Nokia: A Smart Play For Value Investors [View article]
Apple will fall. Why would anyone pay twice the price to achieve the same utility. Nokia is a master of economies of scale, which allows it to bring low cost solutions to a grand scale. American Bias's are strong, Wall Street is strongly biased and has no idea that Nokia is still dominant in many continents, that Blackberry has every government contract on the planet, that the Blackberry Playbook is a better tablet then the Ipad for the $. It was on sale for $200, so many were being sold on Amazon that the price went up. Now that is economics in real time. Again, the playbook allows someone to achieve the same utility as an Ipad, at 1/3rd the cost. It has dual-core processor, 1gig RAM, 1080 resolution, dual hi-def camera's 5meg rear facing, 3megi-pixel front for video conferencing, skype, facetime, whatever you want to call it. Live meeting, web-ex were the first to do on-line meetings Apple users call it face time. In reality its a video call. So I will go buy my playbook and save $400. Invest that $400 and see it become $2000 for retirement. So again, who are the real bunch lacking brains, Iphone/Ipad owners!
Research In Motion (RIMM -9.3%), hammered thanks to bearish comments from Doug Kass and Gene Munster, is also being sued for patent infringement by chipmaker NXP (NXPI). NXP alleges RIM's phones and tablets infringe patents related to design and data transmission, and is seeking royalties and triple damages. An IP consultant speculates RIM might try to settle quickly to keep the suit from complicating sale talks. [View news story]
Wow, Nokia (Microsoft) HP, Nokia, RIMM, LG, Sony, Dell etc all casualities of Apple's dominance in the smart phone industry. What is he smoking? Sorry, playbook or Kindle for $200 is by far a way better choice. Most people use tablets for social networks, music, video and reading. Why would anyone with half a brain pay 3x the amount to achieve the same utility? (happiness for those who don't understand economics). Sooner or later people will get it. Hum, I can do everything I am doing and save $400 a year? Wow, maybe I wont need food stamps!
Thursday's Earnings (3/29/12) Will Be Huge For RIM [View article]
No Debt 10.2 Billion book value. Total assets are just over $14billion of which only 2.4billion is intangible (Patents) 7.4 Billion Market Cap Even after all the negative revisions, they are still expected to earn around $2.5 per share for 2013-2014, with revenues again starting to increase in 2015, and they are still on pace to earn over $4 EPS for 2012. So at $4 P/E 3.5 At $2.5 P/E 5.5 Price to Cash Flow 1/5 verse its peers ROE almost twice its peers
An increasing book value, decreasing market cap, cash flow per share at over $8, currently trading 30% below book value and has no liquidity or solvency risk as it is able to meet short term obligations and has no long-term debt. Financial Risk? Nope, no leverage. So we are left with Business Risk, specifically sales. RIMM is not going to lose its government customer base overnight and is still a favorite in many countries.
Nokia: The Market Is Missing The Point [View article]
Yes people do buy smartphones for the Camera. Facetime/Skype? I (current android user) would buy the new 47 megapixel Nokia phone in a heartbeat. One word: Social Media. You must be getting too old as you are not in touch with Generation x, y and z. Everyone I know is taking pictures, streaming video and sharing via their mobile device. My daughter (4 years old) went skiing, and my mom took pictures with her phone to share with the family in real time... Problem is? No phones can take a real picture! Cant blow them up! Quality is horrible and she has a I Phone.. When I was skiing at Jay Peak in 47 inches last weekend, I would of loved to have that phone. Who needs 1000 versions of the same game/app. I want a fully integrated camera so I can share images of high quality, stream video and capture life in the moment. Currently, no phone addresses this, at least until now! Go NOKIA..
While it is true that the book value of their ships is probably inflated thanks to the current market rate of a dry bulk vessel, but Eagle's ships are all under 5 years old and represent the latest class of ship. Even if we were to discount the value of the vessel by 25%, it does not justify a 90% discount to book value. The value of each ship is trading as though they will be scrapped and sold off for the metal.
What happens when BDI bounces higher? All these negative revisions will be revised higher. Don't believe it will? Many thought Bank of America was going to zero, I bought 10k shares when it was at $5. it did not go to zero. Finance evaluates cash flow and based upon cash flow, their is ample liquidity to ride this out!
This all may be true, but Egle while reporting an accounting loss is still producing positive cash flow. It is kind of difficult to go bankrupt when you have millions in free cash. Regarding their change in cash position, well that has everything to do with them taking on another ship. They are not expecting any new ships and with current rates are able to cover all cash expenses. So bankruptcy is just a word those who short the stock will use to scare you!
Bank Of America: Profit With Little Risk [View article]
Tangible book value is roughly $14 a share, but book value is around $20. Is the Merril Lynch brand and discounting of its future earnings worthless? The intangibles such as the Merril brand, easily the most recognized broker/dealer in the industry easily warrant a premium to Tangible Book. While the Countrywide brand is worthless and most likely a drag on the book value, it is safe to assume that the actual book value is somewhere between tangible and book value, so for the sake of argument lets say $17. Bank of America will increase both Tangible book value through future earnings. Based upon consensus earnings for 2012 which have been revised downward by 25% over the past 3 months, 40% the past 6months, BofA will earn over 10billion which translates into a P/E just over 5. Do these estimates take into account the recent 2billion in gains from the sale of China Constuction Bank? Do they take into account BofA buying back 3billion in preferred shares which will result in a huge gain? I dount it! Just like last quarter where 6billion in Income was realized, we will be in for another beat!While this may be considered an accounting trick, the fact is BofA will realize a redution in interest expense, realized gains as their preferreds are trading at a huge discount and finally, a jump in their capital ratios. Tangible Book Value is currently at about 140bil, by year end that will increase to 150bil at a minimum! Merril Lynch alone is worth $7 a share if it were to IPO! and right now BofA is trading as if it were bankrupt! We will see the mid-teens again next year and by 2014 they will be earnings $2 a share earning 20bil a year.. As this become fact, we will see BofA break into the 20's. a potential 400% return in 2plus years! BofA capital ratios are 3x's the levels from 5 years ago. So bankruptcy is not going to occur. If they are desperate for $, IPO Merril and get 50billion..This train will start moving and when it does, it will break through this wall of worry. If Berkowitz is right and in 5 years we see $4-5 per share earnings, here we come $30's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nokia: A Smart Play For Value Investors [View article]
Research In Motion (RIMM -9.3%), hammered thanks to bearish comments from Doug Kass and Gene Munster, is also being sued for patent infringement by chipmaker NXP (NXPI). NXP alleges RIM's phones and tablets infringe patents related to design and data transmission, and is seeking royalties and triple damages. An IP consultant speculates RIM might try to settle quickly to keep the suit from complicating sale talks. [View news story]
Thursday's Earnings (3/29/12) Will Be Huge For RIM [View article]
10.2 Billion book value. Total assets are just over $14billion of which only 2.4billion is intangible (Patents)
7.4 Billion Market Cap
Even after all the negative revisions, they are still expected to earn around $2.5 per share for 2013-2014, with revenues again starting to increase in 2015, and they are still on pace to earn over $4 EPS for 2012.
So at $4 P/E 3.5
At $2.5 P/E 5.5
Price to Cash Flow 1/5 verse its peers
ROE almost twice its peers
An increasing book value, decreasing market cap, cash flow per share at over $8, currently trading 30% below book value and has no liquidity or solvency risk as it is able to meet short term obligations and has no long-term debt. Financial Risk? Nope, no leverage. So we are left with Business Risk, specifically sales. RIMM is not going to lose its government customer base overnight and is still a favorite in many countries.
Long at $14
Nokia: The Market Is Missing The Point [View article]
One word: Social Media. You must be getting too old as you are not in touch with Generation x, y and z. Everyone I know is taking pictures, streaming video and sharing via their mobile device. My daughter (4 years old) went skiing, and my mom took pictures with her phone to share with the family in real time... Problem is? No phones can take a real picture! Cant blow them up! Quality is horrible and she has a I Phone.. When I was skiing at Jay Peak in 47 inches last weekend, I would of loved to have that phone. Who needs 1000 versions of the same game/app. I want a fully integrated camera so I can share images of high quality, stream video and capture life in the moment. Currently, no phone addresses this, at least until now! Go NOKIA..
Rough Seas Ahead For Shipping [View article]
What happens when BDI bounces higher? All these negative revisions will be revised higher. Don't believe it will? Many thought Bank of America was going to zero, I bought 10k shares when it was at $5. it did not go to zero. Finance evaluates cash flow and based upon cash flow, their is ample liquidity to ride this out!
Rough Seas Ahead For Shipping [View article]
Bank Of America: Profit With Little Risk [View article]
Is the Merril Lynch brand and discounting of its future earnings worthless? The intangibles such as the Merril brand, easily the most recognized broker/dealer in the industry easily warrant a premium to Tangible Book. While the Countrywide brand is worthless and most likely a drag on the book value, it is safe to assume that the actual book value is somewhere between tangible and book value, so for the sake of argument lets say $17. Bank of America will increase both Tangible book value through future earnings. Based upon consensus earnings for 2012 which have been revised downward by 25% over the past 3 months, 40% the past 6months, BofA will earn over 10billion which translates into a P/E just over 5. Do these estimates take into account the recent 2billion in gains from the sale of China Constuction Bank? Do they take into account BofA buying back 3billion in preferred shares which will result in a huge gain? I dount it! Just like last quarter where 6billion in Income was realized, we will be in for another beat!While this may be considered an accounting trick, the fact is BofA will realize a redution in interest expense, realized gains as their preferreds are trading at a huge discount and finally, a jump in their capital ratios. Tangible Book Value is currently at about 140bil, by year end that will increase to 150bil at a minimum! Merril Lynch alone is worth $7 a share if it were to IPO! and right now BofA is trading as if it were bankrupt! We will see the mid-teens again next year and by 2014 they will be earnings $2 a share earning 20bil a year.. As this become fact, we will see BofA break into the 20's. a potential 400% return in 2plus years! BofA capital ratios are 3x's the levels from 5 years ago. So bankruptcy is not going to occur. If they are desperate for $, IPO Merril and get 50billion..This train will start moving and when it does, it will break through this wall of worry. If Berkowitz is right and in 5 years we see $4-5 per share earnings, here we come $30's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!