Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Long story short: It's Priceline not Qualcomm at $1,000 a share  [View news story]
    Bubble? 54 Billion market cap now. A company that offers a service with no MOAT and easy switching costs, with many competitors is worth more than most S&P 500 companies... Have gone short!
    Oct 2, 2013. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry bulk shippers on the move as rates spike overnight  [View news story]
    I owned EGLE for many years and sold out when it last spiked about $5.50. While I should not complain as I made $1.2 per share, only as the result of double dollar cost averaging, I would of stood to of made another $3 per share, or $60,000 (ouch). Over the years this stock was a thorn in my side as bankruptcy was always a risk and they nearly went if it were not for RBS. While shipping rates have soared recently, they will pull back and EGLE has historically retraced any major moves by over 20%. So we can easily see this back to $6. Though, with any retracement to these levels and a thorough consolidation pattern following, this would be a great long-term trade as it could easily break $10. For now, I have gone short!
    Sep 26, 2013. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Vale Offer Bulls Some Respite?  [View article]
    P/E is based upon earnings, earnings takes into account currency changes, and many non-cash related charges. Which is exactly why Vale has a P/E of 35. Most web-sites do not accurately display Vales correct P/E. Forward P/E is an 8, as this is what it would of been if not for non-cash related accounting adjustments. So from a cash flow perspective, specifically, free cash flow, over the past 5 years the average free cash flow is around 16 Billion. A market cap of 80 billion/16 Billion and we have a 5 year average price to cash flow of 5. Plus a hefty dividend and increasing future capacity to increase revenue into the future. How does this depict a strong 2014? Well, Iron Ore prices did not crash below 90, which would of driven many high cost producers bankrupt (Vale can turn a profit at around $60), it bottomed at $110 and has increased since then. The data from China has been better than expected and shipping rates are up 300%. Dry bulk shipping is directly tied to the transportation of commodities like Iron Ore. So if the shippers are starting to see an increase in demand, then so is Vale!
    Sep 26, 2013. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Vale Offer Bulls Some Respite?  [View article]
    Long vale! Been buying handful's when it goes below $14. Even in 2009 they earned 5 billion, with cash flows even greater. Which puts them at a 10 price to cash flow. Then in the good years they earned 20 bil in profit and closer to 25 billion in cash flow. A 3 price to cash flow. Iron ore while it is no where nears its high, it is also no where near its lows. With a hefty dividend, buying vale now is no brainer. A weakening dollar increases their net income, but a strengthening dollar benefits their dollar based debt, increasing the book value. Vale and Petrobas will be my retirement! It setting up technically for a major move to $19. Then in a year we will be back to $24 which will only bring their market cap back to 110billion give or take a few billion. Which is still only a 4-5 price to cash flow .
    Sep 25, 2013. 10:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank analysts say large-cap miners view credit markets as still open for multibillion dollar fundings, and they sense a disconnect between equity performance and business fundamentals. Given the massive selloff in commodity names, the firm offers four contrarian buying opportunities in the sector: FCX, TC, VALE, CDE[View news story]
    Sinedo, I have seen it as well. I have reported it to the SEC and yet they do nothing. How can Oil continue to rise yet Oil stocks continue to fall? Petrobas is 50% of book value and was pummelled today past its 5 year low, yet Oil was up again. This market is due for a correction, yet it has already. It's just what market, global cyclical stocks are at 5 year lows, so we are either entering a period of prolong austerity (and depression) or we will see a short covering of these commodity names including hard assets.
    Jul 2, 2013. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT +1.7%) roundup: 1) Telefonica (TEF) and Microsoft plan an "enhanced marketing effort" to promote Windows Phone in the U.K., Germany, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, and Chile. The campaign, which should please Nokia (NOK), is Telefonica's latest attempt to become less dependent on iOS/Android, and thus gain more leverage for cutting subsidies. 2) Sprint (S) has launched its first Windows Phones: Samsung's 4.8" Ativ S Neo, and HTC's 4.3" 8XT. They arrive amidst reports HTC is prepping a WP8 version of its popular One phone. 3) Morgan Stanley thinks Microsoft's rumored restructuring would be "received favorably" by investors, and would "better address the integration among groups of products."  [View news story]
    Open source and only for techies. The average person, which represents 98% of the population cannot use Linux. It is an operating systems, check out Red Hat.
    Jun 28, 2013. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skittishness in the markets has the yen (FXY) resuming gains against the dollar, with dollar/yen sliding 1.2% to ¥101.13. After a couple of frightening plunges in the past few sessions, the Nikkei took the yen's gain rather well, falling just 0.9% to 14,189. EWJ -1.7%, DXJ -1.5% premarket. Action to eye: The JGB market as the 10-year yield carves out a new Y/Y high, up 4 bps to 0.93%  [View news story]
    A falling dollar should mean a rebound in commodities. If commodities start to go up, then inflation will start to show its ugly head and this will give the FED room to reign in its QE. Giving that commodities and global cyclical stocks have lagged significantly (Vale is at a multi-year low!) even as supply is being reduced whether through reduced investment or idled operations and of course endless QE by every central bank around the world, we should see a significant rebound in these plays such as Vale.
    May 29, 2013. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver (SLV) plunged to its lowest level in nearly 3 years overnight before a bounce brought it to its current price of $21.60, -3.3%. As with gold, silver ETP holdings have dropped to the lowest levels this year, and speculative short positions are on the rise, according to CFTC data. Gold (GLD) took out its April lows earlier - dropping as low as $1,338. A bounce has brought the metal back to $1,351, -1%[View news story]
    Gold and silver are being driving down by Hedge Funds who are shorting Future positions. They have no intention of taking possession of the commodity, but are driving the price down through the use of Futures, which of course are not even paper. I have been looking long and hard to buy silver bullion. Premiums over spot are breaking records, in India they are up over 100%. The US Mint produced the fewest amount of coins this year as they have a shortage of physical gold and silver. Most independent Mints are sold out or having 10-12 week delay's in delivery. Every single actual seller of bullion states "due to unprecedented demand," we cannot guarantee a ship date, or they are charging 20% above spot!. I was supposed to receive Silver last week from Northwest Mint and the delivery was delayed yet again another 30 days. Forget about the argument about inflation, monetary policy, currency devaluation and all of the other reasons to own precious metals, just look at what is really occurring. Massive shortages and the price's are plummeting due to the short selling of a paper asset that is correlated to gold/silver. Manipulation at its best!
    May 20, 2013. 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The list of 52-week lows reached today is littered with miners and resource names: ABX, ACI, AG, AKS, ANV, AU, AUQ, AUY, CDE, CLF, CVE, EGO, EXK, EXXI, FCX, FNV, FST, GFI, GG, GOLD, HL, HMY, IAG, IPI, KGC, MHR, MT, MTL, NEM, NFX, NG, NGD, NOG, PAAS, PWE, RGLD, RIC, SA, SAND, SGY, SSRI, SVM, TCK, TGB, TRQ, WLT, WTI, X[View news story]
    Strengthening dollar has led to a decline in commodities. Why is the dollar going up? Maybe its because we keep printing $ (kidding). This should devalue the dollar and lead to inflation, which would cause commodity names to increase in value as it would require more dollars to buy the same amount of an asset. The carry trade, thanks Japan, has led to a strengthening dollar. Though, their is now an unwinding of the carry trade, which will lead to a decline in dollars and a rebound in commodity prices. Such a joke! CITI provides a dire forecast as a means to allow their institutional clients to cover their short positions before proxy statements are gonna be issued. If I own a 100 shares in X and those shares are borrowed and sold short, then two people are registered owners of the same share. Yet, we both cannot receive proxy statements as this would be fraud! Voting twice with the same social security # is a felony. So how does someone short prevent this kind of fraud from occurring? Pay a lot of $ to an analyst to support your thesis that the world is coming to an end so you can cover your position at a lower price level.

    Fraud, Fraud and more Fraud. Where is the SEC? The shares of many of my stocks are borrowed and sold short. You can see this based upon where the shares are held if you have a margin account. I and the other owner of my shares(person who bought from the short seller) are required by law to receive a proxy statement. How do we both receive proxy for the same shares? It is a felony unless the short sales are covered, allowing for one vote per share. Which really does not prevent fraud form occurring, because if I had CUSIP XXXX1234, and my shares were borrowed and sold short, there is no way possible that the short seller can replace my shares with CUSIP XXXX1234, which means my proxy represents ownership in different shares assuming they are covered in time. I can smell the rotten egg's of lower Manhattan a thousand miles away!
    Apr 16, 2013. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steel imports fell 17.1% Y/Y in March and are down 11.7% YTD, and Wells Fargo says the decline is a negative for U.S. Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS) since it is "driven by weak domestic steel prices that have made foreign steel less attractive to U.S. buyers, as well as softer than seasonal end demand." The firm remains cautious on the steel sector until fundamentals improve in Europe and China.  [View news story]
    Wells Fargo is doing a service for its hedge fund clients. Trying to drive down the price, so they can get out of their shorts within getting hosed. That is all. The real question is, where are the regulators?
    Apr 10, 2013. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC) is downgraded to Hold at JMP Securities which cites the firm's still-heavy exposure to the PC business. Shares -0.6% premarket.  [View news story]
    What a joke, just like when they told us to sell Cisco at $15, but its ok to buy it now that there over $20.. Freedom of information should have limits in that when one persons comments cause so much to be lost, those comments should come with a disclosure.

    "We told you to buy when it was at $30, hold through the $20's and now sell that it is approaching $20." Any moron, which their are many because the stock is down, that follows this advice should be herded up into the insane asylum along with this analysts. Sometimes I wish we lived in Russia so we could do this!
    Apr 1, 2013. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How much debt can the U.S. handle? A new paper quantifies an 80% public debt to GDP ratio - where the U.S. is right now - as the point at which a nation reaches a potential tipping point; once a nation has debt above that level, it becomes vulnerable to the kind of self-reinforcing vicious cycles that have crippled others. Two responses from Fed officials see the analysis as simplistic and eurocentric[View news story]
    Value is derived from obtaining a return from ones investment. Why else would anyone lend someone else $? provide their labor ? The government distributes capital all the time in order to be fair, but is this really creating any value? Realistically, the only reason one would allocate capital (whether $, labor etc) is to add value or in the case of $, a return. Capital allocation, whether at a company, city, state level is focused towards the placing $ where the greatest opportunity (aka Value) is, hence why education and first responders garnish the largest parts of local budgets! It is called, return on investment. There are a number of tools to evaluate an investment such as pay-back period, net present value or internal rate of return. It is the process of seeking value while mitigating risk that is what capital allocation is all about. So why would you want to restrict the free flow of capital? If a person of wealth can obtain greater value for their investment, why should we restrict it? Should we force the Gates Foundation to invest their endowment in the US? They do not, because Africa provides greater value, but using your line of thinking, maybe we should restrict where they provide services. Should we allocate all government resources to pay for medicaid? What is the value in that? Does it add jobs, keep people from poverty? No, but it is fair!
    Feb 25, 2013. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal and state regulators are reportedly investigating the role of major banks in facilitating the activities of online payday lenders that make short-term loans at exorbitant interest rates. The banks, which can earn lucrative overdraft and other fees, allow the lenders to automatically withdraw cash from debtor accounts, even in states where such loans are banned.  [View news story]
    Why do people use payday loans? Is it really to pay the utility bill? An individual needs to authorize for electronic payment or ACH. A signature is required in just about every situation. How can a bank manage each individual overdraft? Wait, they can do as the government and higher a million people to sift through every transaction.
    Feb 25, 2013. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research in Motion (RIMM) is downgraded to Sell at BMO, with price target cut to $9. Shares -3.5% premarket.  [View news story]
    Really, that is one questionable call giving BB10 launch is weeks away. Another analyst playing favorites and giving their hedge fund clients another opportunity to cover there shorts before they get caught with their pants off.

    RIMM is as much as a sell is Apple is.....
    Jan 11, 2013. 07:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research in Motion (RIMM) is downgraded to Sell at Canaccord, which says the fundamentals don't support the recent 30% gain in the stock price. The BB10 is an improvement, says Canaccord's Mike Walkley, but he assigns "a very low probability" it can turn around the company's long-term business trends. Shares -1.7% premarket.  [View news story]
    Another analyst protecting their clients who are short. 10 day average volume is 58.79 million. With only 524 shares in issue, every share has traded over the past 9 days. Giving 80% are owned by institutions or others required to report their holdings and 20% is already short, how can 11% of the outstanding shares trade daily. Market manipulation!
    Dec 3, 2012. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment