geodan85's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/1078204/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1439421/comments?source=feed#comment-18892441 18892441 Thu, 16 May 2013 09:20:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1439481/comments?source=feed#comment-18889421 18889421
If you believe central bank printing of money eventually leads to inflation, all the miners are too cheap. HL is definitely a value at these levels and can double fairly quickly if sentiment in the sector turns.]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 08:20:06 -0400
If you believe central bank printing of money eventually leads to inflation, all the miners are too cheap. HL is definitely a value at these levels and can double fairly quickly if sentiment in the sector turns.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1428841/comments?source=feed#comment-18779051 18779051 Mon, 13 May 2013 16:03:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1418051/comments?source=feed#comment-18617251 18617251
Audi is owned by Volkswagen the giant with multiple brands and is more similar to Nokia then Blackberry the small player with, as described above, with less diversification. I remember when it took VW a while to turnaround Audi's perception in the market (remember the so called acceleration problems many years ago) and now Audi is considered one of the premier luxury brands in automobiles and selling very well. Kia as far as I know has no premier status in the upper end car market and likely will not be there in many years (if ever).

Finally, the author of that article is likely unhappy with NOK price action starting to trend higher again and is trying (in vain) to halt next up move in NOK shares.]]> Thu, 09 May 2013 08:48:16 -0400
Audi is owned by Volkswagen the giant with multiple brands and is more similar to Nokia then Blackberry the small player with, as described above, with less diversification. I remember when it took VW a while to turnaround Audi's perception in the market (remember the so called acceleration problems many years ago) and now Audi is considered one of the premier luxury brands in automobiles and selling very well. Kia as far as I know has no premier status in the upper end car market and likely will not be there in many years (if ever).

Finally, the author of that article is likely unhappy with NOK price action starting to trend higher again and is trying (in vain) to halt next up move in NOK shares.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1005231?source=feed#comment-18548261 18548261
I also agree with a previous post about the right to sue being very different from the ability to really have a chance of winning and a case that will be heard.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 15:05:32 -0400
I also agree with a previous post about the right to sue being very different from the ability to really have a chance of winning and a case that will be heard.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1388151/comments?source=feed#comment-18312311 18312311
I will point out that I would have not seen the ad yet, but it was shown to me by my teenage son on YouTube. This is also an excellent development for Lumia phones since it indicates the younger market is being made aware of this phone and could help win converts in that demographic segment.]]> Wed, 01 May 2013 10:29:25 -0400
I will point out that I would have not seen the ad yet, but it was shown to me by my teenage son on YouTube. This is also an excellent development for Lumia phones since it indicates the younger market is being made aware of this phone and could help win converts in that demographic segment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/972641?source=feed#comment-18122871 18122871 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 08:22:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1364671/comments?source=feed#comment-18031821 18031821
I still question why management didn't issue additional equity in conjunction with the Macarthur coal acquisition (or even before when they were obviously contemplating growth strategies and the stock was riding high), but they seem focused on working down the debt and hopefully don't do an issue at these levels. This potential/belief of an equity issue may also be holding the shares down as well.]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 11:09:27 -0400
I still question why management didn't issue additional equity in conjunction with the Macarthur coal acquisition (or even before when they were obviously contemplating growth strategies and the stock was riding high), but they seem focused on working down the debt and hopefully don't do an issue at these levels. This potential/belief of an equity issue may also be holding the shares down as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1364921/comments?source=feed#comment-18029271 18029271
Also, litigation/settlements is a variable that can lay waste to any forecast, conservative or aggressive. Unfortunately, litigation costs/settlements are still an unknown issue for BAC and will likely hold the stock back.

Finally, I believe one reason BAC is performing better this week is simply that they are now executing the stock buyback, which is governed by 10b-18 rules that stipulates blackout periods around earning announcements as well as other significant transactions such as mergers, acquisitions/divestitu... Other restrictions apply such as tick rules (need to buy on minus or zero plus ticks) and percentage of volume restrictions (no more than 25%).]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 10:16:12 -0400
Also, litigation/settlements is a variable that can lay waste to any forecast, conservative or aggressive. Unfortunately, litigation costs/settlements are still an unknown issue for BAC and will likely hold the stock back.

Finally, I believe one reason BAC is performing better this week is simply that they are now executing the stock buyback, which is governed by 10b-18 rules that stipulates blackout periods around earning announcements as well as other significant transactions such as mergers, acquisitions/divestitu... Other restrictions apply such as tick rules (need to buy on minus or zero plus ticks) and percentage of volume restrictions (no more than 25%).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1359241/comments?source=feed#comment-17954941 17954941
I agree with you, until the litigation piling on ends against the banks, the economy essentially goes no where since credit will be restricted. BofA should have obtained better terms from the government, if as exbofa states, a not so subtle threat was made. The real toxic stuff could have been put to a Maiden Lane type deal with the Fed as was done with AIG.

The question that remains is if the litigation against the Countrywide toxic assets goes massively against BAC, can the Countrywide holding still be put into bankruptcy thereby protecting the rest of BAC. This question has never been properly answered and is open to legal questions/attacks and would bring even more litigation since there would be no value to seek restitution if Countrywide was put into bankruptcy at the subsidiary level with no legal claim on the rest of BAC. The legal issue is over the conveyance and value of asset transfers between the different entities. I am not even sure BAC's senior management knows how this would play out (likely why it hasn't occurred) if they attempted it since it would almost certainly be challenged in court.

Regarding the other so called forced acquisition, Merrill has been integrated and banded on the BAC platform, so any spin off of Merrill to raise capital would be difficult (if needed), although not impossible. Merrill is back to being a very profitable machine and I doubt BAC wants to part with it and are glad that one of the two financial crisis acquisitions is paying off. However, the Countrywide losses dwarf any of the Merrill contributions and Countrywide still creates the uncertainty in forecasting anything regarding BAC's earning power moving forward and will continue to act as a brake on any meaningful share appreciation.]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 19:10:54 -0400
I agree with you, until the litigation piling on ends against the banks, the economy essentially goes no where since credit will be restricted. BofA should have obtained better terms from the government, if as exbofa states, a not so subtle threat was made. The real toxic stuff could have been put to a Maiden Lane type deal with the Fed as was done with AIG.

The question that remains is if the litigation against the Countrywide toxic assets goes massively against BAC, can the Countrywide holding still be put into bankruptcy thereby protecting the rest of BAC. This question has never been properly answered and is open to legal questions/attacks and would bring even more litigation since there would be no value to seek restitution if Countrywide was put into bankruptcy at the subsidiary level with no legal claim on the rest of BAC. The legal issue is over the conveyance and value of asset transfers between the different entities. I am not even sure BAC's senior management knows how this would play out (likely why it hasn't occurred) if they attempted it since it would almost certainly be challenged in court.

Regarding the other so called forced acquisition, Merrill has been integrated and banded on the BAC platform, so any spin off of Merrill to raise capital would be difficult (if needed), although not impossible. Merrill is back to being a very profitable machine and I doubt BAC wants to part with it and are glad that one of the two financial crisis acquisitions is paying off. However, the Countrywide losses dwarf any of the Merrill contributions and Countrywide still creates the uncertainty in forecasting anything regarding BAC's earning power moving forward and will continue to act as a brake on any meaningful share appreciation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1358421/comments?source=feed#comment-17937121 17937121
Most traders/investors in BAC would welcome the "teens" rather then the pre-teen years we are currently in for almost two years.

The issue for BAC is as Tim Travis mentions above, litigation and legacy assets, favorable resolution and the stock becomes a teenager ready to graduate high school.]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 12:48:37 -0400
Most traders/investors in BAC would welcome the "teens" rather then the pre-teen years we are currently in for almost two years.

The issue for BAC is as Tim Travis mentions above, litigation and legacy assets, favorable resolution and the stock becomes a teenager ready to graduate high school.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1357981/comments?source=feed#comment-17929431 17929431
Interesting read on the preferred treatment for funding the pension gap, sounds like government accounting, so maybe DOL will approve it since they can relate to these type of transactions.]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 09:54:32 -0400
Interesting read on the preferred treatment for funding the pension gap, sounds like government accounting, so maybe DOL will approve it since they can relate to these type of transactions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/954491?source=feed#comment-17849271 17849271
Second, Commodities are more interesting since real demand/supply issues are drivers. However, the Chinese play a major role in demand and it would be no surprise overblown fears over a severe slowing in their economy may be somewhat by design (does anyone real believe Chinese official data?) to enable opportune purchases at lower prices. On the supply side, producers are cutting production due to lower prices and slower demand (read Europe as a primary driver of slowing demand). However, these actions will stabilize prices and eventually allow for future rises since money is being printed globally faster than any commodity production can or will be ramped up when increased demand returns.

Third, Stocks (Junk bonds as well since they tend to trade more with stock market sentiment) have and likely will continue to benefit from all the liquidity being produced by central banks. Profitability has been good due to lower financing costs and cost controls (read layoffs for most industries) which has allowed the market to trade higher on valuation which has been inline with historical averages. The key will be top line growth going forward since most of the cost side gains have been realized. If topline growth disappoints, the slide can continue, but likely will be limited since when you run to cash and realize it still yields next to nothing it is hard to justify staying there too long, especially if you are being paid to manage money (institutions will likely be buyers on further downdrafts).

Finally, the real test will come when QEs stop globally, although they likely won't stop until Europe is able to pull their weight. My guess is when QEs are wound down the inflation begins since the money that has been put into the banking system will really start to be released and then it makes sense to be long some commodities, stocks and short bonds.]]> Fri, 19 Apr 2013 16:49:04 -0400
Second, Commodities are more interesting since real demand/supply issues are drivers. However, the Chinese play a major role in demand and it would be no surprise overblown fears over a severe slowing in their economy may be somewhat by design (does anyone real believe Chinese official data?) to enable opportune purchases at lower prices. On the supply side, producers are cutting production due to lower prices and slower demand (read Europe as a primary driver of slowing demand). However, these actions will stabilize prices and eventually allow for future rises since money is being printed globally faster than any commodity production can or will be ramped up when increased demand returns.

Third, Stocks (Junk bonds as well since they tend to trade more with stock market sentiment) have and likely will continue to benefit from all the liquidity being produced by central banks. Profitability has been good due to lower financing costs and cost controls (read layoffs for most industries) which has allowed the market to trade higher on valuation which has been inline with historical averages. The key will be top line growth going forward since most of the cost side gains have been realized. If topline growth disappoints, the slide can continue, but likely will be limited since when you run to cash and realize it still yields next to nothing it is hard to justify staying there too long, especially if you are being paid to manage money (institutions will likely be buyers on further downdrafts).

Finally, the real test will come when QEs stop globally, although they likely won't stop until Europe is able to pull their weight. My guess is when QEs are wound down the inflation begins since the money that has been put into the banking system will really start to be released and then it makes sense to be long some commodities, stocks and short bonds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1353061/comments?source=feed#comment-17811491 17811491
BTU is a great long term buy and in my opinion will double (and likely higher) over the next few years. The current U.S. leadership will not be around forever (thankfully) and their incompetence on energy policy will fade. Also, has anyone noticed that Germany is burning more coal as well as they attempt to move away from nuclear.

Patience is required with BTU, but ultimately I see these shares much higher when the realization that a cheap abundant stable supply for the power industry isn't going away anytime soon.]]> Thu, 18 Apr 2013 19:04:58 -0400
BTU is a great long term buy and in my opinion will double (and likely higher) over the next few years. The current U.S. leadership will not be around forever (thankfully) and their incompetence on energy policy will fade. Also, has anyone noticed that Germany is burning more coal as well as they attempt to move away from nuclear.

Patience is required with BTU, but ultimately I see these shares much higher when the realization that a cheap abundant stable supply for the power industry isn't going away anytime soon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1347291/comments?source=feed#comment-17748001 17748001 Wed, 17 Apr 2013 14:46:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1347291/comments?source=feed#comment-17740981 17740981
Also, I don't believe BAC can be buying their stock back today under 10b-18 rules which restricts buybacks to volume restrictions, minus or zero plus ticks and blackout periods around earnings announcements. Therefore, longer term investors don't benefit from the company buying at deeper discounts to book on a weak trading day as today (of course further weakness during non blackouts periods, in theory could further benefit value if it occurs and they are buying back stock).]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 12:38:39 -0400
Also, I don't believe BAC can be buying their stock back today under 10b-18 rules which restricts buybacks to volume restrictions, minus or zero plus ticks and blackout periods around earnings announcements. Therefore, longer term investors don't benefit from the company buying at deeper discounts to book on a weak trading day as today (of course further weakness during non blackouts periods, in theory could further benefit value if it occurs and they are buying back stock).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1337921/comments?source=feed#comment-17553741 17553741
Good work by Jacob Steinberg in noticing the fact they are now more specific regarding a timeline.]]> Fri, 12 Apr 2013 14:46:04 -0400
Good work by Jacob Steinberg in noticing the fact they are now more specific regarding a timeline.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/934191?source=feed#comment-17488361 17488361 Thu, 11 Apr 2013 09:16:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1333571/comments?source=feed#comment-17486661 17486661
One other point, I don't agree with the author's comments about large losses stacking up from Merrill Lynch (Countrywide definitely is a major drag on the bank). Merrill Lynch is a cash generating machine (John Thain cleaned up a lot of O'Neal's mess prior to the BAC acquisition) and the BAC purchase (with all stock) was a good one, although some further mortgage CDOs needed to be written off immediately after closing the deal. This was discovered after the fact when BAC tried to back out of the deal and was pretty much told not to by U.S. Treasury and the Fed (BAC and all major money center banks are in essence operating subsidiaries of the Fed and likely to remain so). However, since then Merrill contributed significantly to the holding companies earnings in the subsequent years after the acquisition and continues to be a positive contributor to cash flow and earnings (likely why Tom Montag is compensated higher then Brian Moynihan).

]]> Thu, 11 Apr 2013 08:45:19 -0400
One other point, I don't agree with the author's comments about large losses stacking up from Merrill Lynch (Countrywide definitely is a major drag on the bank). Merrill Lynch is a cash generating machine (John Thain cleaned up a lot of O'Neal's mess prior to the BAC acquisition) and the BAC purchase (with all stock) was a good one, although some further mortgage CDOs needed to be written off immediately after closing the deal. This was discovered after the fact when BAC tried to back out of the deal and was pretty much told not to by U.S. Treasury and the Fed (BAC and all major money center banks are in essence operating subsidiaries of the Fed and likely to remain so). However, since then Merrill contributed significantly to the holding companies earnings in the subsequent years after the acquisition and continues to be a positive contributor to cash flow and earnings (likely why Tom Montag is compensated higher then Brian Moynihan).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/934191?source=feed#comment-17463011 17463011 Wed, 10 Apr 2013 15:48:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/934191?source=feed#comment-17419601 17419601
Case in point, I have three sons (triplets) in high school. Last year we upgraded to smartphones, one got the I phone, one the galaxy and one the Nokia 920. My son with the Nokia 920 recently told me a game app (can't remember the name of the game) became available on his WP8 920 Nokia phone and he was very happy.

The problem for WP8 phones is still the lack of apps/games for this younger target market. He tells me hardly anyone has Nokia WP8 phones in school (or any other manufacturers of WP8) with I phones and android phones dominating. Until popular apps/games become more available it seems marketing and increasing operating system awareness will be similar to pushing on a string for certain segments of the market.]]> Tue, 09 Apr 2013 17:09:30 -0400
Case in point, I have three sons (triplets) in high school. Last year we upgraded to smartphones, one got the I phone, one the galaxy and one the Nokia 920. My son with the Nokia 920 recently told me a game app (can't remember the name of the game) became available on his WP8 920 Nokia phone and he was very happy.

The problem for WP8 phones is still the lack of apps/games for this younger target market. He tells me hardly anyone has Nokia WP8 phones in school (or any other manufacturers of WP8) with I phones and android phones dominating. Until popular apps/games become more available it seems marketing and increasing operating system awareness will be similar to pushing on a string for certain segments of the market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/924871?source=feed#comment-17205731 17205731 Thu, 04 Apr 2013 08:50:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298801/comments?source=feed#comment-17088311 17088311 Mon, 01 Apr 2013 17:20:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298801/comments?source=feed#comment-16787721 16787721
The only metric that really matters for NAT is the suezmax spot rate and that still is low. Stronger global growth is needed for the rate to be sustained north of $20,000 per day (what the author is looking for as mentioned) and given the U.S., Europe and China it seems we still are not there.

The recent rally looks like a short covering rally. The average volume of the last seven days and including today (~1.4mil as I write) is ~1.3 million shares, which means if it is a short squeeze going into month/quarter end it will likely end soon. If the stock continues to rally next week, then something else is going on.

I believe NAT is too low, although I also remember when the stock acted well (similar to the recent move) and was rallying back from the low teens to the mid teens with the potential to move back toward $19 - $20. However, management stopped the rally cold with a secondary (I think it was ~$15.50) which was disappointing since I though they should have waited for higher prices to do the deal.

Finally, with the recent management company buy out and now larger stock position held by Hansen and family (in at $8.90 on deal price) maybe they won't be so quick to pull the trigger on another secondary, but somehow I don't feel confident that it won't happen if the rally continues.]]> Mon, 25 Mar 2013 15:58:01 -0400
The only metric that really matters for NAT is the suezmax spot rate and that still is low. Stronger global growth is needed for the rate to be sustained north of $20,000 per day (what the author is looking for as mentioned) and given the U.S., Europe and China it seems we still are not there.

The recent rally looks like a short covering rally. The average volume of the last seven days and including today (~1.4mil as I write) is ~1.3 million shares, which means if it is a short squeeze going into month/quarter end it will likely end soon. If the stock continues to rally next week, then something else is going on.

I believe NAT is too low, although I also remember when the stock acted well (similar to the recent move) and was rallying back from the low teens to the mid teens with the potential to move back toward $19 - $20. However, management stopped the rally cold with a secondary (I think it was ~$15.50) which was disappointing since I though they should have waited for higher prices to do the deal.

Finally, with the recent management company buy out and now larger stock position held by Hansen and family (in at $8.90 on deal price) maybe they won't be so quick to pull the trigger on another secondary, but somehow I don't feel confident that it won't happen if the rally continues.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/902501?source=feed#comment-16605291 16605291 Thu, 21 Mar 2013 11:43:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1291051/comments?source=feed#comment-16601821 16601821
Obviously, Countrywide was/is a disaster and likely will not yield anything close to what BAC anticipated when they swooped in pre-maturely to buy them right before a bankruptcy for a very questionable aggressive lender. However, Merrill Lynch (the most profitable wealth manager in the world) was an excellent buy and has and will continue to yield returns BAC anticipated.

Merrill never would have been available if their former horrendously bad CEO Stan O'Neal didn't blow the firm up with the ridiculously bad move into sub-prime CDOs. The man's arrogance was without equal and he ignored warnings from seasoned executives within the firm about the exposure to sub-prime when Merrill's holdings were ~$2.5 billion (after many executives left or were forced out O'Neal took the exposure to ~$50.0 billion and actually bought a sub prime lender).

The point here is that Merrill's sub prime fiasco is long gone and the firm is back to being a money machine that BAC will benefit from. It remains to be seen what's left of Countrywide's network and how much it can produce when lending is done responsibly and not just to people with a heartbeat.

All the talk of buybacks to reduce the share count is fine, but do the math. Someone posted buying back 40% which would be ~4.32 billion shares or ~$56.0 billion at $13.00, is that realistic? I don't believe it is since it is over 60% of revenue (which has been shrinking fast as BAC is forced to shrink by regulators and shed assets) and how long will investors (not traders) be willing to wait while not be compensated/paid to wait with dividends. They can buy other bank stocks that yield market rates while participating in share appreciation if the economy improves.

Finally, I think BAC moves higher, as stated earlier, but litigation needs to end and the government needs to stop using banks as their ATM. If this were to occur AND BAC grows their revenues back toward the $100.0 billion level with increased profitability the share could reach $20.00 or even a little higher which would give BAC a market cap over $200.0 billion, which would put them in the company of other U.S. large cap blue chip household names. Anything significantly higher than theses levels is likely wishful thinking and would take huge increase in inflation in the coming years, which may happen, but that is whole other discussion.]]> Thu, 21 Mar 2013 10:49:58 -0400
Obviously, Countrywide was/is a disaster and likely will not yield anything close to what BAC anticipated when they swooped in pre-maturely to buy them right before a bankruptcy for a very questionable aggressive lender. However, Merrill Lynch (the most profitable wealth manager in the world) was an excellent buy and has and will continue to yield returns BAC anticipated.

Merrill never would have been available if their former horrendously bad CEO Stan O'Neal didn't blow the firm up with the ridiculously bad move into sub-prime CDOs. The man's arrogance was without equal and he ignored warnings from seasoned executives within the firm about the exposure to sub-prime when Merrill's holdings were ~$2.5 billion (after many executives left or were forced out O'Neal took the exposure to ~$50.0 billion and actually bought a sub prime lender).

The point here is that Merrill's sub prime fiasco is long gone and the firm is back to being a money machine that BAC will benefit from. It remains to be seen what's left of Countrywide's network and how much it can produce when lending is done responsibly and not just to people with a heartbeat.

All the talk of buybacks to reduce the share count is fine, but do the math. Someone posted buying back 40% which would be ~4.32 billion shares or ~$56.0 billion at $13.00, is that realistic? I don't believe it is since it is over 60% of revenue (which has been shrinking fast as BAC is forced to shrink by regulators and shed assets) and how long will investors (not traders) be willing to wait while not be compensated/paid to wait with dividends. They can buy other bank stocks that yield market rates while participating in share appreciation if the economy improves.

Finally, I think BAC moves higher, as stated earlier, but litigation needs to end and the government needs to stop using banks as their ATM. If this were to occur AND BAC grows their revenues back toward the $100.0 billion level with increased profitability the share could reach $20.00 or even a little higher which would give BAC a market cap over $200.0 billion, which would put them in the company of other U.S. large cap blue chip household names. Anything significantly higher than theses levels is likely wishful thinking and would take huge increase in inflation in the coming years, which may happen, but that is whole other discussion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1287371/comments?source=feed#comment-16544711 16544711
This is an easy way to rebalance portfolios and you never will second guess yourself when major sell offs come with "should of", "could of", "would of" or the classic "if I only".]]> Wed, 20 Mar 2013 10:43:04 -0400
This is an easy way to rebalance portfolios and you never will second guess yourself when major sell offs come with "should of", "could of", "would of" or the classic "if I only".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1285171/comments?source=feed#comment-16497081 16497081 Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:54:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1285171/comments?source=feed#comment-16496791 16496791 Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:47:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1285171/comments?source=feed#comment-16489021 16489021
Do not forget the Nokia issued a convertible bond last October. The amount convertible represents ~287 million shares, so much of the short interest increase was likely Stat/Convert Arbitrage strategies that are always employed by hedge funds and trading desks when convertibles are issued.]]> Tue, 19 Mar 2013 09:33:04 -0400
Do not forget the Nokia issued a convertible bond last October. The amount convertible represents ~287 million shares, so much of the short interest increase was likely Stat/Convert Arbitrage strategies that are always employed by hedge funds and trading desks when convertibles are issued.]]>