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A long term investor with over 40 years of experience, a highly educated: Ph. D. EE professional
  • MU Price Is Pump And Dump Again Today And Lately

    It is also reported that MU CEO Mark Durcan will be presenting at Sanford Bernstein conference today 5/28/2014. Therefore those analysts would predict Durcan will reveal something about MU's revenue or profit prospective. But that is pure speculation: companies never reveal any financial statement in these kinds of conference. We already knew that the DRAM chip price has gone down from the first quarter and also has since firmed up somewhat; but NAND price had gone down and has yet to firm up so far. Thus, it is expected that MU 2Q14 revenue is down from 1Q14, so will be the profit ( as it is shown in, MU analysts estimation). Thus, there is no impetus for the MU stock to continue to rise; especially 3Q14 prediction is about the same as that in 2Q14. Only those analysts insist that they knew something others don't, and continue to raise the MU price target ( as well as SNDK's price target). Granted that the NAND demand has increased substantially ( about 40%/year in the next year or two) due to new applications such as storage and cloud, but there are so many players and suppliers, the unit price is not seen to be up substantially, as evident in the market place. The exorbitant stock target price such as SNDK suggested by the analysts are bound to crash down sooner or later.

    Disclosure: I am long MU.

    May 28 11:07 AM | Link | Comment!
  • HP Planned Layoff Is Hardly A Bad Omen For HP

    But the news is not all bad as it seems, especially for HP for the following reasons: As Meg Whitman explained, the turnaround effort is on track at HP, it is just a process to eliminate inefficiency. Viz. that: HP just signed a contract with Foxconn to make low level servers for HP, that alone will at least eliminate 5K manufacturing jobs at HP ( that is to shift the HP employees from HP to Foxconn), plus the sale force, management associated with this manufacturing, that could be as high as 7K work force. HP recently enhance it channel sale force in the world, it shifted most of their effort to their channel partners, that will eliminate 10K job at HP; all they need now is just to manage the channel partner inventory requirements, that requires far fewer HP employees. These channel partner forces are very large; some of them are more than 50 persons each. There are hundreds in North America; multiply that in Europe, Latin America, Far East and Africa, you can see this is indeed a large number. HP still has 300+K work force, that is far more than Apple ( about 30 -50K employees), yet the revenue is less than Apple's. I am glad that HP is holding onto the manufacturing business, still making large portion of its revenue in hardware; comparing with IBM ( at IBM, everybody wants to wear blue suites, making "big bucks", unwilling to get their hands dirty), it is far better in the fundamental sense. IBM has lost its mojo in hardware design or manufacturing, it is far less competitive in business fundamentally. Although most of the HP's manufacturing facilities are partners outside of US, but there are still many HP engineers participating in the design, doing the IR&D and making the product that will keep the knowledge in HP. It is in far better shape than Apple ( Apple is just assembling someone else products in the factory other than its own) or IBM for that matter. If you understand this, you will not question Meg Whitman's argument HP is on the mend. On the other hand, the job lost from HP is not good news for HP employees or the US middle class, it shifts the jobs to Foxconn or to China. That is the result of high US cost and inflated wages compared with employees in the developing countries. In summary: layoff is not bad news for HP, or a bad omen for the future, it is a necessary survival measure for HP presently, one should applaud its effort (or to buy the stock?!).

    Disclosure: I am long HPQ.

    May 23 6:42 AM | Link | Comment!
  • HP Is Going To Report Inline Revenue And Earnings In 2Q14

    There was a report by WSJ to say that Analysts in Citi to predict HP to report lower than projected 27.4B revenue in 1Q14 due to results reported by NetApp. I believe this is not the case, if there is anything else, HP will report revenue more than 27.4B ( more like 28.1B) due to the following reasons: HP's personal computer division and Enterprise Division both have higher revenue vs. a year ago as reported ( or just a projection) by IDC. With their new business in Cloud, Phablet ( Phone and Tablet combine) and enterprise security software, all of them are adding to the new revenue. NetApp is majored in the storage business, their traditional HDD storage is not the same as those supplied by HP (hardware also include eMMC SDD plus software securities ). Yesterday (20/2014), Lenovo reported record profits for the quarter; you can infer that PC, Tablet plus cell phone business are not in a decline, even for HP.

    Disclosure: I am long HPQ.

    May 21 11:19 AM | Link | Comment!
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