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geodan85

geodan85
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  • Bank Of America: With No Dividend Hike Shareholders Are Fleeing [View article]
    Definitely not. For a large cap like BAC they have volume restrictions (25%), tick rules for buying (minus or zero plus), have to conclude buying by 3:50 pm (not to influence close) and blackout periods around earnings release as well as other meaningful news (acquisitions/mergers). Also, they can negotiate private market transactions as well. I know they wouldn't be working any buyback in the week (or two) before the earnings release, but can't remember if they are allowed back in right on the day of the release. I used to work these type of orders for corporate clients when I traded for a major investment bank (currently retired and wish my memory was as good as it used to be).
    Apr 17, 2013. 02:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: With No Dividend Hike Shareholders Are Fleeing [View article]
    BAC is now below the level (prior to the announced buybacks of preferred and common shares with no dividend increase) and long term investors in the stock (if they didn't sell any shares) are no longer benefitting from those post stress test moves (at least in the short term). Any dividend increase would have been a better way to reward investors (as I outlined in previous comments) rather than traders.

    Also, I don't believe BAC can be buying their stock back today under 10b-18 rules which restricts buybacks to volume restrictions, minus or zero plus ticks and blackout periods around earnings announcements. Therefore, longer term investors don't benefit from the company buying at deeper discounts to book on a weak trading day as today (of course further weakness during non blackouts periods, in theory could further benefit value if it occurs and they are buying back stock).
    Apr 17, 2013. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Becoming More Ambitious [View article]
    It is surprising NOK is still below $4.00 and not moving back toward $5.00 given what was just pointed out concerning the sooner then expected market share increase. I guess the brand name investment bank security analysts are not as attentive to details as the author, but it seems they will likely acknowledge this when the earnings release / conference call highlights are announced next week (I guess they will wake up and do their job then) and likely recommend a move back into the stock AFTER a decent move higher.

    Good work by Jacob Steinberg in noticing the fact they are now more specific regarding a timeline.
    Apr 12, 2013. 02:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most U.S. consumers remain either unfamiliar with or unenthusiastic about Nokia (NOK) and BlackBerry's (BBRY) latest hardware, according to an MKM survey of 1,500 people. While 51% of respondents owned a smartphone, only 6% plan to buy a BlackBerry in the next 12 months, and just 1% a Nokia phone. Moreover, in spite of the Z10 and Lumia 920/820 launches, 63% of respondents had no idea when BB10 would launch in the U.S., and 61% were unaware WP8 (MSFT) phones are available. BlackBerry is counting on a fresh marketing push to raise its U.S. profile. [View news story]
    I don't believe the issue is to position the phone as a gaming platform (smartphones are that to many young people), but is the slow roll out of apps (gaming or anything else) for WP8 that is slowing sales and maybe why marketing is not as aggressive as it should be.
    Apr 11, 2013. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America First Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    I agree with some comments above how hard it is to evaluate BAC. With that in mind, check out the annual report pages 207- 215 for issues I believe still holding this stock back and more specifically reps and warranties. The potential claims/liabilities went up last year, but the provision went down therefore the potential for future disappointment to earnings (and earnings potential) exists and will likely keep the stock in the current range until these claims/litigation are ultimately resolved.

    One other point, I don't agree with the author's comments about large losses stacking up from Merrill Lynch (Countrywide definitely is a major drag on the bank). Merrill Lynch is a cash generating machine (John Thain cleaned up a lot of O'Neal's mess prior to the BAC acquisition) and the BAC purchase (with all stock) was a good one, although some further mortgage CDOs needed to be written off immediately after closing the deal. This was discovered after the fact when BAC tried to back out of the deal and was pretty much told not to by U.S. Treasury and the Fed (BAC and all major money center banks are in essence operating subsidiaries of the Fed and likely to remain so). However, since then Merrill contributed significantly to the holding companies earnings in the subsequent years after the acquisition and continues to be a positive contributor to cash flow and earnings (likely why Tom Montag is compensated higher then Brian Moynihan).

    Apr 11, 2013. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most U.S. consumers remain either unfamiliar with or unenthusiastic about Nokia (NOK) and BlackBerry's (BBRY) latest hardware, according to an MKM survey of 1,500 people. While 51% of respondents owned a smartphone, only 6% plan to buy a BlackBerry in the next 12 months, and just 1% a Nokia phone. Moreover, in spite of the Z10 and Lumia 920/820 launches, 63% of respondents had no idea when BB10 would launch in the U.S., and 61% were unaware WP8 (MSFT) phones are available. BlackBerry is counting on a fresh marketing push to raise its U.S. profile. [View news story]
    Ty, yes Temple Run, I just asked him. I guess it is popular, and that is what WP8 needs to do to get better traction in the younger market..
    Apr 10, 2013. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most U.S. consumers remain either unfamiliar with or unenthusiastic about Nokia (NOK) and BlackBerry's (BBRY) latest hardware, according to an MKM survey of 1,500 people. While 51% of respondents owned a smartphone, only 6% plan to buy a BlackBerry in the next 12 months, and just 1% a Nokia phone. Moreover, in spite of the Z10 and Lumia 920/820 launches, 63% of respondents had no idea when BB10 would launch in the U.S., and 61% were unaware WP8 (MSFT) phones are available. BlackBerry is counting on a fresh marketing push to raise its U.S. profile. [View news story]
    WP8 needs more advertising by MSFT and NOK to raise awareness. However, they need more apps before they aggressively market.

    Case in point, I have three sons (triplets) in high school. Last year we upgraded to smartphones, one got the I phone, one the galaxy and one the Nokia 920. My son with the Nokia 920 recently told me a game app (can't remember the name of the game) became available on his WP8 920 Nokia phone and he was very happy.

    The problem for WP8 phones is still the lack of apps/games for this younger target market. He tells me hardly anyone has Nokia WP8 phones in school (or any other manufacturers of WP8) with I phones and android phones dominating. Until popular apps/games become more available it seems marketing and increasing operating system awareness will be similar to pushing on a string for certain segments of the market.
    Apr 9, 2013. 05:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankrupt Patriot Coal (PCXCQ.OB) and its creditors are looking at whether the firm's spinoff from Peabody Energy (BTU) in 2007 was a "fraudulent transfer" aimed at relieving the latter of retiree health and pension benefits, problematic mines and other liabilities. Patriot and the creditors could gain "a sizable recovery" if evidence of fraud is found. Peabody naturally denies that anything was amiss. [View news story]
    Six years ago is a long time to blame someone else for current mismanagement/business problems that led to bankruptcy. However, I guess PCX is taking a cue from the current U.S. administration which continues to blame the previous one for their incompetence of the last four and half years of their management.
    Apr 4, 2013. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Too Soon To Look At Nordic American Tankers? [View article]
    They could not even wait for a move back into the teens before another secondary. Looks like the recent rally is over.
    Apr 1, 2013. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Too Soon To Look At Nordic American Tankers? [View article]
    The 7th annual shipping forum was last Thursday in NYC. A friend of my went and said there was some buzz that things are picking up, although most of it was related to product tankers. Also, John Frederiksen (absolutely the most respected name in shipping) said a couple of months ago that tankers would lead the rebound (VLCCs will take longer he also pointed out), although he was forecasting it was still a year to a year and half away.

    The only metric that really matters for NAT is the suezmax spot rate and that still is low. Stronger global growth is needed for the rate to be sustained north of $20,000 per day (what the author is looking for as mentioned) and given the U.S., Europe and China it seems we still are not there.

    The recent rally looks like a short covering rally. The average volume of the last seven days and including today (~1.4mil as I write) is ~1.3 million shares, which means if it is a short squeeze going into month/quarter end it will likely end soon. If the stock continues to rally next week, then something else is going on.

    I believe NAT is too low, although I also remember when the stock acted well (similar to the recent move) and was rallying back from the low teens to the mid teens with the potential to move back toward $19 - $20. However, management stopped the rally cold with a secondary (I think it was ~$15.50) which was disappointing since I though they should have waited for higher prices to do the deal.

    Finally, with the recent management company buy out and now larger stock position held by Hansen and family (in at $8.90 on deal price) maybe they won't be so quick to pull the trigger on another secondary, but somehow I don't feel confident that it won't happen if the rally continues.
    Mar 25, 2013. 03:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poor cash flow trends for Nokia's (NOK -0.7%) phone business are being masked by the strong performance of a resurgent Nokia Siemens, argues BofA/Merrill, which reiterates an Underperform. Should a spinoff, sale, or IPO of NSN happen following the pending expiration of Nokia and Siemens' JV agreement (as many expect), the firm thinks Nokia's handset cash flow challenges will become more apparent. [View news story]
    I can't remember when Merrill had an analyst that has made a right call on Nokia in decades. I pay no attention to their analysis on this stock.
    Mar 21, 2013. 11:43 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Profits Point To Dividend Growth [View article]
    BAC will likely trade back toward the $15.00 level (providing the overall market rally doesn't fade). I have commented on why BAC should have increased the dividend and why they most likely didn't on other articles on SA and do not want to be redundant. A small dividend increase combined with the buyback would have sent a stronger message about the improvement in BAC.

    Obviously, Countrywide was/is a disaster and likely will not yield anything close to what BAC anticipated when they swooped in pre-maturely to buy them right before a bankruptcy for a very questionable aggressive lender. However, Merrill Lynch (the most profitable wealth manager in the world) was an excellent buy and has and will continue to yield returns BAC anticipated.

    Merrill never would have been available if their former horrendously bad CEO Stan O'Neal didn't blow the firm up with the ridiculously bad move into sub-prime CDOs. The man's arrogance was without equal and he ignored warnings from seasoned executives within the firm about the exposure to sub-prime when Merrill's holdings were ~$2.5 billion (after many executives left or were forced out O'Neal took the exposure to ~$50.0 billion and actually bought a sub prime lender).

    The point here is that Merrill's sub prime fiasco is long gone and the firm is back to being a money machine that BAC will benefit from. It remains to be seen what's left of Countrywide's network and how much it can produce when lending is done responsibly and not just to people with a heartbeat.

    All the talk of buybacks to reduce the share count is fine, but do the math. Someone posted buying back 40% which would be ~4.32 billion shares or ~$56.0 billion at $13.00, is that realistic? I don't believe it is since it is over 60% of revenue (which has been shrinking fast as BAC is forced to shrink by regulators and shed assets) and how long will investors (not traders) be willing to wait while not be compensated/paid to wait with dividends. They can buy other bank stocks that yield market rates while participating in share appreciation if the economy improves.

    Finally, I think BAC moves higher, as stated earlier, but litigation needs to end and the government needs to stop using banks as their ATM. If this were to occur AND BAC grows their revenues back toward the $100.0 billion level with increased profitability the share could reach $20.00 or even a little higher which would give BAC a market cap over $200.0 billion, which would put them in the company of other U.S. large cap blue chip household names. Anything significantly higher than theses levels is likely wishful thinking and would take huge increase in inflation in the coming years, which may happen, but that is whole other discussion.
    Mar 21, 2013. 10:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Prepare For A Stock Market Downturn [View article]
    Sell half or a third of your core holdings at high valuations, providing you don't need it all for income. Buy them back when they go to historical averages or become undervalued.

    This is an easy way to rebalance portfolios and you never will second guess yourself when major sell offs come with "should of", "could of", "would of" or the classic "if I only".
    Mar 20, 2013. 10:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Interest For Nokia Is At An All-Time High [View article]
    I failed to mention that share totals long/short would need to be equal to eliminate the equity risk. If long side is larger, then equity risk is tilted that way.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Interest For Nokia Is At An All-Time High [View article]
    A long NOK adr position while short ordinary share position in or for the same account is no longer an equity position and has become a synthetic currency bet/position. In the case described by Seppo2, the position is long euros and short U.S. dollar.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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