Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Petrobras plunges on fuel pricing confusion  [View news story]
    Go long, Price to cash flow (4 year average) is at 3.1. Even with the current losses in the refining business, PBR is still generating an average of 29 Bil in cash flow and is still quite profitable. With a P/E at 7, and if earnings begin to trend back to where they were just two years ago, P/E will be 4.5. Interesting that only the downgraded ratings are being highlighted in every article as MS raised price target from $19 to $20.5 as a result!
    Dec 2, 2013. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras cut to Sell from Buy at Credit Suisse after fuel price increase  [View news story]
    A market cap at 93 billion while producing an average annual cash flow of about 29 billion a year over the past 4 years and CS downgrades to a sell? I get the fact that government involvement has its negatives, but their are also positives like, Brazil will not allow PBR to ever go bankrupt, so that risk is non-existent. PBR also always has first dibs on oil fields=guarantees PBR access to best fields, allowing them to sell off assets that do not perform as well. A price to cash flow of 3.1 is pretty compelling. Giving that oil has gone down in price, the fixed rate for gas in Brazil cannot be that off when compared to market averages compared to what it ways a year ago. Brazil along with all BRIC have been in the dumps, all have the same underlying story, natural resources and commodity dependent. Energy/Materials have been in a bear market for 3 plus years and yesterdays losers are tomorrows winners. Sector investing will see a large influx after the new year just like we saw into financials in 2012!
    Dec 2, 2013. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Most compelling" Priceline boosted to Conviction Buy at Goldman  [View news story]
    Classic raise rating to drive price higher to lower rating a few weeks later giving price movement. However, those who pay for that info will sell before the announcement hits the wires and it will be too late for the poor retail investors who bought a $62 billion dollar company that has no barriers, no pricing power and has continually gone up while consumer confidence has dropped. Correct me if I am wrong, but if consumers are not confident, why would one expect them to go buy a plane ticket?
    Dec 2, 2013. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Is Breaking Out  [View article]
    Back to BofA, I am up 150%. Nov 2011-Dec I loaded up when everyone said to sell. I admit I was down 20k at that time as I was dollar cost averaging from $11 all the way down, but buying 10k at $5 really helped bring my cost basis down significantly. Thanks BofA! We should see $20 next year and into the $30's in 2015. I do not trust this market anymore, there is nothing of value and little growth left to choose from. We are due for a 10% correction as everything is up 100% this year except for Energy/Materials. Global cyclicals/hard assets are still in the dumps!
    Nov 26, 2013. 04:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Is Breaking Out  [View article]
    Priceline is worth 61 billion and they do not pay a dividend. No moat, A 40 P/E, 10 P/S, a declining growth rate and oustanding share count that is well in excess of 100%. Any stock can go up when the stock is fixed! I can borrow 8.5 million or about 16% of the outstanding shares of Priceline at Fidelity. Institutions and insiders own 98% of PCLN. Fidelity owns 2.5 mil, so those other 6 million are from margined accounts. 6 million is 12%, owned by retail investors just at Fidelity. 98% institutions + the 12% retail at Fidelity = 110% Now lets add all of the other retail investors and see what % of outstanding shares are being traded, I'd bet it is over 150%!
    Nov 26, 2013. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Richmond Fed survey flies by estimates  [View news story]
    Virginia is the wealthist place in the country now as all of our $ goes to the DC megametropolous. I'm not surprised as the government just borrowed another half trillion in the past 2 months! 500bill/125 Mil tax payers = $4,000 per taxpayer borrowed and blown in 2 1/2 months since the government shut down. My income would need to go up $20,000 for the government to recoup just what was borrowed since the shut-down, yet consumer confidence showed that no one expects any appreciation in their income. Confidence is down, yet the market assumes everyone is going to go out and buy a plane ticket as priceline skyrocketed again off this report.The institutions/insiders that own Priceline are all Million/Billionaires (thanks to QE infinity). Burst the bubble before its too late and investigate market manipulation! Priceline is 98% owned by institutions, yet I can borrow 16% of the outstanding shares at Fidelity to sell short. I know Fidelity is not lending shares owned within their funds, so a large chunk of those shares have to be from retail accounts because Fidelity only owns 2.5 mil shares. Which means outstanding shares are well above 100% just factoring in retail accounts at Fidelity. What about all of the other retail investors, are you telling me only people at Fidelity own Priceline? Must be the case if they have 16% available to short. Fraud!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
    Nov 26, 2013. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Most compelling" Priceline boosted to Conviction Buy at Goldman  [View news story]
    Let's just build a bigger bubble so we can scam retail investors when we sell. Anyone notice that Priceline is selling shares like hot cakes?
    Nov 20, 2013. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Expectations Of EPS Growth Rate Embedded In Priceline's Stock Price Appear High  [View article]
    Priceline will be one of the greatest shorts of a lifetime. Like buying Netflix at $350 and watching it fall all the way back to $60. Short PCLN@!
    Nov 19, 2013. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline roundup: New CEO, bookings strong, guidance below estimates  [View news story]
    Vale beats on revenue, earnings, guidance and lowers cash costs per ton of iron ore, therebye increasing gross margins and the stocks plummets 5%. Priceline beats, but foreward guidance is down, margins being pressured and earnings will decline next quarter and the stock jumps after hours.. Twitter is worth 24billion, but shares outstanding only represent 14% of the company, so were really at 171 Billion for Twitter and they do not earn a penny in profit. Priceline worth 55 Bil, Facebook @115Bil. Priceline is twice as much as HP. Facebook is worth as much as Intel, but the revenue model for these companies is suspect. If Twitter paste adds on its app, it will diminish the capacity of the service and fewer people will use it. While Facebook has the greatest MOAT, it is now losing customers due to privacy and revelations regarding NSA access to Facebook datacenters. I for one, am reaching a point where I may turn off my Facebook account. It is causing a loss of privacy, a loss of productivity and a loss of interpersonal skills for generations of users. Definitely short twitter and short Priceline!
    Nov 8, 2013. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Beat Wall Street Analyst Expectations?  [View article]
    No economic most, a commodity and so far extended no matter what they earn, forward guidance will disappoint and shares will crash. Worth more than CAT, which has 10x the revenue, 5x the profit and a huge moat, bubble!!!!!
    Nov 7, 2013. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pricey market can get pricier  [View news story]
    It is really sad when we compare the markets to heroin, but the comparison is 100% correct. The government is getting anyone and everyone addicted to the drip and the FED enabling excessive spending by running the printing press's to keep rates at zero. Hey, its other peoples $!. In the end, the withdrawal symptons will be more painful than we've ever experienced. People have become complacent, bulls control the headlines, optimism has hit levels I have not seen since June 2007 and valuation of momentum stocks are reaching 1999 levels in terms of valuations. The FED can't stop the drip, or the government will seize as rates will skyrocket along with the interest payments to service the debt. The only way to stop this is via intervention. This is beginning to occur as China and many other nations have slowed, stopped or starting selling their treasury holdings. Who is going to step in and buy the debt that China has been financing? No one! One day, the Treasury is going to have an auction and no one will be present. And then the withdrawal will kick in, the shakes, cold sweats and thoughts of losing it all.. Panic will follow and blood will spill onto the streets......
    Oct 24, 2013. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix turns negative, S&P cuts shares to Sell  [View news story]
    This bull is about to ride off a cliff. A:) No bears are left, B:) momentum stocks like Netflix and PCLN have left the atmosphere and taking off towards Mars. Priceline is worth 55Billion. Give me a break, does anyone even use priceline? I know people who use Kayak, but I stopped using Expedia years ago and have since go directly to carrier web-sites as it is cheaper. Why pay a fee to book travel? When their is "blood in the streets" is the best time to buy and when everyone says to buy, is the best time to sell. Every analyst in the world is upgrading stocks to buy that are already priced at levels never seen before. Market rally's on poor jobs data and record breaking low labor force participation rate. Why? Because the FED will keep printing? Who is going to buy it? The Chinese are down and the latest data is proving that. What American is willing to loan the US government $ for 5 years at a 1% interest rate? I would not loan the government $ at a 5% interest rate, they'll just blow it like they did with the 320 million for Obamacare. It was supposed to cost 80 Bil, is now 400% above budget and it will cost another 300 Mil to fix. Imagine if it cost seeking alpha, Facebook, Linkedin, Twitter the same amount to start a web-site? There would not exist!
    Oct 22, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Overbought  [View article]
    Law of diminishing returns. More $ the FED pumps, the greater the cash holdings grow within the balance sheet for those with the cash. Banks, companies, individuals with the capital, aka Buffett's of the world, and less will be deployed as why would google pay a G per share, when it can sit on the cash and buy their shares when it becomes undervalued. Why would banks flood the market with fixed rates when they know rates will rise and they can borrow now for nothing, hold for a year and then lend at a much higher rate. The game is over! Its been played and everyone, especially the Chinese, have seen enough..
    Oct 20, 2013. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Overbought  [View article]
    No bears, only bulls. Sounds like 2007 all over again to me..
    Oct 18, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tepper on taper: "No way"  [View news story]
    Buy the rumor, sell the news. Any debt deal does not address any of the issues, it just kicks the can down the road again.
    Oct 15, 2013. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment