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  • Nokia's (NOK -2.6%) is likely to issue a Q2 warning in the next few weeks, writes RBC in a note that's pressuring shares. In addition to tough smartphone competition, the firm is worried about declining feature phone sales. Nokia's feature phone unit shipments fell 21% Y/Y in Q1 thanks to Android's low-end momentum, and its feature phone ASP fell 10% Q/Q and 15% Y/Y to just €28 ($36).  [View news story]
    This forecast/speculation is a joke, RBC should concentrate on analysis of research they may or should do first hand. This seems like they a voicing an opinion based on headlines that may or may not be completely factual. Maybe, RBC should focus on Canada and try to add value for their clients in areas they are likely more informed.
    May 30, 2013. 10:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's New Phone Announcement Leads To A Sell-Off  [View article]
    The important point here is Nokia increasing distribution channels and carriers. While not exactly exciting, slow and steady increases in sales of Lumia phones will likely follow. The result should be a share price trending higher in a more sustainable move, rather than the sharp increase/correction volatility seen late last year and earlier this year.
    May 16, 2013. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Hecla Mining Now A Buy?  [View article]
    I think the price of silver is more important to Hecla than gold. A chart against the silver price would be more interesting.

    If you believe central bank printing of money eventually leads to inflation, all the miners are too cheap. HL is definitely a value at these levels and can double fairly quickly if sentiment in the sector turns.
    May 16, 2013. 08:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A VirnetX Short Squeeze May Be Setting Up  [View article]
    Institutions like Wellington and Fidelity do trade around their positions. The 7.5mil shares you highlight are tradable float. Therefore, the shorts in the stock you mentioned are likely hoping for a fundamental breakdown in the metrics for the stock and a panic selling by the big institutions, which was commonly referred to in the institutional trading business as "bid wanted". If this were to occur, the liquidity to cover would be ample for the shorts.
    May 13, 2013. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Dispelling Attacks And Myths  [View article]
    I would reverse he observation in that the bearish Nokia bullish Blackberry comparison article with Nokia being the Audi and Blackberry the Kia.

    Audi is owned by Volkswagen the giant with multiple brands and is more similar to Nokia then Blackberry the small player with, as described above, with less diversification. I remember when it took VW a while to turnaround Audi's perception in the market (remember the so called acceleration problems many years ago) and now Audi is considered one of the premier luxury brands in automobiles and selling very well. Kia as far as I know has no premier status in the upper end car market and likely will not be there in many years (if ever).

    Finally, the author of that article is likely unhappy with NOK price action starting to trend higher again and is trying (in vain) to halt next up move in NOK shares.
    May 9, 2013. 08:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A new twist in the legal battle between AIG and BAC as a judge rules the insurer did not give up its right to sue BofA over $7B in MBS-related losses even though it unloaded the paper as part of its bailout. The FRBNY has already settled with BofA over MBS its Maiden Lane II took in from AIG as part of the rescue.  [View news story]
    AIG should concentrate on re-building a very tarnished brand and stay out of litigation that reminds everyone of the idiotic mistakes they made writing CDSs for regulatory arbitrage that turned out didn't really exist.

    I also agree with a previous post about the right to sue being very different from the ability to really have a chance of winning and a case that will be heard.
    May 7, 2013. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Lumia Ad: Outrageous But Brilliant At The Same Time  [View article]
    It is about time Microsoft takes the gloves off and starts aggressive advertising for WP8/Lumia. An aggressive ad campaign should indicate any supply issues regarding Lumia are now gone.

    I will point out that I would have not seen the ad yet, but it was shown to me by my teenage son on YouTube. This is also an excellent development for Lumia phones since it indicates the younger market is being made aware of this phone and could help win converts in that demographic segment.
    May 1, 2013. 10:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. oil boom is bad news for the business of hauling crude oil across the oceans, and isn't likely to pick up any time soon. It means a poor outlook at best for the stocks in the sector, Jefferies says, which projects Frontline (FRO) will lose $2.33/share this year in earnings and $2.09 next; North American Tankers (NAT) also is expected to lose money this year and next.  [View news story]
    Jefferies is just figuring this out know? Brilliant. Volumes to China to Asia will continue to grow. Also, petroleum product exports from the U.S. are growing as well (the U.S. has been a net exporter of products for two years), this was highlighted at the Shipping conference in NYC a few weeks ago. Tankers that can carry products are already benefiting.
    Apr 26, 2013. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody's Q1 Results And Coal Outlook  [View article]
    BTU is too cheap at these levels, but the sector is essentially dead money. When the interest returns to this sector, BTU will rise quickly.

    I still question why management didn't issue additional equity in conjunction with the Macarthur coal acquisition (or even before when they were obviously contemplating growth strategies and the stock was riding high), but they seem focused on working down the debt and hopefully don't do an issue at these levels. This potential/belief of an equity issue may also be holding the shares down as well.
    Apr 24, 2013. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Why It's Going Higher  [View article]
    I hope your forecasts are right, especially with the dividend. However, do not forget the Tarp A warrants adjust for the dividend, so BAC management may still go slow on increases since they seem intent on reducing the massive amount of shares outstanding.

    Also, litigation/settlements is a variable that can lay waste to any forecast, conservative or aggressive. Unfortunately, litigation costs/settlements are still an unknown issue for BAC and will likely hold the stock back.

    Finally, I believe one reason BAC is performing better this week is simply that they are now executing the stock buyback, which is governed by 10b-18 rules that stipulates blackout periods around earning announcements as well as other significant transactions such as mergers, acquisitions/divestitu... Other restrictions apply such as tick rules (need to buy on minus or zero plus ticks) and percentage of volume restrictions (no more than 25%).
    Apr 24, 2013. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not So Fast With The Countrywide Settlement  [View article]
    TBV

    I agree with you, until the litigation piling on ends against the banks, the economy essentially goes no where since credit will be restricted. BofA should have obtained better terms from the government, if as exbofa states, a not so subtle threat was made. The real toxic stuff could have been put to a Maiden Lane type deal with the Fed as was done with AIG.

    The question that remains is if the litigation against the Countrywide toxic assets goes massively against BAC, can the Countrywide holding still be put into bankruptcy thereby protecting the rest of BAC. This question has never been properly answered and is open to legal questions/attacks and would bring even more litigation since there would be no value to seek restitution if Countrywide was put into bankruptcy at the subsidiary level with no legal claim on the rest of BAC. The legal issue is over the conveyance and value of asset transfers between the different entities. I am not even sure BAC's senior management knows how this would play out (likely why it hasn't occurred) if they attempted it since it would almost certainly be challenged in court.

    Regarding the other so called forced acquisition, Merrill has been integrated and banded on the BAC platform, so any spin off of Merrill to raise capital would be difficult (if needed), although not impossible. Merrill is back to being a very profitable machine and I doubt BAC wants to part with it and are glad that one of the two financial crisis acquisitions is paying off. However, the Countrywide losses dwarf any of the Merrill contributions and Countrywide still creates the uncertainty in forecasting anything regarding BAC's earning power moving forward and will continue to act as a brake on any meaningful share appreciation.
    Apr 22, 2013. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few More Reasons To Be Skeptical About Bank Of America's Management  [View article]
    From the article "With shares trading in the teens for the last four years, many investors believe that now is the time for a significant rebound."

    Most traders/investors in BAC would welcome the "teens" rather then the pre-teen years we are currently in for almost two years.

    The issue for BAC is as Tim Travis mentions above, litigation and legacy assets, favorable resolution and the stock becomes a teenager ready to graduate high school.
    Apr 22, 2013. 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Financial Shenanigans, Painful Truth Coming  [View article]
    T Mobile would have been a help to growth, but it failed to gain DOJ approval (big misread by T's management) and it cost T billions in real cash in the penalty payment to the Germans which could have used part of that payment to fund the pension.

    Interesting read on the preferred treatment for funding the pension gap, sounds like government accounting, so maybe DOL will approve it since they can relate to these type of transactions.
    Apr 22, 2013. 09:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's the dreaded "impossible trinity." Commodities, stocks, and bonds are all giving conflicting signals on the global economy, says BAML's David Woo, and their resolution could be a source of a "major realignment" of prices. Commodities (DBC) signal slow down, stocks (VTI) price in strong consumer spending, and bonds have completely lost it - government paper (TLT) says run for the hills, while credit spreads (LQD, HYG, JNK) say things are rosy.  [View news story]
    To address the "impossible trinity" comments. First government bonds (GSEs) are currently not a reflection of real market sentiment since the FED is distorting those markets directly with purchases.

    Second, Commodities are more interesting since real demand/supply issues are drivers. However, the Chinese play a major role in demand and it would be no surprise overblown fears over a severe slowing in their economy may be somewhat by design (does anyone real believe Chinese official data?) to enable opportune purchases at lower prices. On the supply side, producers are cutting production due to lower prices and slower demand (read Europe as a primary driver of slowing demand). However, these actions will stabilize prices and eventually allow for future rises since money is being printed globally faster than any commodity production can or will be ramped up when increased demand returns.

    Third, Stocks (Junk bonds as well since they tend to trade more with stock market sentiment) have and likely will continue to benefit from all the liquidity being produced by central banks. Profitability has been good due to lower financing costs and cost controls (read layoffs for most industries) which has allowed the market to trade higher on valuation which has been inline with historical averages. The key will be top line growth going forward since most of the cost side gains have been realized. If topline growth disappoints, the slide can continue, but likely will be limited since when you run to cash and realize it still yields next to nothing it is hard to justify staying there too long, especially if you are being paid to manage money (institutions will likely be buyers on further downdrafts).

    Finally, the real test will come when QEs stop globally, although they likely won't stop until Europe is able to pull their weight. My guess is when QEs are wound down the inflation begins since the money that has been put into the banking system will really start to be released and then it makes sense to be long some commodities, stocks and short bonds.
    Apr 19, 2013. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Ignites Coal Trade  [View article]
    As natgas rises coal becomes more attractive and switching will continue. BTU's international comments were very interesting as well with growth both in China and India. BTU also generates very decent cash and continues to work down debt associated with the Macarthur Coal acquisition, which incurred more debt when AcelorMittal backed out on the joint purchase with Peabody.

    BTU is a great long term buy and in my opinion will double (and likely higher) over the next few years. The current U.S. leadership will not be around forever (thankfully) and their incompetence on energy policy will fade. Also, has anyone noticed that Germany is burning more coal as well as they attempt to move away from nuclear.

    Patience is required with BTU, but ultimately I see these shares much higher when the realization that a cheap abundant stable supply for the power industry isn't going away anytime soon.
    Apr 18, 2013. 07:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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