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geodan85

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  • Merrill Lynch And Countrywide Financial: Huge Thorns In The Side Of Bank Of America [View article]
    John Thain was not the reason Merrill imploded. The guilty idiot that destroyed Merrill forcing ultimately the Bank America acquisition was Stan O'Neal, he is the former CEO to blame for Merrill's demise. Thain, actually made the best (for Merrill shareholders) of a very bad situation he inherited from O'Neal.
    Aug 3, 2014. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Insider Activity Is Puzzling [View article]
    There are blackout periods (certainly around the quarterly earnings report) where no buying or selling can take place in a company's stock for certain high level executives. Also, and more importantly, executives at BAC/Merrill get restricted stock (options were done away with years ago for most) EVERY year as part of their VICP ward (variable incentive compensation plan) with three year vesting schedules. Why would any of these executives buy more in the open market when they get it every year? As it vests over the three year period, it is very common for the stock to be sold for liquidity or diversification reasons (claw backs as well aka forfietures). Finally, BAC has over 10 billion shares outstanding, so the amount held by the so called insiders is small and has no impact on price. Looking at insider buying/selling on banks/investment banks is almost useless.
    May 23, 2014. 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Crowd Is Dead Wrong [View article]
    As TincoMonkey states, the mortgage mess is mainly from the Countrywide acquisition. If they never made that mistake BAC would never be in the situation they are in now. Also, BAC is way more then just the old Bank of America from California. They were a serial acquirer in the consolidation of the U.S. banking industry over the last twenty years. The original bank/stock was North Carolina National Bank and some of their big acquisitions before BofA, California were: First Republicbank, Dallas / C&S/Sovran, Atlanta / Barnett Bank, Jacksonville / FleetBoston to name a few. Below is a link to show the creation of the current Bank of America.

    http://bit.ly/1gaGSdS
    May 16, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • White House mulls massive reduction in power emissions [View news story]
    I really believe this White House does whatever it wants and legality of any action be damned, negative press is no worry since most of the media refuses to report on their abuses. It all stems from an arrogant belief of "we know better", which is so far from the truth.

    If this latest absurdity is ever realized it will only succeed in raising utility bills and furthering structural unemployment by reducing jobs in the mining as well as oil and gas industries. 2016 can't come soon enough to rid this country of the most incompetent and clueless administration we have ever been forced to endure.
    May 16, 2014. 08:57 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Crowd Is Dead Wrong [View article]
    Nice article, but most of what you describe is dependent on economic growth, which seems to be slowing. Bank of America's share had been in a obvious up trend with good momentum going into CCAR. That is over and the suspending the dividend increase and buy back due to the accounting error clearly hurt the stock. Taking $25 to $30 billion off in market cap after disclosing the error seems excessive, but likely justified if they don't reinstate the dividend increase after a resubmitting and hopefully approval of their capital plan to the Fed.

    I have said in previous posts on BAC that dividends are very important for financial stocks since the industry's raw product is money and the management of risk and returns on that product. If a bank can't pay a dividend to their investor/owners, then the investor/owners will eventually entrust their capital to other banks who are better at managing risk and return.

    It seems BAC has digested the selling, as you stated, but it also starting to act like dead money and will drift with overall market sentiment. Long term, I believe the stock will eventually be higher as the bank continues to become more utility like with a focus on basic banking and wealth management (essentially their stated strategy). However, the utility like rating implies their need to pay respectable dividends and until they do, I don't expect any resumption of the uptrend.

    Finally, is Cramer really well respected? I guess it depends on who you ask, but he is wrong on so many calls that many people I know have tuned him out long ago.
    May 15, 2014. 08:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: How Is Merrill Lynch Doing? [View article]
    Merrill Lynch was acquired for their wealth management business, which is the most profitable wealth management business in the world. Bank of America years ago banded Merrill on their platform/network and re-organized the private client and institutional businesses. Wealth management is integrated into the bank and has been contributing profits to BAC from the day it closed the deal.

    When you talk about Merrill you need to also highlight the wealth management business, which was and is the crown jewel of the company.
    Apr 28, 2014. 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government reportedly wants more than $13B from BofA over mortgages [View news story]
    TJF, I agree that choices for electing president are usually the lesser of two evils, but I do vote since that right has been paid for in blood throughout our history. I you don't vote, you should not complain about any president or elected official.

    The constant dishonestly by Obama and Holder is pathetic, but like you said most if not all politicians lie to varying degrees. I accept that, but it is the blatant disregard for the law and arrogant elitist attitude of we know better then you of the current administration and their seemingly ability to get away with it by a media (except fox as you stated) that refuses to report these abuses of power.

    Also, your statement "he has wasted tens of thousands of young American lives" seems excessive, you may want to check your numbers. You are quick to condemn the Iraq war under the now proven to be false pretense of weapons of mass destruction, but I believe that another geo-political reason of containing Iran was at play. Having the U.S. Military on their east and west borders should have provided the leverage to achieve the goal of keeping a fanatical religious country that supports terrorism nuclear weapon free. Of course if this was a goal, it has been abandoned by Obama with all the sacrifices made by the young Americans you speak of meaningless. By the way, I know some marines that fought in Fallujah and they didn't believe their effort was wasted at the time.

    Finally, I worked across the street from the twin towers when they were attacked and personally knew someone who was killed, as well as coaching (in pee wee football) the son of a father who was also killed in the attack. The war was brought to us and I believe the United States had no option other then to respond militarily. If you are one of those proponents who said/say it was a crime (9/11) and we should have responded with law enforcement and trials in OUR courts of law giving these murderers OUR due process of law, I recommend you go speak to the widow of my friend and the now high school student of the boy I used to coach who grew up without his father.
    Apr 26, 2014. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Government reportedly wants more than $13B from BofA over mortgages [View news story]
    Flaherty,

    I guess you were responding to my comment (geodan, not geodon), although not sure why Bush is the main point of your comment. Of course, it makes sense if you are just another democrat that refuses to accept failure of any policy they enact and when and if failure does occur, it must be Bush's fault. The inability of this administration and their supporters to accept criticism or that they may be wrong is a major part of the problem.

    I don't believe any president and/or AG has the right to selectively enforce laws in part and/or against select segments of the population or use the IRS as a political tool. I believe that is unconstitutional and seems to be commonplace with the current administration.

    The old saying "one lie leads to ten thousand lies" has never been more relevant when looking at the past five plus years. If you have buyers remorse with Obama, don't blame others and please don't shoot the messenger.
    Apr 25, 2014. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Government reportedly wants more than $13B from BofA over mortgages [View news story]
    Eric Holder should be in jail. He is the worst AG in recent history. Instead of enforcing laws, he believes he is above the law and his primary job is to protect the other incompetent office holder, Obama, who also believes he is above the law and does what he wants by executive orders. Both of these losers can't leave office fast enough. I only hope there is justice in the world and these two are disgraced when they both no longer enjoy executive privilege.
    Apr 24, 2014. 05:19 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Why Buybacks Are Better Than Dividends [View article]
    Share buy backs are fine, but have diminishing returns (less shares retired) in an environment of rising share prices (bull markets). In an environment of falling share prices (bear markets) they tend to be more beneficial since they will retire more shares and somewhat support the share price.

    However, shareholders that desire income and consistent realized cash returns may not view the option of selling shares to realize cash as viable since it may be at lose and producing negative yields (bear market environment). Dividends providing realized cash yields matter, especially for financial stocks regardless of tax consequences since investors have choices on which shares to own.

    As already mentioned tax situations vary over every class of investor as do the differentiation of accounts (IRA, 401, etc...). Having to pay taxes on investment income (dividends, cap gains), while distasteful is what is commonly referred to as a high class problem and can be managed in a variety of ways to reduce the amounts paid.
    Mar 31, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blow to government as judge recommends dismissal of case against BofA [View news story]
    This incompetent anti- business administration will never stop treating business as cash cows to be squeezed for advancement of their re-distribution agenda. However, maybe just maybe, the shakedown attempts in the courts will fail or be delayed until this administration fades into history as one of America's worst ever assembled.
    Mar 28, 2014. 07:44 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed Lesson Of Great Depression And Financial Crisis Blinds Economists To Bubble And Coming Recession [View article]
    John

    Thank you for the clarification. As I understand it now, you graph would indicate negative real returns for the next two years based on the previous seventeen year cycle extrapolated forward. It is interesting since the long term valuation theory on secular bull/bear cycles has a similar end point for the current secular bear market, that is if it has not already ended. A cyclical move lower almost seems certain given other criteria such as fund flows into equities (margin debt increasing), credit spreads (non-investment rated bonds versus highly rated/low risk), ridiculous price to sales ratios on certain groups of large cap stocks and IPO activity that has many companies going public with negative earnings and questionable prospects. Not sure 40% to 80% will happen, but 20% to 30% seems very real and could occur fairly quickly if sentiment turns and fear replaces complacency.
    Mar 24, 2014. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed Lesson Of Great Depression And Financial Crisis Blinds Economists To Bubble And Coming Recession [View article]
    The central bank tightened money supply in the 30s and world wars were on the horizon. I don't believe these conditions exist today. Russia's annexation of Crimea will not lead to global war and commodity prices are lower then last decade thereby helping every industry other than the miners, which will likely help growth/investment (material costs and interest rates matter as well as tax rates).

    I do believe in the 17 year long term valuation theory between secular bull and bear markets (link below), but based on the chart above it shows a p/e at ~70 in the year 2016. If that is the case, the bubble hasn't even come close to forming yet. If we ever get to absurd p/e levels, a crash of 40% to 80% as stated in article, could occur certainly happen.

    However, given current valuations and liquidity via the worlds central banks, it doesn't seem likely a crash is looming. Another cyclical bear may be on the near term horizon, but a total collapse seems unlikely.

    http://bit.ly/VOyxm8
    Mar 24, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predictions For Bank Of America's Capital Return Plan [View article]
    Bank stocks should pay dividends as should all financial stocks, if they are healthy. Their business is financial intermediation and money the main product. To continue to not pay market based dividends, conveys the wrong message to investors who can invest elsewhere.

    J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo both have dividend yields of ~2.5%. If BofA were to pay a comparable yield, the dividend would be ~$.44 cents. It seems expectations for BofA's dividend are anywhere from $.20 to $.26, which if it were to occur would still likely be disappointing when measured against the other two money center banks (I exclude Citi since they are in the somewhat same situation as BofA in trying to be viewed as completely recovered and healthy) and therefore lead to a sell off in share price. No increase would be worse in regards to the sell off.

    Ultimately, over time BofA will likely trade back toward the low $20s, but a cessation of law suits is needed, especially the ones by the government. Unfortunately, that seems unlikely with the current administration and their endless effort to exert control over business with excessive regulation andthe previously mentioned lawsuits.
    Mar 24, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy -11% premarket on gloomy BofA coal assessment [View news story]
    This call sounds late. It also interesting to see a bulge bracket firm talk about a price target ~80% lower and potential liquidity problems. I guess the investment banking area won't be pleased when pitching any deal to Walters to raise funds or advise on mergers/acquisitions.
    Mar 20, 2014. 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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