Seeking Alpha

JG2000

JG2000
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View JG2000's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Update: Apple's HealthKit Seeing Early Adoptions [View article]
    @surf, I have a Heathkit 7-segment-neon digital clock on my TV stand that is around 40 years old...still works perfectly. Technology has long since surpassed 99% of the old Heathkits, but I haven't found a table clock I like better for low light readability without being at all intrusive.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay Won't Drive Much Direct Revenue, But It Could Boost iPhone Loyalty [View article]
    The revenue per transaction being touted is .15 percent of the charge, so this would be 15 cents per $100 dollars (.0015 x $100 = .15 dollars = 15 cents). We don't know for sure this is the number but it seems to be the most reasonable assumption at this point. The worldwide yearly transaction volume on Visa and MasterCard is reported to be somewhere around 5 trillion dollars. So if Apple Pay was used in 100% of the transactions at .0015 per ... that comes to 7.5 billion dollars per year. If Apply Pay got 10% of these (an awfully ambitious number but let's use it as a longer term fun example) they would get 750 million in high margin revenue.

    I like the probable impact of Apple Pay on iPhone retention, customer satisfaction & even market share gain. It's a truly great thing but not a direct huge earnings booster by any credible means that I am aware of (though happy to be proved wrong).
    Nov 16, 2014. 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Apple Bully GT Advanced Technologies? [View article]
    Usually when people talk about big companies playing hardball with suppliers it's for discounting on services or physical deliverables THAT ARE DELIVERED. In this case it appears GTAT was unable to deliver anything remotely usable by Apple. It does get a little murky in the fact that there were aspects of joint effort but clearly GTAT and Apple felt that the odds were good enough to proceed initially. The comments and actions of Squiller/GTAT before the deal fell apart publicly suggest they knew things were going badly. That's a tough place to be in but they clearly screwed their investors. If I were to be critical of Apple it's for apparent lack of savvy in going for the deal in the first place (granted, hindsight is always brilliant and innovation requires risk taking).
    Nov 11, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Chance Apple Pay Will Disrupt The Payments Ecosystem [View article]
    @odspan, you mention something important few people discussing Apple Pay do...the paper receipt versus on-phone-receipt. As a user I absolutely hate collecting and disposing of credit card receipts. In fact, to me, it's at least as much of a benefit as avoiding the card swipe and signature or pin!
    Nov 10, 2014. 07:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Chance Apple Pay Will Disrupt The Payments Ecosystem [View article]
    The importance of Apple Pay is to the current and future generation iPhone users convenience/security..... not, in my view, to create some new massive independent revenue stream or change the underlying payment landscape. In a few years the majority of iPhone owners will have NFC-enabled iPhones. The main Apple Pay barrier-to-entry is the presence of NFC-enabled point-of-sale terminals that do not block Apple Pay. I think the blocking issue will go away or be radically reduced over time as will the number of non-NFC-supporting checkout stations. Once this occurs Apple Pay will be a huge convenience for iPhone owners (6 and beyond).

    The fact that Apple Pay may not grow into a complete independent service devoid of Visa/Mastercard should not be viewed as a negative as this was never, in my view, it's mission. It's mission is to improve the iPhone ownership experience and over time it will do that significantly.
    Nov 10, 2014. 07:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Sustain Advancements In Future iPhone Generations? [View article]
    As long as Apple is able to continue to create the best phone possible at [often] a higher price point they can continue to own a big slice of the premium segment. Their ace-in-the-hole is that they can use higher cost components if needed and charge more if needed. That factor, in my view, is more reliable than counting on innovation...which will no doubt occur...but not consistently and reliably as the sole factor in leadership. This is the answer to those that correctly point out Apple has not, nor can it, massively out innovate on every iteration of the phone.

    It's somewhat like the situation with BMW...they have a better product but they charge a significant premium for it. The difference for phones is that a premium featured & priced product need not be a huge extra outlay in cost to get the best (a 50% higher sales price on a $40k car is an extra $20k...a 50% boost on a $500 phone is $250). In other words the relative low cost of the product category relative to the perceived benefit allows for a larger class of premium owners. Due to branding, momentum, engineering team, resources and company ethos...this is a sustainable moat if Apple executes properly. The sporadic major innovations add to the story but are not consistently required.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Apple Pay [View article]
    I like the enthusiasm and out-of-the-box thinking, but even if [and it's a big IF] Apple could become an effective credit-network/bank -- the cost/benefit ratio does not look that attractive to me. Under 'costs'...besides massive time, effort, money...you have banking-risks, branding-risks, regulation-risks and distraction-risks. Wouldn't all that energy be better utilized creating great products that leverage Apple's core competencies?
    Nov 7, 2014. 05:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Apple Pay [View article]
    @rwelchk17, the people that use Apple Pay are people that would be carrying around an iPhone ANYWAY...so where is the EXTRA burden in pocketing, theft and cost that you refer to?
    Nov 7, 2014. 05:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pouring A Little Cold Water On Apple Investors [View article]
    For Apple Pay the more important factor is to be just one more reason to stay or join the iPhone user base. The direct revenue/earnings gains are just gravy...and eventually it could be a LOT of extra gravy (but not something baked into near term forecasts). So Apple Pay has much upside and little downside.

    No one really knows how well the Watch will do and predictions are all over the map. To me it has the feel of the iPod before it caught on. One thing is for sure...Apple put a ton of effort into the Watch and the actual product, to the limited extent we know, is impressive. I do think this category could catch fire with Apple leading the pack. Because first-year expectations are tempered this also has more upside than downside.
    Nov 5, 2014. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay Looks Vastly Better Positioned Than MCX [View article]
    If we assume that the MCX merchants will continue to accept "standard" credit cards [which, if not, would be sheer suicide for them] then I have a question. But first some background. There is a migration of credit cards to the chip based tokenization system (either with or without NFC...for example the AmEx cards, so I am told, do not do NFC). The MCX merchants will presumably feel they need to support some or all of the newer plastic-chip solutions, not because they won't try to steer people to their fee-reduced CurrentC system...but because they must know that a sizable number of customers will pay with various flavors of pure plastic or find somewhere else to shop. At least that is my premise of this post (or please explain why not).

    Now on to my question. Will the chip-based credit cards that support NFC be able to work with the MCX retailers that support general credit card use? If they have to support NFC to make the newer plastic cards work then they seem to be back at square one where Apple Pay works too. However, if the NFC-supporting plastic cards also work in a non-NFC-mode then maybe the merchants can support plastic without supporting Apple Pay(?) In that scenario customers would insert a card into a slot (or similar) and enter a pin or signature if required (similar to the current card swipe except instead of the 'swipe' it's more like an ATM slot).

    I think Apple Pay is a winner but my question above explores to what extent MCX merchants can survive at all without supporting NFC. Maybe somewhat, maybe not at all.
    Nov 1, 2014. 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opaque Transparency: Dissecting Apple's FY 2015 Reporting Changes [View article]
    My expectation is that if the watch is successful they will eventually want to break out some of the numbers such as unit volume and ASP...but this could be a year or two down the road. We can be sure the press will attempt to be all over the watch uptake so if it's a slow initial uptake there will be many bogus attempts to portray the watch as an epic fail. In that scenario shielding the results reduces the negative feedback loop during its infancy. I expect the watch to be a hit but it's hard to anticipate how it will ramp.
    Oct 29, 2014. 04:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's True, Apple Is About To Crush Microsoft With Business Customers [View article]
    If all they need is a browser then the iPad looks pretty good. Many enterprise apps will require [or benefit from] a screen larger than a phone. You can argue about cheaper tablets but when you factor in the ease-of-development, reliability, consistent software updates, lack of bloatware, reduced virus threat and residual values....the iPad is the best tablet choice.
    Oct 23, 2014. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple/GT Advanced Technologies Settlement: Ending The Madness [View article]
    My take is that GTAT was content to take the big risk on producing the phone sapphire with the prospect to hit a home run if it worked out. Given that GTAT is the expert on the sapphire [at least relative to Apple] and given some shady looking GTAT reporting and stock sales...it seems likely that GTAT willingly and knowingly decided to bet the farm and convinced Apple the prospects were good. Apple decided to take a chance knowing they had a good backup plan. These are the kind of risks Apple should take from time to time (given that they will work out some percentage).
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay Hoopla Shows We Have Hit Peak Apple [View article]
    Even if Apple Pay is over hyped (which I don't think it is) what on earth does the expectations for this relatively small piece of the business have to do with an Apple peak? It's not like the stock got a nice boost from the Apple Pay story that one could then argue is unwarranted. The premise makes no sense at all.
    Oct 22, 2014. 04:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Notable earnings after Monday‚Äôs close [View news story]
    It sounds like this is about or related to the Globalfoundries handoff but the fact that they also want to report early is interesting. It may be that they feel they can't wait to clarify the chip business transition and they just want to get ahead of all the potential speculation.
    Oct 19, 2014. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
451 Comments
656 Likes