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JG2000

JG2000
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  • Insiders Are Selling Apple [View article]
    A few observations/questions:
    1. The number of AAPL insider shares sold is trending downward sharply since mid year (according to your chart). One might infer from that a bullish trend.
    2. The number of shares sold is small.
    3. Of the SVP & VP shares sold:
    a. When were the options expiring?
    b. Are any of these people planning to retire or leave?
    c. What new options are pending for these people?

    Insider selling can mean something but small volumes looked at in a vacuum without context is not a great idea.
    Nov 9, 2013. 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Need To Take Advantage Of Any Near-Term Weakness In Apple's Share Price [View article]
    Another way to say what you are saying is that a stock split would boost the market cap -- an argument made by many in the past; especially when the trajectory was steeper. There is no doubt this would have a positive psychological effect on casual retail investors and also lower the floor on options entry. However, institutional investors understand basic math and would not really be impacted.

    The bottom line is that the price/share factor is not likely to get any attention unless the stock heads to the stratosphere. It might be a slight negative to market cap (due mainly to psychological factors) but is so much less important to the share price than earnings, margins, use of cash, and perceived innovation...that it's almost lost in the noise.
    Nov 5, 2013. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPad Mini Retina Vs. iPad Air: Apple's Product Line Diversification [View article]
    The discussion of the higher pixel density of the retina mini is missing a few points. Firstly, the same number of pixels allows the same apps & graphics scaling across the iPad Air & retina mini. Secondly, although the mini retina has a higher pixel density, it's not clear this is really a visible [or at least notable] difference for many people/apps at normal viewing distances. I haven't actually seen the mini retina in person so I will withhold final judgement.

    Looking at the iPad shipment growth deep into a product-refresh lull is not all that interesting unless Apple fails to regain ground in FQ1/Q2.
    Nov 5, 2013. 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still No. 1 But Slipping Fast [View article]
    Sales taper before major releases and the current one is an extreme case of a longer major-update cycle. Let's compare market share a quarter or two from now. I would agree that competitors like Samsung are significant but the combination of rebounding market share with Apple's dominance in profit-share make it a tour de force.
    Nov 1, 2013. 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Competition Threatens Apple In 2014 [View article]
    This article fails, among other things, to recognize the impact that a larger iPhone 6 is going to have on market share and earnings in 2014. Either that or I am going to be very disappointed in iPhone 6 (but I think that extremely unlikely). I will concede it's difficult to predict the degree of impact on market share but to not consider this as both a current major market-share inhibitor, and as future market share gainer...is really missing the boat in 2014 analysis.
    Oct 31, 2013. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Going To Be An iPad Christmas [View article]
    It's too bad the mini retina will likely be very supply limited because if not this would be the ultimate blowout iPad quarter. As it is, it will be very good -- we just can't be quite as exuberant. Fortunately much of the unfulfilled demand will boost FQ2.
    Oct 31, 2013. 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Hit Apple's EPS For The Second Quarter In A Row - Here Are My Initial December Quarter Estimates [View article]
    I like what you are saying but I'd have doubts they could produce that many phones by years end given the current backlog. However, if not, and CHL comes on strong, then I would expect a blowout FQ2 as supply/demand comes into balance.
    Oct 30, 2013. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Hit Apple's EPS For The Second Quarter In A Row - Here Are My Initial December Quarter Estimates [View article]
    Besides a strong FQ1 virtually guaranteed -- a CHL deal and a large screen iPhone 6 option seems likely to get 2014 earnings back above $40. I wouldn't quite call it a slam-dunk but it looks straightforward barring a misstep (i.e does not require a new TV product although that could be additive). The buybacks, of course, will boost eps further but I'm more focused on absolute earnings (the eps will follow).
    Oct 30, 2013. 06:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Beats But Treated As Second Class [View article]
    Fiscal Q1 is setup to be a blowout unless supply constraints prove severe (in which case fiscal Q2 will benefit). In 2014 iPhone 6 is set to gain substantial market share with a large phone option and we will get a China Mobile deal. We are finally likely to get a TV product. Although there are other catalysts...with these factors alone (and buybacks) eps will be up well above $40 a share annually.
    Oct 28, 2013. 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Time To Take Profits As It Cedes Computing Market To Google [View article]
    The bear case focusing on declining iPhone market share does not account for the forthcoming iPhone 6 with a larger display (or two sizes). This article also under estimates the 5s but lets look further ahead. I believe non-trivial market share has been ceded due to screen size. This will be rectified next year (98% confidence). Note that while profit-share trumps market share...market share still matters when not viewed in a vacuum.

    The bottom line is that Apple will see a significant market-share gain with iPhone 6 while retaining enough margin that the net effect will be very positive for earnings.
    Oct 26, 2013. 05:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Send Delusional Carl Icahn Packing [View article]
    For the moment I'm keeping an open mind on Icahn's involvement. In the long term it will either be a plus by his helping to unlock value to all investors...or a negative by causing unproductive conflict and distraction.
    Oct 25, 2013. 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is In Deep Trouble: A Reformed Bull Speaks Out [View article]
    On what basis is the claim that Apple no longer innovates? This is a tired and repeated argument that doesn't have much ground to stand on until Apple fails to innovate AT THEIR PAST HISTORICAL RATE. Let's take a look:
    2001 ipod
    2007 iphone
    2010 ipad
    It was 6 years of what people are now calling "no innovation" between iPod and iPhone. Was Apple a "no innovation" company in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006? It's now been around 3 years since the last major innovation which was the shortest innovation interval in the past (iPhone to iPad). So you can argue Apple is due sometime soon or could still have several years and be on historical trend.

    We are likely to see a TV in 2014 that may define the next innovation cycle. A wrist device is anticipated. We don't know all of what Apple is working on. If you believe innovation died with Steve Jobs then you can make that argument but let's not pretend otherwise the "no innovation" argument is anything but delusional unless we see several more years without a major new product segment from Apple.
    Oct 24, 2013. 04:22 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New iPads Are Out And They Are Gorgeous: Sell The News [View article]
    The short term key will be Apple's Q1 forecast and if they get analyst upgrades following. I'm bullish even in the face of the sell-the-news phenomenon which often does play out in short timeframes. Apple is also a momentum stock and currently the momentum is favoring the upside. Supporting this is a very strong iPhone cycle and holiday iPad lineup.
    Oct 23, 2013. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Products Give Investors New Hope [View article]
    There is a cottage industry of talking heads that are going to call ANY update of an existing Apple product "disappointing". Ignore them unless they have a very specific and at least arguable point.

    I can understand some concern about the mini pricing but I think it's actually brilliant...especially given the likely early supply constraints. Yes, there are going to be some lost sales for people whose priority is a low price point but Apple does not need to get in a race to the bottom. Apple's strength is in creating premium products and selling them to people that appreciate those premium products and can afford them. The lower sales, especially in emerging markets, will be somewhat offset by the retention of the aspirational brand and the GROWING financial cream of those emerging markets choosing Apple.
    Oct 23, 2013. 06:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retina iPad Mini launched, prices start at $399 [View news story]
    Regarding the mini retina pricing...the demand at the $399 price point is still very likely to exceed supply into 2014. In fact they will probably start selling for a premium on ebay for a while. When you factor in the quality, the resale value and the cheaper or free software upgrades -- the value is there if you can afford it and like the ecosystem.
    Oct 22, 2013. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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