oiltrader's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/107658/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/68016-200-oil-who-s-going-to-pay-for-it?source=feed#comment-124988 124988 Tue, 11 Mar 2008 08:07:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59825-two-great-american-companies?source=feed#comment-109605 109605 - It'll be more helpful if you could specific numbers about the "steadily growing" revenue, profits and shareholder equity than just generally writing a recommendation which sounds like a polished tip.]]> Fri, 11 Jan 2008 07:57:25 -0500 - It'll be more helpful if you could specific numbers about the "steadily growing" revenue, profits and shareholder equity than just generally writing a recommendation which sounds like a polished tip.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/56506-correlation-of-s-p-500-to-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-104309 104309 Thu, 06 Dec 2007 11:09:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/54862-best-bets-for-investing-in-india?source=feed#comment-102517 102517 1. The stock market has moved from 3000 in 2003 to 20,000 in 2007.
2. India imports over 70% of its oil. Unlike China, India hardly has any cheap sources of "equity oil". High oil prices(if the rupee stops appreciating) could fuel runaway inflation.
3. Real estate prices have gone up 4 fold in 7 years in most Indian cities. I live in Bangalore and a half-decent 1000 square feet flat costs at least 5million rupees(130,000 dollars) in the suburbs. This is a three-fold increase in 5 years.
4. The IT sector accounts accounts for a third of India's stock market capitalization and trades at 30+ PE multiples. A major portion of the phenomenal growth in the last few years has been driven by outsourcing by the financial sector. This might take a big hit if the multi-billion dollar losses at the banks starts affecting IT budgets for 2008.
5. Any sharp reversal in the dollar could lead to an even sharper contraction in the Indian market's PE multiple. This has been the behaviour for the last two-three years.]]> Tue, 20 Nov 2007 12:35:19 -0500 1. The stock market has moved from 3000 in 2003 to 20,000 in 2007.
2. India imports over 70% of its oil. Unlike China, India hardly has any cheap sources of "equity oil". High oil prices(if the rupee stops appreciating) could fuel runaway inflation.
3. Real estate prices have gone up 4 fold in 7 years in most Indian cities. I live in Bangalore and a half-decent 1000 square feet flat costs at least 5million rupees(130,000 dollars) in the suburbs. This is a three-fold increase in 5 years.
4. The IT sector accounts accounts for a third of India's stock market capitalization and trades at 30+ PE multiples. A major portion of the phenomenal growth in the last few years has been driven by outsourcing by the financial sector. This might take a big hit if the multi-billion dollar losses at the banks starts affecting IT budgets for 2008.
5. Any sharp reversal in the dollar could lead to an even sharper contraction in the Indian market's PE multiple. This has been the behaviour for the last two-three years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47541-the-oil-scam-driving-crude-over-80?source=feed#comment-96686 96686 Mon, 24 Sep 2007 02:59:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/47541-the-oil-scam-driving-crude-over-80?source=feed#comment-96525 96525 "only people in the oil business know that the cuts are never implemented"???? I'm an oil trader trading crude oil on nymex and ICE from India and I've been getting this info from multiple free sources(check out platts.com for their oil headlines) for the last two years. These pieces of information are available to anyone willing to do a little bit of homework and willing to use a bit of brain to analyse that info. And, Iraq is excluded because of the unreliability of its supplies(Iraq's oil exports are STILL below the levels achieved during the invasion). Angola is a very recent member of OPEC and will be included in the quotas from early next year. I fail to understand how there is manipulation if all the information is publicly available to anyone free of cost ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.]]> Fri, 21 Sep 2007 02:48:35 -0400 "only people in the oil business know that the cuts are never implemented"???? I'm an oil trader trading crude oil on nymex and ICE from India and I've been getting this info from multiple free sources(check out platts.com for their oil headlines) for the last two years. These pieces of information are available to anyone willing to do a little bit of homework and willing to use a bit of brain to analyse that info. And, Iraq is excluded because of the unreliability of its supplies(Iraq's oil exports are STILL below the levels achieved during the invasion). Angola is a very recent member of OPEC and will be included in the quotas from early next year. I fail to understand how there is manipulation if all the information is publicly available to anyone free of cost ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47541-the-oil-scam-driving-crude-over-80?source=feed#comment-96446 96446 Had you bothered to check historical data(even for the last one year) you would have found that oil prices dont really move according to weekly DOE and API figures. In fact, there have been many weeks in which prices fall on thursday and friday even though the data showed drawdowns. A bigger factor at play here is the dollar depreciation. Anytime the dollar weakens for an extended period of time, crude oil shoots up.

Please get yourself a bloomberg terminal and do some regression testing before making a mountain of a 4-week old linkage between inventory data and oil prices.

In the meantime, do us a favor and stop writing.]]> Thu, 20 Sep 2007 08:26:43 -0400 Had you bothered to check historical data(even for the last one year) you would have found that oil prices dont really move according to weekly DOE and API figures. In fact, there have been many weeks in which prices fall on thursday and friday even though the data showed drawdowns. A bigger factor at play here is the dollar depreciation. Anytime the dollar weakens for an extended period of time, crude oil shoots up.

Please get yourself a bloomberg terminal and do some regression testing before making a mountain of a 4-week old linkage between inventory data and oil prices.

In the meantime, do us a favor and stop writing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47541-the-oil-scam-driving-crude-over-80?source=feed#comment-96445 96445 Taking your specious logic forward, the NYMEX traders were incorrigible patriots when crude oil was in contango(i.e. near month contracts were priced lower than far month contracts) since they were willing to sell you oil at lower prices in the near term. The phenomenon you have written about is a result of crude oil being in backwardation(look up any advanced spreads article on google Mr. Dont-do-any-homework for the meaning of this). Crude oil has been in contango of over $1 for the better part of the last four years(sometimes by over $2 a barrel). So anyone long on oil and rolling over positions would be losing over $1 A MONTH. Does that make traders with long positions in a contango market patriots and the same traders traitors in a backwardated market????

I'm pretty sure you didnt understand a word of this. Please take some time off and take some elementary finance and trading courses .]]> Thu, 20 Sep 2007 08:07:59 -0400 Taking your specious logic forward, the NYMEX traders were incorrigible patriots when crude oil was in contango(i.e. near month contracts were priced lower than far month contracts) since they were willing to sell you oil at lower prices in the near term. The phenomenon you have written about is a result of crude oil being in backwardation(look up any advanced spreads article on google Mr. Dont-do-any-homework for the meaning of this). Crude oil has been in contango of over $1 for the better part of the last four years(sometimes by over $2 a barrel). So anyone long on oil and rolling over positions would be losing over $1 A MONTH. Does that make traders with long positions in a contango market patriots and the same traders traitors in a backwardated market????

I'm pretty sure you didnt understand a word of this. Please take some time off and take some elementary finance and trading courses .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47541-the-oil-scam-driving-crude-over-80?source=feed#comment-96327 96327 Wed, 19 Sep 2007 03:29:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/47541-the-oil-scam-driving-crude-over-80?source=feed#comment-96326 96326 Wed, 19 Sep 2007 03:22:21 -0400