Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View geodan85's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Blow to government as judge recommends dismissal of case against BofA [View news story]
    This incompetent anti- business administration will never stop treating business as cash cows to be squeezed for advancement of their re-distribution agenda. However, maybe just maybe, the shakedown attempts in the courts will fail or be delayed until this administration fades into history as one of America's worst ever assembled.
    Mar 28 07:44 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Recover Or Be Bought? [View article]
    Below is my take on Nokia, I responded to an article on Seeking Alpha last week which discussed the recent MSFT announcement (and the lack of mentioning Nokia prominently during the presentation other than using Nokia Maps and pureview/ both indicating cooperation) on their tablet and rumor they may make their own WP8.

    If MSFT is considering buying NOK, I doubt they would be issuing statements that would help drive up the price. If they are in current negotiations to buy NOK they would be restricted in what they can say publicly.

    MSFT buying NOK would be a classic buy vs build decision for entry onto a global platform giving them critical mass immediately to compete with AAPL and Samsung. MFST clearly has staying power and brand recognition, a new Microsoft/Nokia brand in mobile phones would be a strong competitor.

    If MSFT bid $5.0 per share for NOK (~$18.5bil) they get ~$13.0bil in cash/liquid investments, assume ~$6.25bil debt (which they service and call as soon as possible to retire or refinance at their credit rating) and the patent portfolio's cash flow of ~$625mil per year. Therefore, the bid will cost MSFT ~$5.5bil cash net (actually less if you consider the $1.0bil they are paying NOK under the current partnership and patent portfolio income which could be viewed, in essence, as financing the acquisition), less than 10% of their cash position and probabaly be further reduced if they sold patents they didn’t view as necessary or desirable.

    NOK's restructuring to stop the cash burn only makes the company more attractive to MSFT, although the price they would need to pay will rise once the cash burn is halted.

    The recent announcement that they will produce their own tablet shows they will be more involved wth hardware production, therefore how can they not be looking at this as an alternative?
    Jun 25 11:17 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited Is Not Worth The Risk [View article]
    Don't bet against John Frederiksen who is the power behind Seadrill as well as a few other companies. Invest with him and you won't be disappointed.
    Feb 24 08:51 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Future Depends On This [View article]
    The U.S. needs a healthy financial/banking sector for sustained economic recovery. The banks are under pressure from regulators to increase reserves/reduce risk assets. Until this changes recovery and growth will be elusive.

    BAC made two aquisitions in the crisis one good, Merrill Lynch (provided bulk of BAC's cash earnings in 2010 and 2011) and one very bad, Countrywide. BAC most likely should have put Countrywide in Bankruptcy two years ago, if they could legally without impacting their other businesses (this has been debated). Also, it is questionable if the current government would have allowed this, since they effectively control the big banks through regulation and the Fed/Treasury cartel.

    A change of leadership this fall in the U.S. is needed for a variety of reasons, but in particular for the financial sector and the health of the economy. If this occurs, the banks will do well and BAC will be in double digits next year.
    Jul 20 10:49 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poor cash flow trends for Nokia's (NOK -0.7%) phone business are being masked by the strong performance of a resurgent Nokia Siemens, argues BofA/Merrill, which reiterates an Underperform. Should a spinoff, sale, or IPO of NSN happen following the pending expiration of Nokia and Siemens' JV agreement (as many expect), the firm thinks Nokia's handset cash flow challenges will become more apparent. [View news story]
    I can't remember when Merrill had an analyst that has made a right call on Nokia in decades. I pay no attention to their analysis on this stock.
    Mar 21 11:43 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Start Attacking Nokia Again [View article]
    Most sell side analysts are not very good stock pickers and certainly not traders (their primary focus is to help pitch investment banking deals/services). Also, to support your observation that bankrupcty is off the table, Nokia's bonds are now trading in the $90s up from the $70s six months ago.

    Nokia is consolidating the recent move in a trading band of ~$3.50-$3.90. I would be surprised if the stock trades below $3.00 (maybe a major market selloff would get it there) given that sales of the Lumia WP8 phones are going well and more carriers are adding these phones. I wouldn't be surprised if the price gets a $4.00 handle before yearend and back over the $5.00 level next year when sales data likely confirms what many find hard to believe, that the WP8 phones will be a growing part of the smartphone mix going forward.
    Dec 11 04:57 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Again, Nokia Gets Downgraded By Goldman Sachs [View article]
    This analyst sounds like he is a valuable indicator. I traded NOK for a major investment bank over ten years ago (during the tech/telco bubble in the late 90's / those were the days) and we had an analyst covering Nokia we nicknamed "wrong way". Every time he changed his rating, it presented an opportunity on that day to do the opposite of the recommendation (short the buy / buy the sell). Within one day (as well as the medium term trend), NOK would reverse and the trades could be closed out very profitability. Eventually the analyst was gone (blew-up retail way too much), but his ability as a contrary indicator was remarkable.

    Most securities analysts are not very good stock pickers and really are tools of the investment banking/trading operations. Some things never change despite what is reported publicly.
    Mar 14 02:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Recover Or Be Bought? [View article]
    MSFT doesn't benefit by NOK going under. NOK's production of WP8 is critical for MSFT to achieve global distribution and a manufacturing platform. I have read comments from executives at other mobile phone manufacturers that they are all watching NOK as the main supplier of WP8 and that the success, or lack of, will help determine their commitment to producing WP8. Also, MSFT waiting for NOK to fail after committing to WP sends the wrong message to other potential WP manufacturers about aligning with MSFT.
    Jun 25 11:50 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Lumia Ad: Outrageous But Brilliant At The Same Time [View article]
    It is about time Microsoft takes the gloves off and starts aggressive advertising for WP8/Lumia. An aggressive ad campaign should indicate any supply issues regarding Lumia are now gone.

    I will point out that I would have not seen the ad yet, but it was shown to me by my teenage son on YouTube. This is also an excellent development for Lumia phones since it indicates the younger market is being made aware of this phone and could help win converts in that demographic segment.
    May 1 10:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Nokia Really Need To Sell 12 Million Lumias To Break Even? [View article]
    Sounds like the Barclay's analyst is a good contrary indicator. Ironically, analysts like this provide a service, although not in the way they would think.
    Jan 16 01:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Is The Lumia 920 Selling Well, Or Encountering Supply Issues? [View article]
    I went into a new Microsoft store over the weekend. Very good crowds and I asked a rep if they had the Nokia 920 lumia in stock and was told they did. Also, he mentioned three people bought the 920 earlier and had switched form their IPhones.

    I believe this phone is selling well and will continue to gain traction and sales will increase. The amount of advertising for WP8 by AT&T, T Mobile, Verizon, HTC, Nokia is huge (the advertising on the lumia 900 last spring was almost non-existent) and on multiple cable channels as well as the networks' primetime broadcasts of the NFL and other major sports broadcasts.

    The marketing behind WP8 will help increase market share in smartphones for the Windows operating system, I don't see how this can't help Nokia regain their footing in this growing segment of the total mobile phone market.
    Dec 4 03:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report Highlights Impact Of Coal Plant Retirements On Coal Producers [View article]
    I would say that the impact of less coal demand in the U.S. is being discounted in the current share prices. In another report, it has been estimated much of the switching by utlilites has already occurred and the natgas/coal price differentials have come back in line. Also, what happens when new natgas plants by utilities required large rate increases? Or increased domestic demand for natgas and exports raise natgas prices? I believe that coal will look attractive again if it offers lower rates. Finally, a change of government in the U.S. this November (likely IMHO) will be bullish for coal and energy companies in general. Also, BTU's Port of Seattle expansion (currently shelved by company) should proceed as exports to the rest of the world where the EPA doesn't exist will continue since coal is still viewed as an abundant reliable cheap input for power generation. Granted, there are no real catalysts for the sector in the short term, but BTU in the mid $20s seems like a decent short and long term buy despite all the bearish sentiment.
    Jun 7 02:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia 900 Ain't Enough To Save Nokia [View article]
    As you said, Nokia sold about 83mil phones and that is during the transition to windows smart phones, which are still alot of sales. Also, there are articles saying Verizon is considering adding Nokia windows phones as the major carriers want the MSFT windows eco-system as a competitior to IOS and Droid. The bearishness on Nokia is extreme and the turnaround will take time, but I believe they will be successful since they have the right partners and the overall market for mobile phones continues to grow.
    May 18 03:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Congratulations - A Nokia Bankruptcy Is Baked Into The Price Already [View article]
    Very good article and I agree NOK will likely survive and there is value in this stock and company. The current stock prices just don't make sense given the transition to the windows phone was going to cause short term pain and was somewhat anticipated, although it seems all news flow that is negative is what the focus is on by media (talking heads on TV) and traders (likely short sellers).
    May 17 11:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FHFA demands $6B from BofA over mortgage bonds [View news story]
    This is classic "no good deed goes unpunished". The banks in question (JPM BAC as the two largest) made quick decisions (with government prodding) to buy these troubled failing banks to help stop the growing panic in financial markets.

    Why is DOJ doing this? I believe this administration is anti-business and their true colors are now showing since they no longer face re-election and will not need the funds usually obtained form business. These lawsuits/settlements they believe plays (likely correct) well to the their base of very left liberals and anyone new to entitlements this clueless administration hands out.

    Sadly, they miss the larger issue, which is a healthy financial sector lending and growing (not focused on building reserves for lawsuits/write offs etc..) will help generate more tax revenue in the economy on a sustainable basis rather then these onetime shakedowns could ever achieve.

    Oct 21 09:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment