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sreimer77

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  • Research In Motion (RIMM -5.8%) is cooling off today, thanks partly to Morgan Stanley's critical note. Kantar Comtech estimates RIM's U.S. smartphone share fell to a mere 1.6% (down 690 bps Y/Y) in the 12 weeks ending Oct. 28, and its EU5 share fell to 5.3% (down 690 bps). The more that RIM's base in developed markets diminishes, the tougher it will be to rack up huge BlackBerry 10 sales, since RIM will have to "convert" more users from rival platforms rather than simply sell them on an upgrade. [View news story]
    Just like how those companies had to convert users. If a customer has seen the previewed device at lets say any one of the Blackberry event, through their sales rep or wholesaler, then they would know a pretty well reviewed, secure and top notch piece of hardware is coming out in 8 weeks.... Tomorrow they'll upgrade RIMM once this firms hedge fund clients have an opportunity to cover their shorts.
    Nov 27 01:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The PC industry could lose 50M-100M units in annual sales by 2015 thanks largely to the impact of mobile devices, argues Barclays in a depressing report. Barclays, which is cutting estimates for Dell (DELL) and H-P (HPQ), forecasts PC sales will fall another 4% next year to 338M, and total just 311.5M in 2015. On the other hand, it expects tablet sales to reach 182M next year and 300M in 2016. Longbow is also downbeat, claiming checks indicate notebook orders are being cancelled; ultrabook demand is soft, and Intel and AMD are cutting prices. [View news story]
    and that is called a computer!
    Nov 13 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Good hardware only goes so far when its app ecosystem is deficient: that's the common argument found in The Verge's reviews of Nokia's (NOK) flagship Lumia 920 and Google/Samsung's Nexus 10 tablet. The 920's display, design, and (with some qualifications) camera get high marks, and so do the 10's display (considered on par with the iPad), performance, and battery life. But with Windows Phone and (as far as tablets go) Android still badly trailing the competition in terms of app support, neither product gets a resounding endorsement. (WP8 review) (app efforts: I, II[View news story]
    agreed. Most companies have developed two versions of their web-sites, one for mobile and the other for PC. When using my Playbook, I always go to the traditional web-site as the Mobile lacks a lot of the content. However, Mobile versions still have superior content then an APP. CNBC app is good for looking at stock prices. The mobil version of their website has greater resources and access to articles. However, neither of these compare to http://www.cnbc.com.
    Nov 5 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculation about a Microsoft (MSFT) smartphone continues to rumble, with the WSJ reporting that the company is working with Asian component suppliers to test a design, although it's not certain that the device will go into mass production. In an interview earlier this week, Steve Ballmer declined to comment on the issue. [View news story]
    Rumors, Rumors, Rumors. Even if MSFT were to manufactur a phone, it would still be using Nokia products, Nokia MAP, location and commerce etc throughout the device. It would still be paying Nokia royalties for IP and would probably be involved in the design aspect. MSFT is paying Nokia a Billion a year to manufacture Windows based phones, why would they do this if they intended to do it themselves? Might as well just buy Nokia outright then.
    Nov 2 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 is now being tested by over 50 carriers, Research In Motion (RIMM +4.7%) CEO Thorsten Heins disclosed in an e-mailed statement. That puts RIM on track to launch BB10 devices in early Q1 - Jefferies claimed earlier this month the first devices won't arrive until March. Either way, the OS faces an uphill battle in light of Android and iOS' hegemony in developed markets, and it will get tougher if Windows Phone 8 fares well this holiday season. [View news story]
    Short Squeeze is in affect! Rimm continues to deliver positive stories verse the persistent negativity which makes for a great squeeze.
    Nov 1 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion (RIMM +2.6%) is counting on BlackBerry 10's multitasking features to help it succeed as a "third ecosystem." "What we’re trying to do is streamline [the multitasking] process, break down the silos that exist between a lot of those applications," says exec Jeff Gadway. Also central to RIM's strategy is its $10K guarantee for BB10 developers who generate at least $1K in sales - that gambit seems necessary in light of the huge lead Android and iOS will have in available apps. (more[View news story]
    My Android is a great micro-computer, but a crappy phone. When listening to music you cannot answer a call without the music stopping. Just one example of the current generation of phones inability to multi-task. I have two phones, a old school flip open LG and Droid Incredible. I prefer the old phone to talk to people as it allows me to continue using my smartphone for music and data. I also have a Playbook, which allows you to do many tasks at once with-out interruption of an existing applications. This is a huge differentiator as I would be able to go down to one device from two!
    Oct 12 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Dead Money Stocks Caught In The Hurt Locker: 2 Trades, 3 Traps [View article]
    Price to cash flow is 2.38, not 7.6. The reduction in guidance is largely driven by one time expenses surrounding lay offs, restructuring and other non cash expenses. With a P/Cash flow of 2.4, HP could literally buy back every outstanding share in 2 years as they do have a net cash balance in addition to this cash flow. Yes there is some good will on their balance sheet, but as someone else commented on another post, IBM has even more good will. Someone mentioned that they will reduce or axe their dividend, but even with earnings at 3.5$ a share, it's only a 15% pay out ratio. They could double it easily to provide a floor to their stock price(7% yield with <30% pay out is quite enticing). HP is diversified, operating many different segments with products focused on both the consumer, public and private sector including cash cows like printing, higher margin services like IT consulting and outsourcing, servers, switches, storage etc and finally PC's. PC's is the reason why HP and Dell are being destroyed, yet PC's aren't going anywhere. As one friend told me, when he travels for work his Ipad is mostly dead weight as he always uses his laptop and really does not have a choice as a tablet cannot compete with the capabilities of a laptop. Another friend who works for Dell keeps telling me about how well their unit is doing. While the division he works for provides storage solutions among other software solutions and is growing exponentially, it is the PC side that is destroying Dell. However it is these cash cows that have enabled both HP and Dell to broaden their product and service portfolios to further diversify revenues. Both are making lots of cash, both have raised dividends and promised to continue and both are valued at prices never seen before. Neither are going bankrupt. As a contrarian play, both offer tremendous upside giving the negativity and recent death spirals.
    Oct 10 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "[HP's] balance sheet is a mess, says Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu, who joined other analysts in downgrading the IT giant following its analyst day warning. Though H-P (HPQ -1.4%) officially has a book value of $16/share, Wu suggests it's actually -$2/share after backing out goodwill. Wu's sum-of-the-parts analysis of H-P produces a bull-case valuation of $15/share, but he thinks $10/share is more reasonable. Argus also downgraded H-P, and suggested its job cuts need to go beyond 29K. [View news story]
    They're gonna earn 8 Billion with 10 Billion in free cash flows. They can take themselves private in 3 years.
    Oct 8 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Microsoft (MSFT) smartphone rumor refuses to go away. Though a company exec denied the rumor in June and suggested Microsoft won't compete with Windows Phone partners such as Nokia (NOK), BGR reports a "trusted source" indicates Redmond is working on a high-end smartphone, with a launch expected in the coming months. A Chinese site recently claimed Microsoft's phone will be sold under the Surface brand, and be available in 1H13. [View news story]
    What B.S. Later we will find out that all Surface products are manufactured by Nokia anyway. Since when does MSFT manufacture anything? They may design it, but at the end of the day they will not manufacture. So the question is, who will? Obvious answer would be Nokia.
    Oct 2 12:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK +5.2%) has reached a deal with Oracle (ORCL) to have it mapping and location services integrated with Oracle's business apps and data. Similar deals could be on the way, as corporate apps become more consumer-oriented and migrate to mobile devices. Nokia's Location & Commerce unit posted 4% Y/Y revenue growth in Q2, even as the phone division saw a 26% drop. But it still makes up only 4% of sales. (other maps deals: I, II[View news story]
    It is funny how analysts keep upping Apple's price target, while reducing NOK and RIMM's. Apple price target on average is now over a $1000, or a 50% increase which would make worth about a Trillion in market cap. If it does reach these levels, you know analysts will be changing their tune as other providers eat away at IOS user base. While Apple will always have its fanatics that will buy Apple at premium pricing no matter what, but the rest of us look for value in our expenditures. I read an interesting article about Apple users. It was in the WSJ, Orbitz tracked users of MAC products and found out that they spend 30% more on hotels then PC users (a good representation of the fact that Apple installed customer base fall into the 1% category). In a another study focused on tablets and Smart phones, it was discovered that people who have Apple products, Iphones/Ipad, tend to outspend those who have Android and Blackberry devices. While I knew this, it is interesting in that this trend will not continue. There is not enough disposable income to support the continuance of the Apple premium outside of the 1%. Only the top 1% of the Worlds population can really justify the expense (90% of the US population falls in this category). Since we are a nation based upon consumption, it is very easy to see why people are willing to fork over double the $ for the same hardware. However, this trend will not continue as the World is not so naive. In the Middle East bargaining is still a tradition and people will walk away from a good if the price is not flexible. In India, 99% of the population does not earn enough $ on a monthly basis to purchase an Ipad. So how will Apple be able justify premium pricing while still maintaining sales growth? Early adopters will always pay a premium, but we are now past that phase and Apple is not delivering any new groundbreaking products. If anyone is, it is Nokia and RIMM that are truly bringing the new technology to the market with their upcoming releases.
    Oct 2 08:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Reemergence: Should Apple Be Worried? [View article]
    A sure way to profit is to do the exact opposite of the analysts mean rating for a peer group of stocks. BUY NOK/RIMM, short Apple is that trade now!
    Oct 1 09:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Reemergence: Should Apple Be Worried? [View article]
    I agree. A sound and fair argument. Just like RIMM, the analysts have went from too overly optimistic to overly bearish. In 2007 NOK was BUY BUY BUY along with RIMM. Now it is sell sell sell, while Apple is BUY BUY BUY. RIMM beat estimates by 100%? Increased subscriber base and cash position to the dismay of shorts and bearish pundits. It is down 15% from its after hours high and in the past 3 days over half of the outstanding shares have traded hands, which of course is quite suspicious when 83% of the outstanding shares are held by institutions, 17% was already short and then their are individual owners. How can the same available share be sold over 3 times? Nokia is in the same boat, unrelentless shorts pouncing on any bad news, or even turning positive news into bad news. The analysts always leave out royalties and other income payments (MSFT giving NOK a billion a year right now) in their analysis. But the facts are, RIMM stopped the bleeding and was cash flow positive. With every share just held as a long, 50% of outstanding traded in the past 3 days and half of those shares have been sold short, as we approach D Day it is going to be tough to cover when liquidity dries up and volume trends lower as available supply diminishes. Nokia's D day is coming much sooner, but giving the current trend away from Google by a broad number of companies, Apple's location and commerce failure which of course is being ignored by most analysts and the global launch across an increasing number of carriers will show that Nokia is here to stay and that the Long Apple, Short Nokia trade will no longer work. It will be the time to reverse that trade as a hedge play.
    Oct 1 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion (RIMM): FQ2 EPS of -$0.27 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $2.87B (-31% Y/Y) beats by $370M. 7.4M BlackBerry shipments, 130K PlayBooks. Shares +14% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Every short says the same thing. RIMM is dead! How can a company with zero debt, a reduction in quarter over quarter liabilities, positive cash flow and an increased cash position be dead? Customers such as the DOD, CIA, FBI, other foreign intelligence and Military organizations will ensure that RIMM does not die. Unless they voluntarily give up.. If you just add together all government clients, we can get a pretty good idea on expected BB10 sales and this of course would be at the low end, a worst case scenario. Being a user of the playbook, I can attest to the fact that others outside of government will buy a blackberry device. Every individual views value from a different light and the purchase of a 32G playbook for $235 was a no-brainer over the comparable $750 IPAD. I can use any social media, access any banking or financial website, play any game, launch any application that is available on the WORLD WIDE WEB. Some of these interactions are more efficient then the experience received from using an Ipad, others not as much. However, for a fraction of the cost and giving the life cycle for such a device, saving the $500 by buying the playbook over the Ipad is the savvy move for a rational investor that would like to retire at some point without government assistance. As that $500 bought me some Bank of America last January at $6 in my ROTH IRA which has now turned into $750 since BAC is at $9. Have I said that I could not be happier with the playbook. My daughter loves PBSkids and disney junior. She receives a better experience using those websites through my playbook, then with my wifes Ipad (which was giving to her by her brother who is a huge Apple fan). I laugh at all the fools who own a Apple product. Unless your a 2%'er, I doubt they any emergency savings set aside for 6-months, or $ their child's education and for their own retirement. As the statistics demonstrate, the average American has around $50,000 in an IRA approaching retirement, well short of what is required. In the real world, only the top 5% of the population has the economic feasability to buy a Apple product without significantly affecting their ability to make contributions towards retirement and save $ for other more important goals such as home ownership, home repairs, education etc. With the average national salary being around $40,000, a net value well less thanks to Federal, State and Payroll taxes, the average American would be spending almost 3% of their earnings on one device that will last for a few years. Apple has created millions of fools. As soon as you buy an Ipad, it loses more value then what it would cost to buy a playbook. The reality is, most people will still need either a laptop or desktop in addition, so the numbers are that much worse. When demand begin's to falter as Apple will never be able to maintain this level of consumption for a product selling at a premium, Apple will become the next Netflix, RIMM, NOK, Motorola, Lenova, HP, the list goes on...
    Sep 27 07:46 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Research In Motion's (RIMM) FQ2 call: Thorsten Heins claims mid-tier BlackBerry 10 devices will arrive by next fall, and low-end "concept designs" could appear at some point next year. That could be too late, given Android's low-end march. BlackBerry 7 will be supported "for quite some time," particularly on the low-end. Heins adds RIM has met with CEOs from several companies about partnerships and BB10 licensing, but provides few details. (more) (live blog[View news story]
    The shorts better start running. With institutional ownership at 83% and 16% shorted, every outstanding share needs to be purchased to cover. However, I as an individual investor am not represented in that 83%, so it is potentially much higher. Which begs the question, how many shares are held by individuals. Either way, when the squeeze comes, it is going to skyrocket as available for sale securities are well below the actual shares that will be required to cover. Quarterly earnings proved RIMM is not going anywhere. Cash flow was positive and their cash position improved. As always, analysts told you to buy when it was at $70 all the way up to $140, to hold as it crashed down to $10, then sell once it breached $10. A better strategy would be to do the very opposite, one which I have been utilizing and has been working out well. Bank of America is another great example. As it went down below $7, analysts continually reduced estimates and lowered ratings. They said to buy when it was at $14, hold as it breached $10 and then to sell when it hit $7. And now that it is back to $9, Cramer says to BUY! That advice would of been much better when it was at $5!
    Sep 27 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK +0.2%) will post a €0.25/share loss next year after losing €0.34/share this year, predicts BMO's Tim Long, who's downgrading shares to Underperform and valuing the company at just $2/share (purely on account of its cash and patents). Long predicts Nokia's Lumia phone sales will come in at a disappointing 20M in 2013, a figure that will fail to offset an expected 15% drop in industry feature phone sales. (prior downgrades[View news story]
    Please tell me why someone on an analog or 2G network would pay $550 for a smart phone?
    Sep 27 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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