Channon

U.S. Dollar Now Testing $1.50 Per Euro

You forgot "Scenario 4": Raise taxes on the highest income earners. It would help balance the budget without causing any meaningful reduction in consumer spending. The marginal propensity to consume among this group of individuals is extremely low. In the aggregate, it would likely be a wash when you factor in the positive wealth effect from the rising stock market and housing markets.

You forgot this because (having read your older posts), you are opposed to progressive taxation, right?

But, to your third scenario, the "collapse" of the dollar -- the US is NOT Brazil. We can still be a self-sufficient nation. We produce more food than we can consume, and we can still produce cars. We really only need oil. This prospect, of the US becoming self-sufficient, should scare the crap out of most nations on earth, as their economies rely on the US buying from them. They need the dollar to retain some value, as much as the consumer shopping for 52" TVs.

Options Trader: Flash Ban Friday?

I enjoy your articles, but this one is WAY too heavy with the party analogy. People here know what this is "like"; I'd suggest keeping the analogies to far less than the substance in an article.

100% Gainers and Their Estimated P/Es

P/E?? That's so "yesterday". Our economy is in a new paradigm. This time, it's different...

Mac Pricing: Value Is in the Eye of the Buyer

Hedged In:
Have you ever used the aluminum laptops? They are far superior to plastic. The case and size is the only reason I'm using a 4-year-old laptop. That is, the lack of availability of a metal-case small-format laptop until recently. And, likely the only reason my laptop has survived for 4 years. I think you are in very small company if you prefer a plastic case to AAPL's new unibody aluminum case. Premium pricing, surely an arguable position (until you go try to build a comparable Dell), but plastic over metal???

Mac Pricing: Value Is in the Eye of the Buyer

Only one data point, but the hardware upgrades (specifically firewire and battery) on the 13" are enough to put me in the "buyers" column.

Am I still paying a premium? What is my time worth? At the office, I'm still running XP because of Vista, and that's very dated technology that costs quite a bit of productivity. Updates, virus scans, firewall maintenance all eat up precious time.

Right now I'm typing this post on my 12" PowerBook G4 that is 4 years old this month. 4 years is about twice the life of a typical PC laptop, WITHOUT having to live through the upgrade hassle. I'll gladly pay $1500 again (incidentally, that's what I paid 4 years ago for my 1.5Ghz G4, plus $100 to get to 1.25Ghz RAM) for another painless 4 years of computing; this time on a 2.5Ghz Core 2 Duo & 4 Ghz RAM onto which I'll install my copy of XP and ditch the office PC thanks to Outlook support... My only regret is that AAPL doesn't make something smaller than the 13".

Apple and RIM: The Spoils Go to the Smartest

Economyst: AAPL defers iPhone revenue over 8 quarters. An iPhone sold in Oct 2008 was only 1/8th recognized in Q4 08. July 08, only 1/4th recognized, etc.

The bloggers have been pointing this out for years. Morgan Stanley just noticed, and quite hilariously, after having told their clients to sell at $80, just decided to tell them to buy at $135. Having missed $55 in gains, they think there is another $45 in upside. Perhaps that means it's time to sell...

Is Microsoft About to Multi-Touch a Nerve with Apple?

Jimbot, you can delete "shipping", and your comment has merit. For MSFT, the issue is the thing actually working!

JPMorgan (JPM) slashes dividend to $0.05 from $0.38. "Our action today is being done as a strong precautionary measure to help ensure that our fortress balance sheet remains intact - even if conditions worsen significantly." Says Q1 so far is in-line. Shares -1.8% AH. (PR)

cabanker -- talk to Ken Lewis about how that has worked out!

Apple: Bulls More Bullish, Bears More Bearish

Mathematically, you could justify $86 if you think there will be nothing but bad news. But, $70?? Abramsky is not thinking. What's his timeframe?

At recent rates, AND assuming NO more growth, in about 2 years Apple will be sitting on $70 in cash. I have a 2 year horizon...

Snapshot: Apple's Cash Growth

Optionsgirl -- $50/share?? Hardly; they had $32/share CASH on the books on 12/31, and have been printing dollar bills non-stop for the 8 weeks since. Surely you think the enterprise is worth more than $18?

I hope you're right; I'll sell everything and go all AAPL!

Kraft Foods: Time to Put This Cash Cow Out to Pasture?

With the stock off 15% since you published this piece, is it any more attractive? Surely the debt concern is there, but at some point, the stock would be attractive enough to offset that concern, right?

Beware the 'Wal-Mart Effect'

Without commenting on your conclusions, I do believe you have a logical flaw:

"To continue at this pace, AIPC would need to rapidly expand its operations…meaning higher fixed costs and a higher threshold for probability."

Without knowledge of where the company is running relative to capacity, this is not a logical conclusion. Are they running their "high fixed cost" equipment at capacity? On how many production shifts? Can they add a weekend shift? A second weekday shift? How about an overnight shift? If they are currently only running this equipment 40 hours per week, there is a phenomenal amount of capacity left before they will be faced with higher fixed costs or a higher threshold for profitability.

Your argument is that AIPC is not favorably scalable; unfortunately, that information is not contained in the company snapshot at Yahoo Finance.

Recession Takes a Bite Out of Mac Sales

"But if our survey numbers are correct, then why did the Street react so favorably to Apple’s latest earnings announcement?"

Perhaps it is the convergence of cash on the balance sheet and market cap?

Ominous Drop in Sales Bodes Ill for More than Just Apple - Barron's

Apple had better cut back staffing levels, inventory and business hours at their retail stores, just like the other retailers. If they maintain adequate amounts of product people want, sensible staffing levels and convenient hours, they won't successfully reduce their sales.

I was in Restoration Hardware last Saturday. Over a dozen frustrated customers were lined up to pay with only TWO employees. After a ridiculous 15-minute wait, I was told the product I wanted was out of stock. ATTENTION AAPL MANAGEMENT: This is how you run a recession! Piss off, and then turn away paying customers.

If Apple Does Correct, It Will Do So Soon

On Jan 28 01:30 PM Derrick Lilly wrote:
>
> Plus, with $25 per share in cash ...


$31.50/share as of 12/31/08, and adding about $3/quarter. As of today, figure about $32.50/share in cash (30% more than your figure.) Yes, it's accumulating FAST, despite Wall St's lack of attention to this detail.