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geodan85

geodan85
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  • Blow to government as judge recommends dismissal of case against BofA [View news story]
    This incompetent anti- business administration will never stop treating business as cash cows to be squeezed for advancement of their re-distribution agenda. However, maybe just maybe, the shakedown attempts in the courts will fail or be delayed until this administration fades into history as one of America's worst ever assembled.
    Mar 28, 2014. 07:44 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Corporation CEO Says Coal Is Still On Top, But Is It? [View article]
    All your points essentially are political and represent the liberal/left/environme... view. That's fine, but when investing economics matter as well. Coal is a cheap abundant source of energy with the United States having some of the largest reserves in the world. This is an asset that will be used despite the current administration's disregard (and attack) for anything fossil fuel related that would help the U.S. in trade and/or competitive advantages for industries based on the North American continent.

    Presidents and their appointees change, thankfully, and when the current harmful crew (harmful to our economy, international standing, rule of law to name a few, but not all) leaves, coal will recover and Peabody's stock will be higher.
    Aug 20, 2014. 07:41 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • White House mulls massive reduction in power emissions [View news story]
    I really believe this White House does whatever it wants and legality of any action be damned, negative press is no worry since most of the media refuses to report on their abuses. It all stems from an arrogant belief of "we know better", which is so far from the truth.

    If this latest absurdity is ever realized it will only succeed in raising utility bills and furthering structural unemployment by reducing jobs in the mining as well as oil and gas industries. 2016 can't come soon enough to rid this country of the most incompetent and clueless administration we have ever been forced to endure.
    May 16, 2014. 08:57 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Recover Or Be Bought? [View article]
    Below is my take on Nokia, I responded to an article on Seeking Alpha last week which discussed the recent MSFT announcement (and the lack of mentioning Nokia prominently during the presentation other than using Nokia Maps and pureview/ both indicating cooperation) on their tablet and rumor they may make their own WP8.

    If MSFT is considering buying NOK, I doubt they would be issuing statements that would help drive up the price. If they are in current negotiations to buy NOK they would be restricted in what they can say publicly.

    MSFT buying NOK would be a classic buy vs build decision for entry onto a global platform giving them critical mass immediately to compete with AAPL and Samsung. MFST clearly has staying power and brand recognition, a new Microsoft/Nokia brand in mobile phones would be a strong competitor.

    If MSFT bid $5.0 per share for NOK (~$18.5bil) they get ~$13.0bil in cash/liquid investments, assume ~$6.25bil debt (which they service and call as soon as possible to retire or refinance at their credit rating) and the patent portfolio's cash flow of ~$625mil per year. Therefore, the bid will cost MSFT ~$5.5bil cash net (actually less if you consider the $1.0bil they are paying NOK under the current partnership and patent portfolio income which could be viewed, in essence, as financing the acquisition), less than 10% of their cash position and probabaly be further reduced if they sold patents they didn’t view as necessary or desirable.

    NOK's restructuring to stop the cash burn only makes the company more attractive to MSFT, although the price they would need to pay will rise once the cash burn is halted.

    The recent announcement that they will produce their own tablet shows they will be more involved wth hardware production, therefore how can they not be looking at this as an alternative?
    Jun 25, 2012. 11:17 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited Is Not Worth The Risk [View article]
    Don't bet against John Frederiksen who is the power behind Seadrill as well as a few other companies. Invest with him and you won't be disappointed.

    http://bit.ly/Xv6yWS
    Feb 24, 2013. 08:51 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Future Depends On This [View article]
    The U.S. needs a healthy financial/banking sector for sustained economic recovery. The banks are under pressure from regulators to increase reserves/reduce risk assets. Until this changes recovery and growth will be elusive.

    BAC made two aquisitions in the crisis one good, Merrill Lynch (provided bulk of BAC's cash earnings in 2010 and 2011) and one very bad, Countrywide. BAC most likely should have put Countrywide in Bankruptcy two years ago, if they could legally without impacting their other businesses (this has been debated). Also, it is questionable if the current government would have allowed this, since they effectively control the big banks through regulation and the Fed/Treasury cartel.

    A change of leadership this fall in the U.S. is needed for a variety of reasons, but in particular for the financial sector and the health of the economy. If this occurs, the banks will do well and BAC will be in double digits next year.
    Jul 20, 2012. 10:49 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government reportedly wants more than $13B from BofA over mortgages [View news story]
    Eric Holder should be in jail. He is the worst AG in recent history. Instead of enforcing laws, he believes he is above the law and his primary job is to protect the other incompetent office holder, Obama, who also believes he is above the law and does what he wants by executive orders. Both of these losers can't leave office fast enough. I only hope there is justice in the world and these two are disgraced when they both no longer enjoy executive privilege.
    Apr 24, 2014. 05:19 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poor cash flow trends for Nokia's (NOK -0.7%) phone business are being masked by the strong performance of a resurgent Nokia Siemens, argues BofA/Merrill, which reiterates an Underperform. Should a spinoff, sale, or IPO of NSN happen following the pending expiration of Nokia and Siemens' JV agreement (as many expect), the firm thinks Nokia's handset cash flow challenges will become more apparent. [View news story]
    I can't remember when Merrill had an analyst that has made a right call on Nokia in decades. I pay no attention to their analysis on this stock.
    Mar 21, 2013. 11:43 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Start Attacking Nokia Again [View article]
    Most sell side analysts are not very good stock pickers and certainly not traders (their primary focus is to help pitch investment banking deals/services). Also, to support your observation that bankrupcty is off the table, Nokia's bonds are now trading in the $90s up from the $70s six months ago.

    Nokia is consolidating the recent move in a trading band of ~$3.50-$3.90. I would be surprised if the stock trades below $3.00 (maybe a major market selloff would get it there) given that sales of the Lumia WP8 phones are going well and more carriers are adding these phones. I wouldn't be surprised if the price gets a $4.00 handle before yearend and back over the $5.00 level next year when sales data likely confirms what many find hard to believe, that the WP8 phones will be a growing part of the smartphone mix going forward.
    Dec 11, 2012. 04:57 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Again, Nokia Gets Downgraded By Goldman Sachs [View article]
    This analyst sounds like he is a valuable indicator. I traded NOK for a major investment bank over ten years ago (during the tech/telco bubble in the late 90's / those were the days) and we had an analyst covering Nokia we nicknamed "wrong way". Every time he changed his rating, it presented an opportunity on that day to do the opposite of the recommendation (short the buy / buy the sell). Within one day (as well as the medium term trend), NOK would reverse and the trades could be closed out very profitability. Eventually the analyst was gone (blew-up retail way too much), but his ability as a contrary indicator was remarkable.

    Most securities analysts are not very good stock pickers and really are tools of the investment banking/trading operations. Some things never change despite what is reported publicly.
    Mar 14, 2013. 02:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Crowd Is Dead Wrong [View article]
    Nice article, but most of what you describe is dependent on economic growth, which seems to be slowing. Bank of America's share had been in a obvious up trend with good momentum going into CCAR. That is over and the suspending the dividend increase and buy back due to the accounting error clearly hurt the stock. Taking $25 to $30 billion off in market cap after disclosing the error seems excessive, but likely justified if they don't reinstate the dividend increase after a resubmitting and hopefully approval of their capital plan to the Fed.

    I have said in previous posts on BAC that dividends are very important for financial stocks since the industry's raw product is money and the management of risk and returns on that product. If a bank can't pay a dividend to their investor/owners, then the investor/owners will eventually entrust their capital to other banks who are better at managing risk and return.

    It seems BAC has digested the selling, as you stated, but it also starting to act like dead money and will drift with overall market sentiment. Long term, I believe the stock will eventually be higher as the bank continues to become more utility like with a focus on basic banking and wealth management (essentially their stated strategy). However, the utility like rating implies their need to pay respectable dividends and until they do, I don't expect any resumption of the uptrend.

    Finally, is Cramer really well respected? I guess it depends on who you ask, but he is wrong on so many calls that many people I know have tuned him out long ago.
    May 15, 2014. 08:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Recover Or Be Bought? [View article]
    MSFT doesn't benefit by NOK going under. NOK's production of WP8 is critical for MSFT to achieve global distribution and a manufacturing platform. I have read comments from executives at other mobile phone manufacturers that they are all watching NOK as the main supplier of WP8 and that the success, or lack of, will help determine their commitment to producing WP8. Also, MSFT waiting for NOK to fail after committing to WP sends the wrong message to other potential WP manufacturers about aligning with MSFT.
    Jun 25, 2012. 11:50 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Lumia Ad: Outrageous But Brilliant At The Same Time [View article]
    It is about time Microsoft takes the gloves off and starts aggressive advertising for WP8/Lumia. An aggressive ad campaign should indicate any supply issues regarding Lumia are now gone.

    I will point out that I would have not seen the ad yet, but it was shown to me by my teenage son on YouTube. This is also an excellent development for Lumia phones since it indicates the younger market is being made aware of this phone and could help win converts in that demographic segment.
    May 1, 2013. 10:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Nokia Really Need To Sell 12 Million Lumias To Break Even? [View article]
    Sounds like the Barclay's analyst is a good contrary indicator. Ironically, analysts like this provide a service, although not in the way they would think.
    Jan 16, 2013. 01:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Is The Lumia 920 Selling Well, Or Encountering Supply Issues? [View article]
    I went into a new Microsoft store over the weekend. Very good crowds and I asked a rep if they had the Nokia 920 lumia in stock and was told they did. Also, he mentioned three people bought the 920 earlier and had switched form their IPhones.

    I believe this phone is selling well and will continue to gain traction and sales will increase. The amount of advertising for WP8 by AT&T, T Mobile, Verizon, HTC, Nokia is huge (the advertising on the lumia 900 last spring was almost non-existent) and on multiple cable channels as well as the networks' primetime broadcasts of the NFL and other major sports broadcasts.

    The marketing behind WP8 will help increase market share in smartphones for the Windows operating system, I don't see how this can't help Nokia regain their footing in this growing segment of the total mobile phone market.
    Dec 4, 2012. 03:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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