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  • Silver miners (SIL -0.6%) are struggling with low prices, as evidenced by Q3 results from Hecla Mining (HL -4.8%) and Coeur d'Alene (CDE -18.8%), where prices were down 23% and 5.5% Y/Y respectively; a 14% drop was blamed for falling revenues and profits at Silver Wheaton (SLW -0.5%). Pan American Silver (PAAS -2.3%) is scheduled to report Thursday. [View news story]
    Hecla silver production +19% to 1.6mil ozs, with costs at $3.52 per oz and Lucky Friday mine still out with return expected Q1 next year. Somehow this doesn't look like a struggle. Stock down with a so called earning miss, but revenues beat and production will bounce back next year with return of Lucky Friday mine. HL no debt pays small divi based on silver price, today looks like a buying opportunity.
    Nov 6, 2012. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shh! Analysts Are Quietly Upgrading Nokia [View article]
    NOK volume fairly light (avg 3 month vol ~57mil) and lower price likely residual selling from arbs setting up spread against convertible bond issue this week. Also, the fact that they issued eur 750mil in convertible bonds shows they access to capital and not heading to a BK anytime soon, hence the change in sentiment from analysts.
    Oct 26, 2012. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Alcoa's Report Bullish Or Bearish? [View article]
    It seems like most of the negative scenario is priced into AA. The current CEO Klaus Kleinfeld (was a former CEO of Siemens) is cutting costs and focusing on growth areas (downstream and midstream) and recognizes the slower global growth environment.

    I believe the current price presents more upside than downside (decent risk/reward metrics) for longer term investors, although it doesn't mean you won't get the opportunity to buy AA cheaper if the overall market corrects over the next six months to a year.
    Oct 10, 2012. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Headwaters Is Not A Turnaround Situation Play [View article]
    I believe HW's move into building products segment was late in the boom, therefore they likely overpaid and made little money.
    Sep 28, 2012. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Rallying On Strong Balance Sheet: The Road Ahead From Here [View article]
    The recent Fed announcement that they will buy $40.0bil a month in agency paper should minimize any negative impact of put backs by the agencies to BAC. BAC should be able to sell these loans/bonds to the Fed if they are forced to buy back the paper from the agencies, although prices will determine any P&L impact. QE3 is a continuation of support for the U.S. banks, another reason BAC rallied back toward $10.00.

    I also believe the Fed action is back door way of helping the ECB with the European bank bailout (still a major risk for global banking given derivative exposure) since any agency paper held by European banks can be used as collateral at the ECB and/or be sold to the Fed as a way to offset their own QE efforts (something that will please Germany). Once Europe reaches an agreement to back stop their banking system (still waiting for a pan Euro Banking Authority to be created) a further rally in the large U.S. banks wouldn't be a surprise and may take BAC back to the low double digits.
    Sep 20, 2012. 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Headwaters: A Turnaround Play Worth A Look For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    I have followed HW for years and this company always seems to find funding when they need it. Also, they did a share secondary a few years ago (see below / likely why the stock had a problem moving away for the $4.00-$4.50 range in March through July), so another secondary wouldn't be a surprise and if the fundamentals contiune to improve the impact on price would likely be temporary.

    9,600,000 Shares of our Common Stock

    We are offering directly to selected investors 9,600,000 shares of our common stock pursuant to this prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus. The common stock is being offered at a per share purchase price of $3.90.

    Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “HW.” The last reported sale price of our common stock on the New York Stock Exchange on September 16, 2009 was $4.44 per share.

    We are offering these shares of common stock on a best efforts basis to certain institutional investors. We have retained Canaccord Adams Inc. as our lead placement agent and Stephens Inc. and Avondale Partners, LLC as our co-placement agents in connection with this offering.
    Sep 18, 2012. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tanker (NAT -1.4%) acquires the remaining 50% shareholding interest in Orion Tanker Pool from Frontline (FRO -9.1%), effective January, 2013. Once the transaction closes, Orion will become a 100% subsidiary of NAT. FRO's nine suezmax vessels will leave Orion later this year after the shipper advised NAT that it wishes to be more flexible in the operation of its vessels. [View news story]
    NAT already announced an analyst call for 9/25, should be interesting to hear what they say about why they are buying out FRO. It seems NAT may be reverting (recent Exxon Mobil charter deal) to what they were originally created for, a fleet of tankers transporting BP oil.

    A question for the call; What will the these charters bring in steady cash flow (as well as duration since rates will likely be locked) at the expense upside (and downside) to spot rates? Is FRO leaving since they expect better spot rates? FRO is still controlled by John Frederickson, who is one the more knowledgeable players in the shipping/energy industry.
    Sep 18, 2012. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia - Expect Some Turbulence Before Takeoff [View article]
    Nokia's selloff is overdone and the absence of the price and availability is what apparently disappointed the "professionals". NOK will recover when sales of these phones begin. According to all the media types on bubblevision/CNBC Nokia is finished and Apple and Samsung will dominate. It is easy to state the obvious and extrapolate the current trend.

    However, as mentioned in this article and other reviews, the new WP8 phones by Nokia have certain features that consumers will like. Also, Nokia continues to produce quality products that function well and are durable. It is now up to marketing/advertising these phones by Microsoft, Nokia and the carriers (AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile) who want WP as a third ecosystem. Raising U.S. consumer awareness of these phones is key to building market share in a growing market and doesn't require the so called knockout gamechanger phone that Nokia bears like to use as an excuse to pressure the stock.
    Sep 6, 2012. 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Nokia/Microsoft Blundered Today's Lumia Launch [View article]
    Good article, ultimately the consumer decides and that the bet on NOK is/was always dependent on WP8. Quick success in these new phones the stock soars (a release date would be helpful, maybe that is this Friday as mentioned above), slow sales (looks like the perception today) and stocks stays in the $2.00-$3.00 range as chatter still talks about Nokia's demise, failure, etc..

    I believe Nokia will survive and sales will be okay, although NOK/MSFT will need to do more advertising along with AT&T as well as Verizon to create more consumer awareness of these new products.
    Sep 5, 2012. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK -10.3%) continues to bleed as its Lumia 920 unveiling fails to impress; shares are now down 24% from their Aug. 27 highs. In addition to disappointment over the specs for the 920's PureView camera, the Street might not like the fact Nokia is only promising the phone will be available in "select markets" in Q4 (no date is provided). All signs point to the iPhone 5 going on sale on or around Sep. 21. Nokia also declined to make any promises about tablet releases. (live blog[View news story]
    NOK, Classic buy the anticipation and sell the news. Hopefully Q4 means next month.
    Sep 5, 2012. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Peabody is very interesting as a long term investment in coal, the stocks seems to have bottomed in the low $20's. Revenues are almost equally split between international and domestic. They also have a large Met coal percentage of sales and no exposure to high cost Appalachian coal, with most of their production in the U.S. coming form the PRB out west. They still need to digest the Australian acquisition of Macarthur Coal, which in hindsight was expensive.

    CLF is interesting, although it seems it may have to go lower before a bottom is in (similar to BTU). CLF in the $20's will be worth a look for long term investors.
    Sep 5, 2012. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hurricanes And Their Impact On Oil Prices, Major U.S. Oil Companies [View article]
    GoM shut downs from storms are temporary and will have fleeting impact on oil and gas prices, barring any serious damage to the rigs and/or refineries on the Gulf. Commercial reserves (currently at 364.5mil bls, very high levels / link below) in the U.S. can offset downtime from the offshore platforms. Also, any damage to the LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform) where VLCCs offload would be problematic for prices.
    Aug 29, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: An Unusual Conference Call [View article]
    The Merrill Lynch private client/wealth division in the U.S. was the most profitable in the world and provided a large portion of their profits (before charges) over the last few years. This division of Merrill is considered the crown jewel of the firm and what BAC wanted most when they acquired Merrill in 2008.

    BAC has fully integrated Merrill onto their platform, so a sale will be more difficult then a couple of years ago. Also, under BAC management, some big producing teams from Merrill private client have left. However, I believe BAC wants to keep private client, but may not be so attached to the higher risk capital markets institutional side of the business which also carries the higher risk trading operations.

    A spin-off of the institutional business would seem more likely in that it fits with the lower risk profile the bank seems to be engineering. It would also be inline with what the Fed would like to see for some of the large money center banks.
    Aug 28, 2012. 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Is Rallying Now [View article]
    Nokia traded way too low with fear of bankruptcy driving the price below $2.00. The current rally is bringing the price back to levels that reflect break-up value. However, potential success with WP8 is beginning to enter the equation. If WP8 sales gain traction over the coming months, the stock will continue to trend higher, given that everyone that wanted to sell, likely has done so.
    Aug 24, 2012. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Rush To Sell Stocks At These Levels [View article]
    Everything looks fine as long as growth in profits continue. However, a slow down in economic growth is occurring globally. Revenues and profits are therefore vulnerable and changes to the growth forecast are dependent on political decisions, not exactly comforting.

    I read some very interesting work on secular bear and bull markets based on long term valuation measurements (P/Es and P/Bs). The secular trends tend to last seventeen years with cyclical bull and bear moves in that time frame. Currently, a secular bear market is still in force and the potential for a cyclical bear is growing heading into next year (the current cyclical bull is over three years old and long in the tooth as compared to all other cyclical bulls)

    The good news is that a secular bull market will likely come again in the next few years (net inflows into equities will be one major catalyst), but we may see one more cyclical bear before the all clear signal is made. I hope I am wrong, but hope isn't a investment discipline to be used.

    We may see new highs soon in this market, but it makes sense to be cautious at these levels, especially given the light volumes and the margin debt mentioned in this article, since a turn in sentiment could result in a sharp reversal.
    Aug 21, 2012. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment