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  • My Failure With Peabody Which Has Become A Speculative Position [View article]
    Stocks always go lower then expected when you hold and believe the worst has past.

    I doubt BTU will be put into bankruptcy and I don't agree with the 50% probability assigned in this article. Peabody is a takeover target at these price levels and any buyer would have likely have to pay well above $12.00 per share, if normalized valuations are used and coal isn't dead as an energy source (any potential buyer would not believe coal is dead). Also, any takeover would not be easy for a foreign multi-national given Peabody's position in the U.S. and the fact that most of the PBR basin is federal land.

    If BTU and all coal stocks don't rally early next year (institutional year end selling has crushed the sector) takeover/consolidation talk, I believe, will begin to become more evident. Of course, any takeover talk will help the stock and sector rally, therefore this sector looks like a decent long trade into Q1 next year.

    If the losses for most investors in this stock weren't so severe, the article linked below would be funny. The article/award is from earlier this month, clearly no shareholders were consulted.
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Seadrill Q3'14 Earnings And Dividend Suspension [View article]
    They need to roll over debt next year, hence the dividend suspension to please creditors and bond market.

    The question is, will the lower re-pricing occurring in the oil sector be sustained or even push lower? If so, certain drilling isn't as profitable, so day rates will need to adjust lower as well. Seadrill is anticipating lower prices and will pay down some debt to lower their cost basis.

    Best you can say is stock will be dead money for awhile, along with whole sector.
    Nov 27, 2014. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy's Attempt To Get Coal Back On The Agenda: Not Successful [View article]
    Coal will never go away despite the wish by green environmentalists. This article would be better published in a Sierra Club newsletter rather then on an investment information website.

    It is almost comical to say "Peabody's attempt to get coal back on the agenda: not successful" Says who? The author, as far as I can see he has nothing to do with Peabody and clearly isn't privy to internal discussions within the company. I think it safe to say that Peabody will ALWAYS advocate coal and NEVER stop promoting the use as an energy source.

    Finally, was coal really off the agenda? I think not, so the whole article is based on false pretenses.
    Nov 20, 2014. 05:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Buy Before Everyone Else Does [View article]
    MER was trading in the $90s at the time, talk was $110 to $120, it was January of 2007.
    Sep 12, 2014. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Buy Before Everyone Else Does [View article]
    Merrill Lynch Wealth Management was the most profitable private client operation in the world, hopefully B of A doesn't change that, although I know it has changed (first hand knowledge), with regard to management, since the takeover.

    The book "All The devils are here" is a must read for all investors, especially B of A investors since it gives a very thorough description of the financial crisis and devotes two chapters on what happened inside Merrill and Countrywide. Merrill was destroyed by an incompetent CEO, Stan O' Neil, who refused to take advice of experienced traders and risk managers. Countrywide lost their way and like Merrill pushed aside executives who wanted to stop the madness when the signs of the eventual problems began to arise.

    One last observation, after you read the book it is obvious the total U.S. economy was on steroids of free and easy credit of amounts never seen before and certainly never to be seen again. Therefore, all the talk we hear about disappointing economic recovery is a little misleading since any comparison to the economy prior to 2007/2008 is always going to be disappointing when compared to that artificial high.

    However, there is a recovery, albeit not nearly good enough for many people, and given the level of interest rates, it should continue at subpar levels. The key, at least to me, is when QE ends next month will be the level of free reserves in the banking system (link below) which have been growing continuously as QE occurred. If the level of free reserves begins to decline as QE ends, it will be an offset to QE ending and should provide liquidity/credit to the economy and be good for the banking sector's earnings as they lend at better credit spreads. Inflation may begin to rise as a result of a decline of the free reserves, but that will is another discussion.
    Sep 11, 2014. 09:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Corporation CEO Says Coal Is Still On Top, But Is It? [View article]
    All your points essentially are political and represent the liberal/left/environme... view. That's fine, but when investing economics matter as well. Coal is a cheap abundant source of energy with the United States having some of the largest reserves in the world. This is an asset that will be used despite the current administration's disregard (and attack) for anything fossil fuel related that would help the U.S. in trade and/or competitive advantages for industries based on the North American continent.

    Presidents and their appointees change, thankfully, and when the current harmful crew (harmful to our economy, international standing, rule of law to name a few, but not all) leaves, coal will recover and Peabody's stock will be higher.
    Aug 20, 2014. 07:41 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrill Lynch And Countrywide Financial: Huge Thorns In The Side Of Bank Of America [View article]
    John Thain was not the reason Merrill imploded. The guilty idiot that destroyed Merrill forcing ultimately the Bank America acquisition was Stan O'Neal, he is the former CEO to blame for Merrill's demise. Thain, actually made the best (for Merrill shareholders) of a very bad situation he inherited from O'Neal.
    Aug 3, 2014. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Insider Activity Is Puzzling [View article]
    There are blackout periods (certainly around the quarterly earnings report) where no buying or selling can take place in a company's stock for certain high level executives. Also, and more importantly, executives at BAC/Merrill get restricted stock (options were done away with years ago for most) EVERY year as part of their VICP ward (variable incentive compensation plan) with three year vesting schedules. Why would any of these executives buy more in the open market when they get it every year? As it vests over the three year period, it is very common for the stock to be sold for liquidity or diversification reasons (claw backs as well aka forfietures). Finally, BAC has over 10 billion shares outstanding, so the amount held by the so called insiders is small and has no impact on price. Looking at insider buying/selling on banks/investment banks is almost useless.
    May 23, 2014. 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Crowd Is Dead Wrong [View article]
    As TincoMonkey states, the mortgage mess is mainly from the Countrywide acquisition. If they never made that mistake BAC would never be in the situation they are in now. Also, BAC is way more then just the old Bank of America from California. They were a serial acquirer in the consolidation of the U.S. banking industry over the last twenty years. The original bank/stock was North Carolina National Bank and some of their big acquisitions before BofA, California were: First Republicbank, Dallas / C&S/Sovran, Atlanta / Barnett Bank, Jacksonville / FleetBoston to name a few. Below is a link to show the creation of the current Bank of America.
    May 16, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • White House mulls massive reduction in power emissions [View news story]
    I really believe this White House does whatever it wants and legality of any action be damned, negative press is no worry since most of the media refuses to report on their abuses. It all stems from an arrogant belief of "we know better", which is so far from the truth.

    If this latest absurdity is ever realized it will only succeed in raising utility bills and furthering structural unemployment by reducing jobs in the mining as well as oil and gas industries. 2016 can't come soon enough to rid this country of the most incompetent and clueless administration we have ever been forced to endure.
    May 16, 2014. 08:57 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Crowd Is Dead Wrong [View article]
    Nice article, but most of what you describe is dependent on economic growth, which seems to be slowing. Bank of America's share had been in a obvious up trend with good momentum going into CCAR. That is over and the suspending the dividend increase and buy back due to the accounting error clearly hurt the stock. Taking $25 to $30 billion off in market cap after disclosing the error seems excessive, but likely justified if they don't reinstate the dividend increase after a resubmitting and hopefully approval of their capital plan to the Fed.

    I have said in previous posts on BAC that dividends are very important for financial stocks since the industry's raw product is money and the management of risk and returns on that product. If a bank can't pay a dividend to their investor/owners, then the investor/owners will eventually entrust their capital to other banks who are better at managing risk and return.

    It seems BAC has digested the selling, as you stated, but it also starting to act like dead money and will drift with overall market sentiment. Long term, I believe the stock will eventually be higher as the bank continues to become more utility like with a focus on basic banking and wealth management (essentially their stated strategy). However, the utility like rating implies their need to pay respectable dividends and until they do, I don't expect any resumption of the uptrend.

    Finally, is Cramer really well respected? I guess it depends on who you ask, but he is wrong on so many calls that many people I know have tuned him out long ago.
    May 15, 2014. 08:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: How Is Merrill Lynch Doing? [View article]
    Merrill Lynch was acquired for their wealth management business, which is the most profitable wealth management business in the world. Bank of America years ago banded Merrill on their platform/network and re-organized the private client and institutional businesses. Wealth management is integrated into the bank and has been contributing profits to BAC from the day it closed the deal.

    When you talk about Merrill you need to also highlight the wealth management business, which was and is the crown jewel of the company.
    Apr 28, 2014. 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government reportedly wants more than $13B from BofA over mortgages [View news story]
    TJF, I agree that choices for electing president are usually the lesser of two evils, but I do vote since that right has been paid for in blood throughout our history. I you don't vote, you should not complain about any president or elected official.

    The constant dishonestly by Obama and Holder is pathetic, but like you said most if not all politicians lie to varying degrees. I accept that, but it is the blatant disregard for the law and arrogant elitist attitude of we know better then you of the current administration and their seemingly ability to get away with it by a media (except fox as you stated) that refuses to report these abuses of power.

    Also, your statement "he has wasted tens of thousands of young American lives" seems excessive, you may want to check your numbers. You are quick to condemn the Iraq war under the now proven to be false pretense of weapons of mass destruction, but I believe that another geo-political reason of containing Iran was at play. Having the U.S. Military on their east and west borders should have provided the leverage to achieve the goal of keeping a fanatical religious country that supports terrorism nuclear weapon free. Of course if this was a goal, it has been abandoned by Obama with all the sacrifices made by the young Americans you speak of meaningless. By the way, I know some marines that fought in Fallujah and they didn't believe their effort was wasted at the time.

    Finally, I worked across the street from the twin towers when they were attacked and personally knew someone who was killed, as well as coaching (in pee wee football) the son of a father who was also killed in the attack. The war was brought to us and I believe the United States had no option other then to respond militarily. If you are one of those proponents who said/say it was a crime (9/11) and we should have responded with law enforcement and trials in OUR courts of law giving these murderers OUR due process of law, I recommend you go speak to the widow of my friend and the now high school student of the boy I used to coach who grew up without his father.
    Apr 26, 2014. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Government reportedly wants more than $13B from BofA over mortgages [View news story]

    I guess you were responding to my comment (geodan, not geodon), although not sure why Bush is the main point of your comment. Of course, it makes sense if you are just another democrat that refuses to accept failure of any policy they enact and when and if failure does occur, it must be Bush's fault. The inability of this administration and their supporters to accept criticism or that they may be wrong is a major part of the problem.

    I don't believe any president and/or AG has the right to selectively enforce laws in part and/or against select segments of the population or use the IRS as a political tool. I believe that is unconstitutional and seems to be commonplace with the current administration.

    The old saying "one lie leads to ten thousand lies" has never been more relevant when looking at the past five plus years. If you have buyers remorse with Obama, don't blame others and please don't shoot the messenger.
    Apr 25, 2014. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Government reportedly wants more than $13B from BofA over mortgages [View news story]
    Eric Holder should be in jail. He is the worst AG in recent history. Instead of enforcing laws, he believes he is above the law and his primary job is to protect the other incompetent office holder, Obama, who also believes he is above the law and does what he wants by executive orders. Both of these losers can't leave office fast enough. I only hope there is justice in the world and these two are disgraced when they both no longer enjoy executive privilege.
    Apr 24, 2014. 05:19 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment