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JG2000

JG2000
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  • Apple: Panic Time Already? [View article]
    Isn't the China Mobile iPhone pricing not released yet? It's my understanding that the so called CHL iPhone pre orders are not an actual order of a phone (given the unknown pricing)...it's a request for more information or to get contacted for marketing purposes. I keep seeing articles mentioning concern about the low pre orders and this is beyond silly if my understanding about what the pre orders mean is correct. Perhaps someone that can access and read the pre order website can comment.
    Jan 7 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    If a larger phone increases market share and earnings substantially I think you would agree it's a good decision. If it doesn't, then I will just admit I am wrong. But I think Apple does pretty good research and would not release a larger phone unless it makes business and functional sense (similar to the iPad mini adding a second size). Ask yourself this, if Apple had only released an iPad mini, never the larger iPad, would you now be arguing an iPad Air makes no sense?

    The reasons for a large phone have been well articulated (older eyes, heavy consumers of mobile/game content, one-device families...especially in EM, etc). I agree with the idea of looking at the ratio of sales between sizes as being a barometer of validation; the break-even point is partly a function of how much can be shared between the sizes.
    Jan 6 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple cut to Sell at Standpoint over moral reasons [View news story]
    I just saw a CNBC video clip of this analyst; he seemed like he was about to have a breakdown. He didn't have detailed wage information, just using varying reports on the internet. He mainly is railing against income disparity in the world. Obviously he decided to pick on Apple due to it's visibility but he picked a company that has tried to do more than most for worker conditions at its China contractors. This should have zero impact on the stock once a few HFT algos finished doing their thing this morning.
    Jan 6 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple cut to Sell at Standpoint over moral reasons [View news story]
    Newsflash: Standpoint Research cut to sell at my house over moron reasoning.
    Jan 6 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Has A Shot At Winning Apple [View article]
    In this context are we assuming 'released' means shipping...or just that the design is frozen and released to production?
    Jan 6 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    Whenever the issue is brought up of a larger iPhone I see a lot of replies by people who, because they personally don't want a larger phone, seem to think none else does either (or should). I don't understand that logic and it flies in the face of the iPad/mini multi-size win. So I largely agree with the article that a larger phone is essential; ideally 2 sizes with one retaining approximately the current level of compactness.

    An iTV or something else really new & big could compensate for the larger phone but I would argue that the phone issue will show us if Apple really wants to compete forcefully in the high end phone market. If they don't it creates a pretty big headwind in spite of the many other huge positives.

    Let's keep in mind that all evidence and logic suggests they WILL introduce a larger phone and, if so, I am in the camp that anticipates some impressive market share gain.
    Jan 6 01:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. tech giants enjoy U.K. "tax bonanza" [View news story]
    Corporations are ultimately owned by individuals (with a few exceptions for government owned entities). Therefore asking companies to "be more socially responsible" and ignore legal tax breaks/loopholes is really asking the owning individuals to donate more money to their governments. If you subscribe to that philosophy then why not just cut out the middleman and ask individuals to ignore legal tax breaks and voluntarily pay higher taxes?
    Jan 5 09:09 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tizen Is Intel's Plan B For Mobile Versus Apple [View article]
    But why does Samsung offering Tiezen increase the market size? That seems like saying if Apple created a new OS they would sell more iPhones. Apple doesn't compete in the cheap-phone space but perhaps you meant slightly cheaper premium Samsung phones.

    I don't see why Tiezen helps them create a cheaper premium phone -- if anything it costs them more in software development and support. It would protect them from a surprise broadside by Google going all out to take over the Android hardware profits...but that does not sell more phones. If Samsung can create it's own thriving app store that would be accretive but they would be battling for Android/IOS developers...again the chicken/egg problem although perhaps not insurmountable given their strong market share presence.
    Jan 3 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Bounce, But Buyers Be Patient [View article]
    I agree with the concerns discussed. The only really positive scenario w.r.t. guidance is that Apple both blows out earnings AND somehow convinces the street that there was a very unusual and unique reason why they didn't raise guidance that is not likely to be repeated in the future. It may be a stretch to think they could make such a convincing argument...just pointing out it is the only scenario where they could thread the needle on this issue.

    My guess is that in spite of the blowout in iphone/ipad volumes the margins were just a little soft or they decided to steer an unexpected hit on expenses (new campus?). I could, of course, be completely wrong and Apple will post a blowout on all fronts...however this creates the future headwind that Humble Eagles so aptly described.
    Jan 3 07:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tizen Is Intel's Plan B For Mobile Versus Apple [View article]
    Tiezen, if it could be successful, seems more a threat to Google and Microsoft than Apple. If Tiezen really is effective at utilizing Android apps then it mainly would be a competitor for a slice of the Android pie. If it is not effective at utilizing Android apps then it faces the chicken/egg dilemma with apps.

    I understand why Samsung wants to eliminate it's dependence on Google/Android OS...but the argument that this is mainly a threat Apple seems a wild leap in logic.
    Jan 3 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Unlock 68% More Value By Emulating Google In This Way [View article]
    Interesting discussion. One thing rarely discussed is what the motivation and goals inside Apple are...to the extent they retain the Steve Jobs imprint. I think Jobs wanted to create great perfection-seeking products that changed the world...but the reward for doing so (e.g. money/stock performance) was more as a report card and and means to further create. The financial reward was a means to the end...not the end goal itself.

    In fairness few successful companies think only about the rewards...they all have a level of passion about what they are doing...it's just a matter of degree. The Jobs vision was just more extreme on the perfectionist creation side. It shows in the actual products. I presume much of this culture remains at Apple and is perpetuated. Given this fact [if you agree] we can ask if this is good for Apple investors.

    I would argue that as long as Apple is creating great stuff and expanding (even slowly) then this paradigm can work well for investors. The great stuff tends to create great rewards and it's a feedback loop. If a point is reached where things stall due to market saturation, lack of creativity, etc, then this approach can start to work against you because less emphasis is spent on financial issues or managing market perception. I don't know when [or even if] they will hit stall speed but I don't see it in the next year. Given that, I think patience here will be rewarded.
    Jan 2 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Screwed Up Big Time [View article]
    I recall reading that Apple got locked into these displays because they needed to pick a technology to meet design, contract & volume criteria. In retrospect it may not have been the best choice but the quality/reliability is still excellent.

    If this is really a legitimate concern we should expect Apple to upgrade the displays in future iPads. In the hardware arms race you always have competitors leap frogging (such as 64-bit) and it will probably be Apple's turn soon on the displays. If Apple feels the displays are inferior they may not admit it publicly but I believe they would be extremely motivated to rectify (I don't believe they just decided to "cheap out"). Clearly they have the dollars to invest if needed and they can charge top dollar for their products...therefore this does not concern me much as an ongoing problem but is worth monitoring. I don't see it as enough of an issue to affect an investment thesis at this time,
    Jan 1 07:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple: I Maintain My High Price Target, And Here's Why [View article]
    I suppose BMW is losing market share every time a big shipment of Hyundai's are sold but it doesn't seem to affect their customers or profits. For Apple, profit-share trumps market-share.

    Market share isn't completely immaterial, especially as it relates to premium-segment competitors but lets discuss when the FQ1 numbers are released. The bearish market share discussion usually focuses on the period before the first full release quarter (for new iPhones) when share is at a low point. I do think Apple has wasted some market share with slow movement to a larger screen phone but that should get fixed with iPhone 6 (or if not, I will turn less bullish).
    Dec 31 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wedge Partners offers cautious China Mobile iPhone estimates [View news story]
    The rubber will really meet the road when CHL announces it's iPhone subsidy/pricing. Meanwhile, though, I would say that anyone not presuming an impactful CHL upside to AAPL would carry an umbrella hiking the Sahara desert.
    Dec 31 04:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    As a very short term January play we are left pondering which of these 2 forces are greater:
    a) Anticipation of blowout FQ1 results and decent FQ2 forecast.
    b) Typical "Sell the good news" effect and significant gains off the recent bottom.

    My take on this time window (notwithstanding my more bullish outlook on 2014 as a whole due to larger iPhone 6 and greater China penetration, buybacks, etc) is that these forces could be somewhat in equilibrium and that makes short term decisions tenuous. The stock will probably be quite sensitive to January news flow pre earnings (from Apple or CHL or competition or overall market). The stock could also take on a momentum trade (up or down)...the herd is easily spooked at this time of year.
    Dec 30 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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