Xerox: Long-Term View Could Reward Patient Investors [View article]
All the negatives are valid, BUT---one super plain to see fundamental is overriding, IMHO. That overriding VALUE is that only IBM (one company) has a larger treasure trove of patents in NANOTECHNOLOGY, the technology for the 21st Century. As an acquisition target, I CANNOT think of ANY company with greater worth to a savvy and R & D oriented technological tiger. All of the following could buy out XRX "on the cheap" and score a Home Run: IBM, GE, HPQ, MMM , A, and UTX. If IBM took them over they would control over 15% of ALL of the entire World's total number of issued Nanotechnology patents. UTX has over the years "bought value on the cheap" as its purchase of Otis elevator in 1976 was a pennies for dollars deal. MMM is also one of the foremost believers that Nanotech is THE FUTURE and buying XRX could be a No-Brainer! This is my pick: UTX or MMM would be perfect acquirors.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Xerox [View article]
Xerox will outperform ALL indexes for the next 3 years unless ACQUIRED earlier. The Real Value is not known by too many investors. Xerox has quietly, over the last 10 years, been filing Nanotechnology patents left & right and up & down and TODAY it is second in Nano patents only to IBM (why do you think Buffett bought 11 Billion $$$ worth of IBM---because the real future is in NANO POWER). I will bet my analyst reputation that Xerox gets bought out for over $25 a share within the not too distant future. The king of Nano (IBM) is $188 and a bargain; the runner-up in Nano (XRX) is UNDER $9.00 and an incredible BARGAIN.
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
If you will check out my last 25 comments by clicking on "Hidden Value" (above) you will see that mega inflation is coming sure as night follows day. Check out my "Ten for 2013" for an ideal portfolio given what is starting to occur worldwide--increasing prices and general inflation. In particular, INTEREST RATES will skyrocket as Bernake soon does an about-face. Bet the house AGAINST stable prices & low inflation. As the greatest hockey player of all time, Wayne Gretski, Best Buys (IMHO): TBT and PST. once said:"I don't want to chase where the puck is currently, I want to ANTICIPATE & BE where I believe the puck will go."
3 Strong Financial Stocks To Consider Now, 1 To Avoid [View article]
As I promised one week ago, I am now releasing HIDDEN VALUE'S TOP TEN (10) FOR 2013 PICKS (Showing Closing Prices on December 31, 2012).
1) (ILF). This ETF tracks Braz./Mex./Arg. Closing Price 43.88 2) (EMLP). Energy play on USA & CAN. Closing Price 20.83 3) (SMH). Semiconductors to rock '13!. Closing Price 32.33 4) (BPOP). Bank improving & thin float. Closing Price 20.79 5) (SPPI). Great Biotech CEO, IMHO. Closing Price 11.19 6) (AVEO).The Great Termeer Factor. Closing Price 8.05 7) (YHOO).Dirt cheap as a buyout stock. Closing Price 19.90 8) (YCS). Favorite Spec Stock for 2013. Closing Price 50.77 9) (PST). 2nd Fav Spec.as Ylds. rise '13. Closing Price 27.60 10) (SNV) My 3rd. Fav. Spec.Solid Bank. Closing Price 2.44
The first 7 selections are less risky than the last 3 BUT I consider picks 8, 9, and 10 speculative powerhouses. As in 2012, allocate 10% to each pick. Cheers!
3 Strong Financial Stocks To Consider Now, 1 To Avoid [View article]
My Top 10 for 2012 have been a massive winner through 21 Dec. 2012 (check it out yourself by clicking on Hidden Value above). I selected 7 blue chips and 3 specs for 2012, as any ten stock portfolio should have NO LESS than 30% weighting, in aggresive speculative stocks. My upcoming Top 10 for 2013 Portfolio (to be released Mon. Dec. 31) will again consist of 7 blue chips and 3 specs. Among the 3 specs will be SNV. My most spectacular pick of 2012 was precisely one of my 3 spec picks (LCC- up massively). Since 2007 I have not had a losing year.
Michael Harkins offers a quick lesson in duration, saying a buyer of the 10-year Treasury at 1.5% will get crushed with just a move back in yields to 2.5%. The bond market is a fabulous bubble, he says, growing in size as those who went short at the then impossibly low rate of 2.5% a year ago lack the conviction to do the same at 1.5%. [View news story]
When hyperinflation arrives (and surely it will, in my humble opinion) the yields that will be demanded by Treasury Bond buyers (both Pros and Retail investors) will be astronomical (think Jimmy Carter yields just for starters). Just before the USA goes bust within a few years yields may well exceed 18% on long-dated treasuries and those sane enough to load up now on (TBF) will make gains only matched by AAPL. In my scenario, TBF, currently just a whisker under $29 per ETF share, could rise into the multiples of $100 range. And the downside today is super low; in my entire lifetime I have never seen a 5 year time horizon LOCK like TBF or (PST). Opinion givers are always hedging their opinions but I will go out on a limb: Bet the farm against low treasury yields. Not since Sugar futures sold for ONE CENT ($0.01) has there been such a cinch trade available to rational thinkers.
Shorting U.S. Treasuries: The Best Trade of the Next Decade [View article]
Very good, common sense article. Bubbles can last beyond what would appear logical, BUT ultimately all Bubbles burst. Yields of 2.625% for 30 year T.B. are beyond ridiculous. And how about 1% for 7 year maturities?
I would like to submit the ultimate "safe bet" anti-TB trade: (TBF) $28.17 as July/2012 comes to a close. TBF is an UNleveraged bet that the yield on 20 year treasury bonds will RISE going forward. If you like money and you are patient and logical I would argue you could buy and "put away" TBF and check it again in 3 years, or 5 years if you are greedier.
(PST) $27.52 is my #2 choice to make a killing when the Bubble ultimately bursts. But, remember to remain rational when the multitudes seek "Safe Haven"??? in 1% sevens and 2 5/8th in thirties.
Buying stocks is like betting on a horse race. Find Secreteriat amongst a bunch of Claimers. Then, bet heavy on Secreteriat. Diversification in Treasuries is crazy. Either Treasuries will continue rising (highly unlikely due to current Negative yields if buying power of $ is taken into account) or treasuries will crater big time within 6 months to 60 months. If your logic points in this "crater" scenario you just need ONE Secreteriat ETF that has no leverage and adequate volume. Then, have conviction, fortitude and patience to make BIG BUCKS over the intermediate timeframe. My Secreteriat of Treasury ETF's is: (TBF) at $29.20 on Independence Day, July 4, 2012. Break the piggy bank and sell your family jewels. Secreteriats among claimers lead to wealth over time.
The Worst Bond Investing Advice I've Ever Read [View article]
I have speculated and/or invested for over 50 years. In those fifty years I have found only two 100% cinches: 1) Many years ago I bought World Sugar futures at just slightly above a penny ($0.01). The second SUPER CINCH (if you have a 3 to 5 year time horizon) is avalilable TODAY: Symbol (TBF) at 29.20 based on the close as of July 2, 2012 is about as close to a sure thing as I ever hoped to find. Shorting a yield of 2.30% for 20 year treasuries is, in my mind, as close to a mortal lock as any savvy speculator could hope to find. My 3 to 5 year prognostication is a yield of 5.5% to 8.5%. Since (TBF) is 100% unleveraged and has decent volume you can hold it as long as you wish. No matter who wins in Nov. the likelihood of the bubble bursting in Treasuries is spectacular, in my opinion.
Why We Are Rejecting The Take-Private Offer For Books-A-Million [View article]
The Anderson's are Robin Hood in reverse. I made BAMM one of Hidden Value's Top Ten (10) for 2012. You can check it out by clicking on HIDDEN VALUE above and reading my past postings. However, if you re-invest the BAMM proceeds into (SPPI), as I have done, you will do even better. SPPI is now my 10th pick for 2012, taking the place of BAMM.
5 Stocks With 30%-60% Upside Right Now [View article]
SPPI reminds me of Chiron many many years back. After Chiron turned the corner from unprofitability to profitability, speculators remained skeptical for months on end with the price barely moving. However, once The Street reached consensus and agreement as to Chiron's future growth prospects the stock rose 1,000% and was ultimately bought out at a premium over and above the 1000% price advancement it had already reached. If SPPI keeps delivering exceptional growth in sales, earnings and drug discoveries, it is highly likely it will duplicate Chiron's path. Patience is golden. It takes time for The Street to reach consensus and agreement.
Anderson Family Proposes Transaction to Acquire 100% of Public Interest in Books-A-Million, Inc. [View article]
In December of 2011 I selected BAMM as one of Hidden Value's Top 10 for 2012 at a price of $2.20 at that time. If this deal goes through at 3.05 (I hope is does not) the gain will approach 50% in less than one-half year. However, the bandits in this deal are the corporate insiders who are acquiring BAMM on the super duper cheap! I will repeat here Hidden Value's Top Ten for 2012 with the price the day I selected them: 1) (GM) $20.80 2) (DISH) $25.68 3) (INTC) $24.00 4) (GE) $16.45 5) (TXN) $29.13 6) (VZ) $38.35 7) (MRK) $35.41 8) (BAMM) $ 2.20 9) (UAL) $20.78 10)(LCC) $ 5.63 This list, I believe, currently beat 97%, or better, of selectors in the Seeking Alpha community regarding 2012 stock choices. People nearly laughed at me when BAMM was one of my top ten choices. For the record, I will be using the BAMM proceeds to acquire (SPPI) at $10.63.
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI -3%) reverses early morning gains to trade lower on what appears to be profit taking, despite posting solid Q1 results. Total revenue jumped 36% Y/Y on srong performance by its chemotherapy drug Fusilev, plus better cost controls and aggressive management of operating expenses. [View news story]
At the end of 4th quarter ending 12/31/11 the number of accounts buying Fusilev was UNDER 600 accounts. Three months later, on 03/31/12, accounts buying Fusilev now EXCEEDS 1200 accounts. That kind of accounts growth is simply spectacular. Add an acquisition "on the cheap", stellar management, and a deep pipeline and you have the makings of a premier biotech player in the making. The inclusion of (SPPI) in the S. & P. SmallCap 600 Index adds validation that the Company is being judged as a growth biotechnology company.
What To Do With Chelsea After The FDA Snub [View article]
Dear Nolesince87,
Above all else I want to congratulate you for having both the smarts and the aspiration to make your mark as a biochemist working for a premier drug company in the future. Yours is a meritorious and lofty goal which I admire.
My primary gripe with many drugs sold at truly outrageous prices (for which we all pay some of the price) is that the extension of life they achieve is often measured in weeks or at best mere months of added life. The benefits versus costs do not add up. I indeed submit that dying gracefully and without bankrupting our families is more dignified and sensible than grasping for a few weeks more of life.
I do agree, however, that someday REAL CURES will be found for some diseases. Such efforts are worthwhile. Nevertheless an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cures. Essentially, as you see it, and as I point out, our views both seek wholesome outcomes.
I hope you discover something as potent as the common aspirin has been the last 100 years; only that your discovery 100% cures the disease for which intended. Meantime, don't punish your body, exercise, love, worship and seek to uplift every member of the human race. When we all prosper, the World becomes a finer interim habitat for humanity. Cheers and wish you great success and happiness.
The Myths Of The Silver / Gold Ratio: Don't Buy Into It [View article]
Silver Dollars were being sold for about $33 per coin where I live last October. They are now selling in the mid to high twenties. I say in effect, but only in jest, that the theoretical risk is indeed limited; as $1 would be hard core support. Now, as absurd a buy as buying physical silver coins (if YOU comprehend that that $1 is its potential downside); in my view there are potentially Worse buys which remind me of such busts as Toys.com, Webvan.com, WorldCom, etc. Their "Today" counterparts are; again in my humble opinion only, Groupon, Zillow, and Zynga. I would NOT buy Silver Coins, or gold, with your money, that alone mine, BUT i do consider their risk factor to be lower than at least one or two of those three mentioned above. Support at $1.00 for silver exceeds support at a theoretical $0.01 for "VJ" candidates. If silver bugs and gold bugs want a "near-cinch", again in my opinion only, SHORT treasuries with an 18 months time horizon. I would put 10% short in 3 to 7 year maturities, and 10% short in maturities from 7 to 30 years. That ought to be more profitable than long Gold or Silver at inflated prices.
Xerox: Long-Term View Could Reward Patient Investors [View article]
fundamental is overriding, IMHO. That overriding VALUE
is that only IBM (one company) has a larger treasure trove
of patents in NANOTECHNOLOGY, the technology for the
21st Century. As an acquisition target, I CANNOT think
of ANY company with greater worth to a savvy and R & D
oriented technological tiger. All of the following could buy
out XRX "on the cheap" and score a Home Run: IBM,
GE, HPQ, MMM , A, and UTX. If IBM took them over they
would control over 15% of ALL of the entire World's total
number of issued Nanotechnology patents. UTX has over
the years "bought value on the cheap" as its purchase of
Otis elevator in 1976 was a pennies for dollars deal. MMM
is also one of the foremost believers that Nanotech is THE
FUTURE and buying XRX could be a No-Brainer! This is
my pick: UTX or MMM would be perfect acquirors.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Xerox [View article]
3 years unless ACQUIRED earlier. The Real
Value is not known by too many investors. Xerox
has quietly, over the last 10 years, been filing
Nanotechnology patents left & right and up &
down and TODAY it is second in Nano patents
only to IBM (why do you think Buffett bought
11 Billion $$$ worth of IBM---because the real
future is in NANO POWER). I will bet my analyst
reputation that Xerox gets bought out for over
$25 a share within the not too distant future.
The king of Nano (IBM) is $188 and a bargain;
the runner-up in Nano (XRX) is UNDER $9.00
and an incredible BARGAIN.
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
on "Hidden Value" (above) you will see that mega
inflation is coming sure as night follows day. Check
out my "Ten for 2013" for an ideal portfolio given what
is starting to occur worldwide--increasing prices
and general inflation. In particular, INTEREST RATES
will skyrocket as Bernake soon does an about-face.
Bet the house AGAINST stable prices & low inflation.
As the greatest hockey player of all time, Wayne Gretski,
Best Buys (IMHO): TBT and PST.
once said:"I don't want to chase where the puck is currently,
I want to ANTICIPATE & BE where I believe the puck will go."
3 Strong Financial Stocks To Consider Now, 1 To Avoid [View article]
As I promised one week ago, I am now releasing
HIDDEN VALUE'S TOP TEN (10) FOR 2013 PICKS
(Showing Closing Prices on December 31, 2012).
1) (ILF). This ETF tracks Braz./Mex./Arg. Closing Price 43.88
2) (EMLP). Energy play on USA & CAN. Closing Price 20.83
3) (SMH). Semiconductors to rock '13!. Closing Price 32.33
4) (BPOP). Bank improving & thin float. Closing Price 20.79
5) (SPPI). Great Biotech CEO, IMHO. Closing Price 11.19
6) (AVEO).The Great Termeer Factor. Closing Price 8.05
7) (YHOO).Dirt cheap as a buyout stock. Closing Price 19.90
8) (YCS). Favorite Spec Stock for 2013. Closing Price 50.77
9) (PST). 2nd Fav Spec.as Ylds. rise '13. Closing Price 27.60
10) (SNV) My 3rd. Fav. Spec.Solid Bank. Closing Price 2.44
The first 7 selections are less risky than the last 3 BUT
I consider picks 8, 9, and 10 speculative powerhouses.
As in 2012, allocate 10% to each pick. Cheers!
3 Strong Financial Stocks To Consider Now, 1 To Avoid [View article]
through 21 Dec. 2012 (check it out yourself by
clicking on Hidden Value above). I selected 7
blue chips and 3 specs for 2012, as any ten stock
portfolio should have NO LESS than 30% weighting,
in aggresive speculative stocks. My upcoming
Top 10 for 2013 Portfolio (to be released Mon.
Dec. 31) will again consist of 7 blue chips and
3 specs. Among the 3 specs will be SNV. My
most spectacular pick of 2012 was precisely
one of my 3 spec picks (LCC- up massively).
Since 2007 I have not had a losing year.
Michael Harkins offers a quick lesson in duration, saying a buyer of the 10-year Treasury at 1.5% will get crushed with just a move back in yields to 2.5%. The bond market is a fabulous bubble, he says, growing in size as those who went short at the then impossibly low rate of 2.5% a year ago lack the conviction to do the same at 1.5%. [View news story]
my humble opinion) the yields that will be demanded
by Treasury Bond buyers (both Pros and Retail investors)
will be astronomical (think Jimmy Carter yields just for
starters). Just before the USA goes bust within a few
years yields may well exceed 18% on long-dated treasuries
and those sane enough to load up now on (TBF) will make gains
only matched by AAPL. In my scenario, TBF, currently just
a whisker under $29 per ETF share, could rise into the
multiples of $100 range. And the downside today is super
low; in my entire lifetime I have never seen a 5 year time
horizon LOCK like TBF or (PST). Opinion givers are always
hedging their opinions but I will go out on a limb: Bet the
farm against low treasury yields. Not since Sugar futures
sold for ONE CENT ($0.01) has there been such a cinch
trade available to rational thinkers.
Shorting U.S. Treasuries: The Best Trade of the Next Decade [View article]
beyond what would appear logical, BUT ultimately
all Bubbles burst. Yields of 2.625% for 30 year T.B.
are beyond ridiculous. And how about 1% for 7 year
maturities?
I would like to submit the ultimate "safe bet" anti-TB
trade: (TBF) $28.17 as July/2012 comes to a close.
TBF is an UNleveraged bet that the yield on 20 year
treasury bonds will RISE going forward. If you like
money and you are patient and logical I would argue
you could buy and "put away" TBF and check it again
in 3 years, or 5 years if you are greedier.
(PST) $27.52 is my #2 choice to make a killing when
the Bubble ultimately bursts. But, remember to remain
rational when the multitudes seek "Safe Haven"??? in
1% sevens and 2 5/8th in thirties.
Rising Rates ETF Portfolio [View article]
horse race. Find Secreteriat amongst
a bunch of Claimers. Then, bet heavy
on Secreteriat. Diversification in Treasuries
is crazy. Either Treasuries will continue
rising (highly unlikely due to current Negative
yields if buying power of $ is taken into account)
or treasuries will crater big time within 6 months
to 60 months. If your logic points in this "crater"
scenario you just need ONE Secreteriat ETF that
has no leverage and adequate volume. Then,
have conviction, fortitude and patience to make
BIG BUCKS over the intermediate timeframe.
My Secreteriat of Treasury ETF's is: (TBF) at $29.20
on Independence Day, July 4, 2012. Break the piggy
bank and sell your family jewels. Secreteriats among
claimers lead to wealth over time.
The Worst Bond Investing Advice I've Ever Read [View article]
years. In those fifty years I have found only two
100% cinches: 1) Many years ago I bought
World Sugar futures at just slightly above a
penny ($0.01).
The second SUPER CINCH (if you have a 3
to 5 year time horizon) is avalilable TODAY:
Symbol (TBF) at 29.20 based on the close
as of July 2, 2012 is about as close to a sure
thing as I ever hoped to find. Shorting a yield
of 2.30% for 20 year treasuries is, in my mind,
as close to a mortal lock as any savvy speculator
could hope to find. My 3 to 5 year prognostication
is a yield of 5.5% to 8.5%. Since (TBF) is 100%
unleveraged and has decent volume you can hold
it as long as you wish. No matter who wins in Nov.
the likelihood of the bubble bursting in Treasuries
is spectacular, in my opinion.
Why We Are Rejecting The Take-Private Offer For Books-A-Million [View article]
I made BAMM one of Hidden Value's Top Ten
(10) for 2012. You can check it out by clicking
on HIDDEN VALUE above and reading my past
postings. However, if you re-invest the BAMM
proceeds into (SPPI), as I have done, you will
do even better. SPPI is now my 10th pick for 2012,
taking the place of BAMM.
5 Stocks With 30%-60% Upside Right Now [View article]
years back. After Chiron turned the corner
from unprofitability to profitability, speculators
remained skeptical for months on end with
the price barely moving. However, once The
Street reached consensus and agreement
as to Chiron's future growth prospects the
stock rose 1,000% and was ultimately bought
out at a premium over and above the 1000%
price advancement it had already reached. If
SPPI keeps delivering exceptional growth in
sales, earnings and drug discoveries, it
is highly likely it will duplicate Chiron's path.
Patience is golden. It takes time for The Street
to reach consensus and agreement.
Anderson Family Proposes Transaction to Acquire 100% of Public Interest in Books-A-Million, Inc. [View article]
of Hidden Value's Top 10 for 2012 at a price
of $2.20 at that time. If this deal goes through
at 3.05 (I hope is does not) the gain will approach
50% in less than one-half year. However, the
bandits in this deal are the corporate insiders
who are acquiring BAMM on the super duper cheap!
I will repeat here Hidden Value's Top Ten for 2012
with the price the day I selected them:
1) (GM) $20.80
2) (DISH) $25.68
3) (INTC) $24.00
4) (GE) $16.45
5) (TXN) $29.13
6) (VZ) $38.35
7) (MRK) $35.41
8) (BAMM) $ 2.20
9) (UAL) $20.78
10)(LCC) $ 5.63
This list, I believe,
currently beat 97%,
or better, of selectors
in the Seeking Alpha
community regarding
2012 stock choices.
People nearly laughed
at me when BAMM was
one of my top ten choices.
For the record, I will be
using the BAMM proceeds
to acquire (SPPI) at $10.63.
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI -3%) reverses early morning gains to trade lower on what appears to be profit taking, despite posting solid Q1 results. Total revenue jumped 36% Y/Y on srong performance by its chemotherapy drug Fusilev, plus better cost controls and aggressive management of operating expenses. [View news story]
number of accounts buying Fusilev was
UNDER 600 accounts. Three months later,
on 03/31/12, accounts buying Fusilev now
EXCEEDS 1200 accounts. That kind of
accounts growth is simply spectacular.
Add an acquisition "on the cheap", stellar
management, and a deep pipeline and you
have the makings of a premier biotech player
in the making. The inclusion of (SPPI) in the
S. & P. SmallCap 600 Index adds validation
that the Company is being judged as a growth
biotechnology company.
What To Do With Chelsea After The FDA Snub [View article]
Above all else I want to congratulate you for
having both the smarts and the aspiration to
make your mark as a biochemist working for
a premier drug company in the future. Yours
is a meritorious and lofty goal which I admire.
My primary gripe with many drugs sold at truly
outrageous prices (for which we all pay some
of the price) is that the extension of life they
achieve is often measured in weeks or at best
mere months of added life. The benefits versus
costs do not add up. I indeed submit that dying
gracefully and without bankrupting our families
is more dignified and sensible than grasping for
a few weeks more of life.
I do agree, however, that someday REAL CURES
will be found for some diseases. Such efforts are
worthwhile. Nevertheless an ounce of prevention is
worth a pound of cures. Essentially, as you see it,
and as I point out, our views both seek wholesome
outcomes.
I hope you discover something as potent as the
common aspirin has been the last 100 years; only
that your discovery 100% cures the disease for which
intended. Meantime, don't punish your body, exercise,
love, worship and seek to uplift every member of the
human race. When we all prosper, the World becomes
a finer interim habitat for humanity. Cheers and wish you
great success and happiness.
The Myths Of The Silver / Gold Ratio: Don't Buy Into It [View article]
where I live last October. They are now selling in
the mid to high twenties. I say in effect, but only in
jest, that the theoretical risk is indeed limited; as $1
would be hard core support. Now, as absurd a buy
as buying physical silver coins (if YOU comprehend that that $1 is its potential downside); in my view there
are potentially Worse buys which remind me of such
busts as Toys.com, Webvan.com, WorldCom,
etc. Their "Today" counterparts are; again in my
humble opinion only, Groupon, Zillow, and Zynga.
I would NOT buy Silver Coins, or gold, with your
money, that alone mine, BUT i do consider their
risk factor to be lower than at least one or two
of those three mentioned above. Support at $1.00
for silver exceeds support at a theoretical $0.01
for "VJ" candidates. If silver bugs and gold bugs
want a "near-cinch", again in my opinion only,
SHORT treasuries with an 18 months time horizon.
I would put 10% short in 3 to 7 year maturities,
and 10% short in maturities from 7 to 30 years.
That ought to be more profitable than long Gold
or Silver at inflated prices.