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Sir Duke

Sir Duke
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  • Gilead Has Been Rocked After Earnings, But I'm Looking To Buy! [View article]
    Timmies, I also think PPS is likely to see $140 by next fall. A good shot at 40% in a year? I'll take that any year. Current volatility is noise.

    Value plays take patience. I think a lot of people have an itchy trigger finger and it can be a drag on returns. Doing something feels good but doing nothing is hard.

    Loaded up, staying informed and waiting this one out.
    Nov 17, 2014. 10:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - What Convinced Me To Become Bullish [View article]
    Exactly, this is not a concern as insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons. These sales have been taking place on a monthly basis for the last two years. During that same timeframe the stock is up over 80%.
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - What Convinced Me To Become Bullish [View article]
    Zorro, I like your comparison to AAPL.

    GILD presents a rare opportunity, a cure for a major disease with no current competition, trading at a PEG < .5. Sounds too good to be true.

    I cannot explain the low price multiples for this stock. I have found nothing to discredit a bullish thesis. Either markets are more inefficient than I thought was the case or we are missing something.
    Nov 7, 2014. 06:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Stay The Course [View article]
    Week 3 Harvoni TRx is up 79% week-over-week and PPS is basically where it was a month ago. Volatility has allowed me to add additional shares at 103, 96, and 105, entry points which are going to look CHEAP 12-18 months out. GILD is a growth stock trading as a value play. Management is the best in the field. The competition looks weak, currently GILD is a cash machine.

    It seems arrogant to call the market 'wrong' but that is exactly what I'm doing by putting 40% of my portfolio in GILD.

    Fundamentally one of the best risk/ rewards out there. I don't know to what extent this stock is undervalued, I've seen price targets from $125 -$350+ it just all depends on the numbers going forward. With the strong early sales the risk is now less than it was 12 months ago.. By the time the market sees this for what it is and price action feels good the big returns will already have been made. Now it is just a matter of patience and letting this one play out.
    Nov 7, 2014. 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AbbVie's Bullishness On Its Hepatitis C Drugs Valid? [View article]
    BMD, I just looked up the Regulus HCV drug and they are still in Phase I development. Indeed the probability is much lower as you pointed out.

    Regulus has a long way to go with HCV.
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We've Become Very Interested In Kinder Morgan [View article]
    Exactly Chancer, it sounds like these investors failed to conceive an alternative scenario playing out. Good luck suing R. Kinder!
    Nov 6, 2014. 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AbbVie's Bullishness On Its Hepatitis C Drugs Valid? [View article]
    CSYJ, thank you for sharing.

    "100% (171/171) SVR4 regardless of age, treatment history or the presence or absence of cirrhosis."

    Those are incredible results.
    Nov 6, 2014. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - What Convinced Me To Become Bullish [View article]
    Man that $386 PT is way too high. Common sense dictates this is not appropriate given the risk GILD carries compared to other pharmaceuticals that have more diversified product lines. Why model and share something you know you is unreasonable?

    The market might be slightly off, but not over 3.5x off when it comes to valuing a large cap.
    Nov 5, 2014. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - What Convinced Me To Become Bullish [View article]
    Even if litigation costs were to total 1B they currently make that in a month.

    Why isn't the stock already at $150? The simplest answer is the lion's share of total revenues are coming from essentially one product, and this risk is what keeps GILD trading at a lower PEG multiple. For whatever reason the market is only willing to pay for current profits not expected earnings.
    Nov 5, 2014. 04:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Stay The Course [View article]
    Puzzling to me as well Glenn, can't explain Mr. Market but I'm adding on dips. Fundamentals look great. GILD is making billions of dollars and trades like a scared cat.
    Nov 5, 2014. 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Stay The Course [View article]
    Added shares near 50-day MA @ 105.90
    Nov 5, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AbbVie's Bullishness On Its Hepatitis C Drugs Valid? [View article]
    The probability of advancing to Phase III testing conditional on starting Phase II testing is 48%. The probability of an FDA new drug approval after successfully completing the safety profile is only 27%.

    http://bit.ly/LL14UA
    Nov 5, 2014. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AbbVie's Bullishness On Its Hepatitis C Drugs Valid? [View article]
    This article is a gem. Thank you for taking the time to explain the abstracts for those of us without a science background.
    Nov 4, 2014. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Slaying The Last Dragons Of Doubt? [View article]
    Add Standard and Poors to the list of 'cheerleaders' with their PT of $204. GILD is one of the few deals hidden in plain sight.

    Remember that markets take from the weak and give to the strong. Anyone selling their shares today can check back with me in 18 months and then we can see how much the competition really mattered.
    Nov 3, 2014. 09:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Stage Set For Rally [View article]
    Agree grox01, to each their own. A limited # of portfolio positions yields extreme results. That's the point. An oversized position allows you to knock it out of the park... diversification dilutes your winning horses.

    A strategy not for the faint of heart: concentrate to accumulate, diversify to protect. Highly probable that the market will eventually value GILD much much higher, the earnings growth is accelerated and the price has not caught up to a reasonable multiple. Efficient markets? Not even close.

    This is an opportunity to make 50%+ in a year on a med risk pharma. Buy the index and what do expect a reasonable return might be over the same period?

    GILD is not exactly a startup here, it would take a black swan to ruin. For some that is a risk they are unwilling to take but you can't make money if you get scared out of a great investment.

    Disclosure: 40% GILD
    Oct 20, 2014. 10:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
141 Comments
283 Likes