probably does use fronts to trade the oil markets. But you forget that the price of oil is controlled by OPEC because OPEC has most of the SPARE CAPACITY of oil. OPEC exports only about a third of the world's oil(and produces even less than that). So the potent weapon in their disposal is curtailing/increasing their oil production, since its the marginal oil production that affects the oil spare capacity. Lets take a hypothetical case where OPEC goes and buys front month IPE(or even Nymex) crude. If the OPEC-traders-Goldman Sachs cartel buying pushes crude oil to high enough levels, other oil producers(remember OPEC accounts for only a third of oil exports) would jump in and sell futures. Like there's nothing stopping Saudi from using fronts to take positions, there's nothing stopping Russia(which anyway has been willing to sell oil at any price for the last five years) from using fronts to sell futures. In short, the futures prices will again stabilize at the "fair" value as deterermined by all market players. And dont forget, these non-opec producers can use spreads to lock in their prices for months down the line too. Plus not all blends trade at the same price - IPE brent has started trading at a discount of over 3$ to WTI after trading at a premium of $3-6 just a few months ago. This shows the effect of the non-financial market players(those who have taken advantage of high prices to sell brent futures to lock in their prices). If you look at the spreads, WTI spreads and gas oil spreads are in deep backwardation(front month outright trading at premium to far month) while brent spreads have been trading around zero. This shows that their is a genuine shortage of crude in the NEAR TERM at cushing(delivery point for nymex WTI). The fact that far months are trading at massive discounts(over a dollar) shows that market players do not expect this shortage to last for much longer(after the OPEC production increase). The backwardation in gas oil could be due to people rushing to secure supplies for the winter. My point is that the oil markets are too diverse(have many contracts - brent,wti,gas oil,gasoline,heating oil and strategies like spreads,options etc) and widespread(any oil producer, refiner,retailer can trade in the market) to be manipulated for any extended period of time(more than a few hours) by anyone since a fairly cohesive cartel of the biggest oil exporters accounts for only a third of the oil exports.
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    • Fri Sep 21st 02:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      Kompu,
      "only people in the oil business know that the cuts are never implemented"???? I'm an oil trader trading crude oil on nymex and ICE from India and I've been getting this info from multiple free sources(check out platts.com for their oil headlines) for the last two years. These pieces of information are available to anyone willing to do a little bit of homework and willing to use a bit of brain to analyse that info. And, Iraq is excluded because of the unreliability of its supplies(Iraq's oil exports are STILL below the levels achieved during the invasion). Angola is a very recent member of OPEC and will be included in the quotas from early next year. I fail to understand how there is manipulation if all the information is publicly available to anyone free of cost ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.
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    • Thu Sep 20th 08:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      Mr Know It All,
      Had you bothered to check historical data(even for the last one year) you would have found that oil prices dont really move according to weekly DOE and API figures. In fact, there have been many weeks in which prices fall on thursday and friday even though the data showed drawdowns. A bigger factor at play here is the dollar depreciation. Anytime the dollar weakens for an extended period of time, crude oil shoots up.

      Please get yourself a bloomberg terminal and do some regression testing before making a mountain of a 4-week old linkage between inventory data and oil prices.

      In the meantime, do us a favor and stop writing.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 20th 08:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      Philip "Middlename=moore... davis,
      Taking your specious logic forward, the NYMEX traders were incorrigible patriots when crude oil was in contango(i.e. near month contracts were priced lower than far month contracts) since they were willing to sell you oil at lower prices in the near term. The phenomenon you have written about is a result of crude oil being in backwardation(look up any advanced spreads article on google Mr. Dont-do-any-homework for the meaning of this). Crude oil has been in contango of over $1 for the better part of the last four years(sometimes by over $2 a barrel). So anyone long on oil and rolling over positions would be losing over $1 A MONTH. Does that make traders with long positions in a contango market patriots and the same traders traitors in a backwardated market????

      I'm pretty sure you didnt understand a word of this. Please take some time off and take some elementary finance and trading courses .
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 19th 03:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      Please remove this financially illiterate reincarnation of michael moore from a reknowned site like seekingalpha. As an oiltrader, I'm apalled at how seekingalpha could print bs like this. The author obviously has no idea of how commodity markets work. The arrogant illiterate is especially unaware that ALL MARKETS have players other than hedgers called speculators who provide the liquidity necessary to lubricate day to day trading and who have no intention of taking delivery at expiry. Davis obviously doesnt know the meaning of the terms open interest,rollover and the fact that open interest in crude oil(and lots of other commodities) has exceeded the physical demand by a factor for years. Is there a way to rate an author/article on seekingalpha?
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    • Wed Sep 19th 03:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      Looks like somebody's lost a lot of money going short on crude oil :))
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