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  • Petrobras posts $1B Q3 loss but EBITDA jumps 82% [View news story]
    Back up the truck and keep loading up. Record short, will have to cover soon with OPEC meeting and oil surplus declining.
    Nov 13, 2015. 09:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale: Pulling The Right Strings To Benefit From China In The Long Run [View article]
    Long! My retirement strategy is to accumulate a large long-term position in Vale and watch it go to $20 when the shorts cover. IO will reach a new equilibrium as supplier's fold leaving the big three standing, which has been the strategy since day 1. OPEC is doing the same, which is forcing out high cost producers (US Shale), but the key difference; It's easy to turn a rig back on, it is next to impossible to turn a mine back on without significant investment and resources!
    Oct 28, 2015. 08:49 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale proposes slashing dividend amid uncertain commodities outlook [View news story]
    Who is Vale going to get acquired by? They are the lower cost producer, the most efficient producer and produces the higher quality, ore content, which yields a premium over spot giving the decreased costs and lower pollution associated with steel production. Vale is able to generate 5bil in free cash flow a year at these prices, sales are in dollar's while cost of production in real's. If you are paying less to produce something, yet obtaining a premium for its sale relative to your local currency, that is a positive. Giving Vale doesn't have a lot of debt, strong cash flow, they are the ones that would do the acquiring!
    Sep 29, 2015. 08:31 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale: Investors Pay For The Company's Long-Term Strategy [View article]
    VALE generated 3bil in free cash flow in Q2, which is down from 5bil quarterly in 2010/11/12. 9 months ending 9/302014, generated 11.6bil, figure another 3bil in Q4 and Vale will again generate 15bil in free cash flow. That 80 cent dividend equates 4 bil, can easily cover which means=10% yield on the stock!
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale to cut spending 26% amid iron ore price collapse [View news story]
    Commodity costs are stabilizing. We are always one disaster or conflict away from panic. Capital flows are coming to a complete halt within the mining and oil exploration/upstream industries. Only well developed projects will be funded, marginal players bankrupted all leading to lowering production growth est. and revision of valuations. No more wild cats.... This 6 year, almost 7, depression in commodity prices is about to come to an end. Let's not forget what drives inflation long term: money printing. Before we just had the US printing $, now the EU and many other Asian nations are. US needs low rates as 9 trillion of our debt is in short/medium term notes with around 4 billion in 2 year and under. $ to service the debt could triple if rates went back to where they were in 07, which wasn't high to historical standards. It would consume 30% of Federal revenue! US gov has put the FED in a corner it can't get out of! They fear the results of higher rates! All of this liquidity is going to find a home and lead to another bubble, before that happens, Energy and Materials will take off up 4-10x depending. Time to buy is now. Come January 1st Vale and PBR, other like RIG will all soar.
    Dec 2, 2014. 12:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Vale To Rebound In The Mid-Term [View article]
    15% should be easy. A rebound to $15 within months is not out of the question. Also, come Jan 1st, people will move $ into the prior years worst performers. Look at what happened to BAC Jan 1st 2012!
    Sep 24, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Vale To Rebound In The Mid-Term [View article]
    Vale is also like the 3rd most shorted stock. Talking about record volumes to the down side, which are all borrowed shares. Giving that the gov owns a large #, they are not lending them out for short sales, so at some point real soon the sell-side powder will dry and shorts will have to cover.
    Sep 24, 2014. 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    Electricity costs have gone up 70% since last year alone. Price per KW was 9.6 cents and its now close to 16 cents. Coal costs 5 cent a KW, so why are we 300% above one of the low cost options for producing electricity? EPA and other government regulations that have indirectly increased the price of goods. Go to NYC and see what it costs for a weekend. I hope your credit card has a higher max then $800, as you will need $2000.
    Sep 19, 2014. 02:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    Inflation is everywhere. Do you eat? Do you drive? Have you looked at your utility bill? Have you seen the cost to rent? I do not know about you, maybe your a 1% and a small fraction of your income goes to the basics, but for the 50% living pay-check to pay-check inflation is rampant! All of your $ goes to items not included in CORE inflation. A LB of ground beef broke $4 for the first time, Cocoa up, oil has doubled since Obama took office, rent is up double digits annually. The average sale price in the town I live has gone from 420k in 2012 to 590k in 2014. BUT, there is no inflation. Regulations are increasing costs across the board. While that bottle of shampoo may cost the same, the price per OZ is up as the size of the container has decreased. Companies are adding more water weight to chickens, soup and just about anything they can to combat increasing the price per good, but the cost per unit/OZ is up double digits annually.
    Sep 19, 2014. 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    buy backs have put a floor in share prices. Standing instructions are, buy if stock declines 5%, or if goes below this price. Investment bankers managing those buy-backs will buy every time that stocks touches the low end of a bollinger band or whatever the measure, thus putting a floor in and allowing people to trade on technical patterns. Remove this and those support levels would be broken!
    Sep 19, 2014. 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    100% agree. There is a reason why the Dow and S&P are breaking highs while the Russel is flirting with a death cross. IBM, GE, INTC all have the ability and are, borrowing to buy back stock! Increasing debt on their balance sheet to increase EPS by reducing the denominator. As rates rise, so does the cost and there goes the benefit. There will be greater benefit for IBM, Cisco etc to SELL stock at the record prices to increase their CASH coffers so that they can manage there way through any bear market or rising rates!
    Sep 19, 2014. 01:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Bottom-Fish For Vale SA? [View article]
    Do you not report your dividends and cap gains to the IRS? What's the difference if they are taking out up-front or when you report year-end? The US gov takes just as much!
    Sep 18, 2014. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Bottom-Fish For Vale SA? [View article]
    Like the US is shareholder friendly? Capital gains tax, dividend tax have or are going up. Heavy handed regulations being implemented nationally by EPA, Obamacare etc. US is becoming Brazil, so you might as well invest where the lesson has already been learned!
    Sep 18, 2014. 02:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tepper: Bond rally about over [View news story]
    Or he thinks the 35 year bond market rally has come to an end! interest rates were what in the 80'? I know my father had a mortgage with a 15% interest rate! Today were at 4%. That 30 year bond has gone straight up in value to bring a 15 % yield down to 4%!
    Sep 4, 2014. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tepper: Bond rally about over [View news story]
    Bill Gross's call in March 2012 was too early. I think Tepper is dead on. TBT has been rallying hard from a multi-year bottom. It is a great hedge against rising rates and had tested it's multi-year lows. The latest move that brought rates back to record lows was the last leg. The Fed is ending QE3 this month and will be raising rates by March.
    Sep 4, 2014. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment