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  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Analyst ratings on Yahoo Finance have 39 bullish and 3 bearish (12 hold). Jon Najarian is bullish on AAPL and he's smarter than Adami. I don't think the big funds put too much stock in the much looking backward and CYA (or just bizarre like Standpoint).
    Jan 8, 2014. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    One possibility is that margins are a little soft even if revenue, earnings and iPhone/iPad volumes are a blowout. If this were the case I can imagine Apple not raising guidance because they know how the market reacts (overreacts) to margin pressure. I'd like to be wrong on this but it's the one explanation that seems plausible.
    Jan 8, 2014. 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    It's an interesting graph. The stock is a better value when the cash flow is up and the share price is down...all other things being equal. But it's those other pesky things like projected growth that greatly affect the price. For example, if the price is low and hence the FCFY is high it looks like an attractive buy but if the price is low because of lower forecast earnings expectation then that high FCFY would not necessarily be something to rejoice over.

    I do agree that AAPL is a solid buy for 2014 if we get decent China Mobile growth and a well received iPhone 6. As far as the January earnings call I think the market expects somewhat of a blowout so it may need to include inline or better margins as well as a good forecast to get a good short term pop. I don't expect the margins to be bad but I really don't know how they will meet market expectations; it's the big wild card in my book and needs to be good to prevent a short term "sell the news" (since AAPL gets little market love these days).
    Jan 8, 2014. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    DanoX, the iPhone 5c was not the cheaper phone the so-called experts were asking for (rather it was the very slightly cheaper repackaged iPhone 5 that would have sold anyway as a back rev phone). But that is a totally separate issue from screen size. Some compelling arguments have been made for why a larger phone makes sense...your argument so far is "it won't do anything" and "it's a waste" ....your argument could use some detail.
    Jan 7, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Panic Time Already? [View article]
    How do you conclude the deal "turned out to be a dud so far" before the pricing is announced and sales have even started? If you are basing it on the so called pre orders see my other comment.
    Jan 7, 2014. 08:17 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Panic Time Already? [View article]
    Isn't the China Mobile iPhone pricing not released yet? It's my understanding that the so called CHL iPhone pre orders are not an actual order of a phone (given the unknown pricing)'s a request for more information or to get contacted for marketing purposes. I keep seeing articles mentioning concern about the low pre orders and this is beyond silly if my understanding about what the pre orders mean is correct. Perhaps someone that can access and read the pre order website can comment.
    Jan 7, 2014. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    If a larger phone increases market share and earnings substantially I think you would agree it's a good decision. If it doesn't, then I will just admit I am wrong. But I think Apple does pretty good research and would not release a larger phone unless it makes business and functional sense (similar to the iPad mini adding a second size). Ask yourself this, if Apple had only released an iPad mini, never the larger iPad, would you now be arguing an iPad Air makes no sense?

    The reasons for a large phone have been well articulated (older eyes, heavy consumers of mobile/game content, one-device families...especially in EM, etc). I agree with the idea of looking at the ratio of sales between sizes as being a barometer of validation; the break-even point is partly a function of how much can be shared between the sizes.
    Jan 6, 2014. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple cut to Sell at Standpoint over moral reasons [View news story]
    I just saw a CNBC video clip of this analyst; he seemed like he was about to have a breakdown. He didn't have detailed wage information, just using varying reports on the internet. He mainly is railing against income disparity in the world. Obviously he decided to pick on Apple due to it's visibility but he picked a company that has tried to do more than most for worker conditions at its China contractors. This should have zero impact on the stock once a few HFT algos finished doing their thing this morning.
    Jan 6, 2014. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple cut to Sell at Standpoint over moral reasons [View news story]
    Newsflash: Standpoint Research cut to sell at my house over moron reasoning.
    Jan 6, 2014. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Has A Shot At Winning Apple [View article]
    In this context are we assuming 'released' means shipping...or just that the design is frozen and released to production?
    Jan 6, 2014. 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    Whenever the issue is brought up of a larger iPhone I see a lot of replies by people who, because they personally don't want a larger phone, seem to think none else does either (or should). I don't understand that logic and it flies in the face of the iPad/mini multi-size win. So I largely agree with the article that a larger phone is essential; ideally 2 sizes with one retaining approximately the current level of compactness.

    An iTV or something else really new & big could compensate for the larger phone but I would argue that the phone issue will show us if Apple really wants to compete forcefully in the high end phone market. If they don't it creates a pretty big headwind in spite of the many other huge positives.

    Let's keep in mind that all evidence and logic suggests they WILL introduce a larger phone and, if so, I am in the camp that anticipates some impressive market share gain.
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. tech giants enjoy U.K. "tax bonanza" [View news story]
    Corporations are ultimately owned by individuals (with a few exceptions for government owned entities). Therefore asking companies to "be more socially responsible" and ignore legal tax breaks/loopholes is really asking the owning individuals to donate more money to their governments. If you subscribe to that philosophy then why not just cut out the middleman and ask individuals to ignore legal tax breaks and voluntarily pay higher taxes?
    Jan 5, 2014. 09:09 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tizen Is Intel's Plan B For Mobile Versus Apple [View article]
    But why does Samsung offering Tiezen increase the market size? That seems like saying if Apple created a new OS they would sell more iPhones. Apple doesn't compete in the cheap-phone space but perhaps you meant slightly cheaper premium Samsung phones.

    I don't see why Tiezen helps them create a cheaper premium phone -- if anything it costs them more in software development and support. It would protect them from a surprise broadside by Google going all out to take over the Android hardware profits...but that does not sell more phones. If Samsung can create it's own thriving app store that would be accretive but they would be battling for Android/IOS developers...again the chicken/egg problem although perhaps not insurmountable given their strong market share presence.
    Jan 3, 2014. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Bounce, But Buyers Be Patient [View article]
    I agree with the concerns discussed. The only really positive scenario w.r.t. guidance is that Apple both blows out earnings AND somehow convinces the street that there was a very unusual and unique reason why they didn't raise guidance that is not likely to be repeated in the future. It may be a stretch to think they could make such a convincing argument...just pointing out it is the only scenario where they could thread the needle on this issue.

    My guess is that in spite of the blowout in iphone/ipad volumes the margins were just a little soft or they decided to steer an unexpected hit on expenses (new campus?). I could, of course, be completely wrong and Apple will post a blowout on all fronts...however this creates the future headwind that Humble Eagles so aptly described.
    Jan 3, 2014. 07:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tizen Is Intel's Plan B For Mobile Versus Apple [View article]
    Tiezen, if it could be successful, seems more a threat to Google and Microsoft than Apple. If Tiezen really is effective at utilizing Android apps then it mainly would be a competitor for a slice of the Android pie. If it is not effective at utilizing Android apps then it faces the chicken/egg dilemma with apps.

    I understand why Samsung wants to eliminate it's dependence on Google/Android OS...but the argument that this is mainly a threat Apple seems a wild leap in logic.
    Jan 3, 2014. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment