Seeking Alpha
  • OneLongTrade
    TLT huge, huge reversal today. SPX overstretched, full candle outside BB band, I'm expecting sharp reversal next week.
    9/7/12
    Reply (14)
    • OneLongTrade: My reasoning is that the economic data, the Fed, the ECB has given us no reasons to worry, that everything is "good." Even in bull markets,
      9/7/12
    • OneLongTrade: things are not all good. The fact that no news is bad news is a very scary sign indeed. Complacency at its apex.
      9/7/12
    • TruffelPig: Complacency?? With them talking Europe every single day still?? You are kidding. The market is breaking out and you talk reversal?
      9/7/12
    • Hypnos7: Is that a reversal in TLT, or dead cat bounce into the gap?
      9/7/12
    • Hypnos7: Don't question strength -- the herd is stampeding.
      9/7/12
    • OneLongTrade: What about Europe? Old news my friend. Clearly Draghi said that we will buy every single sovereign bond in existence. So why is Europe bad?
      9/7/12
    • Hypnos7: Reduce position size to manage risk if you are proven right.
      9/7/12
    • TruffelPig: Exactly. Don't hedge right now I would say.
      9/7/12
    • Hypnos7: European bonds have a put under them -- this is bearish for US bonds.
      9/7/12
    • OneLongTrade: I am out of the market, waiting to seize the eventual pullback. RSI divergence finally happened, first time since April. So let's see.
      9/7/12
    • OneLongTrade: European bonds have a put, so there's no way those yields can go up again, right? What happens if the ESFS/EUROZONE rating is cut?
      9/7/12
    • OneLongTrade: Bearish on TLT long term, but technically we should see a reversal to new highs, we haven't had that panic peak just yet.
      9/7/12
    • OneLongTrade: Anyways this is just my musings, the signs I'm seeing. Maybe Monday morning Benny says the magic letters QE3 and my hypothesis goes to hell.
      9/7/12
    • realornot: your coat looks slightly better today
      9/7/12
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