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JG2000

JG2000
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  • Apple: Already Too Late To The Phablet Market [View article]
    Radar, the sapphire-to-the-edges is a good theory. It does bring up some question marks such as shatter-resistance, production capacity and cost. I'm not too concerned about the shatter-resistance as I trust Apple to evaluate this and make the right call. Also glass tends to crack from scratch weakness which sapphire will largely prevent. The extra cost could impact margins or get passed along to the consumer (which could be ok if the phone is viewed as sufficiently superior to anything else out there). It will be interesting to see how this tantalizing prospect plays out.
    Apr 8, 2014. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Already Too Late To The Phablet Market [View article]
    I have doubts Apple will release two phone sizes this year...it just seems like too big a leap from their normal pattern (happy to be proven wrong). It's kind of sad to see phone market share discarded so needlessly (and rather cavalierly on the face of it).

    Having said that I do expect the iPhone 6 (4.7-ish size) to be a hit. Hopefully they can shrink the screen borders so the total physical size does not alienate the small-phone lovers (but this could be dicey).
    Apr 8, 2014. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    If Apple wants to go big wouldn't it make more sense to acquire content rather than old-school delivery? Apple's "delivery neutrality" is part of their strength. A partnership could [and may] achieve some of the benefits ascribed without the headaches, risk, and distraction of cable ownership.
    Apr 7, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 3 Specific Reasons I'm Still Bullish [View article]
    Lithium-ion batteries in the iPhone do not overcharge (nor do they in any reasonably designed non-Apple product). The charging is handled by a small circuit that measures voltage and cuts off the charging when the battery is fully charged (i.e. when it reaches the proper voltage). If you leave the battery on the charger for an extended time the normal battery leakage, even if powered off, will eventually cause the charger to cycle on-and-off to keep the battery topped off.

    Note that there are some iPhone battery apps that have been reported as showing "overcharge". These are snake-oil and completely bogus. Some simple internet searches will confirm this.
    Apr 3, 2014. 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Very Strong Demand For Mac Pro 2014 [View article]
    It's hard to know how much of the delays are due to ramping US manufacturing or new high end vendor parts...I suspect both. Probably Apple felt the new Pro was way overdue and really wanted to get it out there in spite of anticipated delays.

    The availability annoyance is somewhat offset by the knowledge that a great overdue product is completed and trickling out the pipeline. I think there is more tolerance for a high-end low-volume product like the Pro...less so for higher volume products like the iPhone and iPad.
    Apr 2, 2014. 09:02 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: No To iWatch This Year [View article]
    My opinion is that if the iWatch turns out to be something close to a typical digital watch in form factor...then it better have some truly spectacular features that override many peoples reluctance to wear something a bit bulky on their wrists. My preference [for my own use] would be for the device to be very compact and be more of a "wrist band" like the Jawbone Up but flatter. It could have some type of very minimal visual communication such as a few leds or an extremely tiny scrolling display.

    The fact that people refer to this thing/category as the "iWatch" does not, in my mind, preclude various minimalist wrist devices. It's been noted that Tim Cook wears a Nike fuel band and is a bit of a fitness buff.
    Mar 31, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: No To iWatch This Year [View article]
    Apple needs a new [well received] product segment in order to demonstrate that it still has sufficient innovation mojo to propel the stock and the brand forward in a sustainable way. If an iWatch were to be well received it would help that cause even if the direct impact to the top and bottom lines were small. Apple has enough resources to work on new products without hampering the needed investments into improving existing products (iPhone, iPad, etc).

    There appears to be a camp that feels that ANY wrist-wearable device will be a flop but I have more faith in both Apple and the category to be that negative (perhaps in part because I wear a Jawbone Up).
    Mar 31, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pac Crest upgrades Apple on iPhone 6 hopes [View news story]
    Perhaps because converting a bear who becomes a bull based on specific anticipated future events has a special credibility that may be lacking in analysts with a more consistent but doctrinaire approach. His track record and logic of his argument both matter too, of course, so you get to decide what is relevant.
    Mar 11, 2014. 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • German court dismisses €1.57B lawsuit vs Apple [View news story]
    Score 1 for Apple, but getting rid of bogus patent trolls is a game of wack-a-mole.
    Feb 28, 2014. 06:36 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Battle For The Wrist: Galaxy Gear Vs. iWatch [View article]
    I find it interesting that many drill into the features of the Galaxy Gear watch in an attempt to get a handle on why it's not so popular. Why even bother digging that deep when it fails right on the surface -- it's just too big and clunky and wearing one is like walking around with "geek" tattooed on your forehead. I have no doubt whatsoever that Apple realizes a big geeky wrist device is not going to cut it. Creating a device with sufficient power AND miniaturization/style is not easy which I believe is one reason why the iWatch is slow in coming (and with good justification...racing a half-baked device to market does not serve a useful purpose).
    Feb 20, 2014. 09:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ecosystems Play Is Expanding, Which Is Bullish For Apple [View article]
    It will be interesting to see how the soon to be released version of Microsoft Office for iPad plays out (native, touch version). Microsoft will no doubt want to release versions for Android also so the higher focus on one or the other would be suggestive. My assumption is that the iPad's higher-end user base and single flavor OS makes it the most attractive port (combined with user base size...even though Android is larger).

    Although this is only one, perhaps small, element of the ecosystem discussion it looks to be suggestive of relative strengths.
    Feb 18, 2014. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Overview: No Apple iPad Killer [View article]
    Almost everyone that wants a tablet wants an iPad unless they can't afford the initial cost or are married to the Android eco-ad-spam-system. The iPad is hardly more expensive if you upgrade every now and then (due to much better resale value).
    Feb 18, 2014. 05:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Emulate Gold's Plunge? [View article]
    If the iPhone 6 is a hit (likely) and we get one well received new product or service (e.g. iWatch or e-commerce) the stock will likely get above $600 this year. If the larger phone is not a major hit and the new product/service is not well received or doesn't happen then I think the stock will drop below $500. There is some middle ground between these extremes where the stock is range bound in the 500's.

    Tim Cook's credibility is on the line to deliver something new and successful this year (partly due to the statements he has made and partly due to the time lapse since the last major innovation). If the next "innovation" slips into 2015 I don't think he will get the benefit of the doubt (by that I mean he would be fighting a sea change in sentiment toward his leadership...not that he couldn't subsequently undo the damage but it becomes an increasingly steep hill to climb).

    At this point talk is getting cheap and while we can analyze to death why AAPL is, or is not, on a sustainable path of greatness...at the end of the day Apple will either deliver on the categories mentioned or it will not. You can make a bullish or bearish bet for 2014 based on your estimation of those outcomes alone. We are at a tipping point.
    Feb 11, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple repurchases $14B of stock in two weeks [View news story]
    I don't see the increased buybacks as eating up notable management time; a few meetings, a couple clicks, and the numbers in the spreadsheet change. I was, however, leaning more toward MB's view on the buybacks being just a temporary juice to the stock...but it's looking like this is being interpreted as management confidence in 2014 innovation/performance so the effect looks to have more staying power.
    Feb 7, 2014. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Don't Panic [View article]
    This is a good balanced view on Apple. Bulls and bears can each layer their own perspectives on top of it -- it's sort of like the bottom layers of a protocol stack. Spot on analysis of the iPhone situation.

    Regarding the TV...as a consumer, I sure would love an Apple version of a TiVo-type DVR box. I would rather pay the hardware costs up front for a premium device and then see Apple leverage their huge server infrastructure to support a free channel guide service rather than have TiVo's monthly fee's (or equivalently...pay my cable service to rent their DVR). TiVo needs those fees because their hardware is subsidized and because they need a reoccurring revenue stream.

    Apple, on the other hand, does not need a direct reoccurring revenue stream from a channel guide service. They would get plenty of added ecosystem leverage and potentially open up or grow income streams a la the Apple TV model. The only challenge I see for this idea is that it would need to be both an internet device and a cable card device (like TiVo). I think the cable companies would rightly fear Apple a lot more than TiVo...not sure they could legally stop it but they could be uncooperative. The other aspect is that, long term, the evolution is probably to internet based service so this could be viewed as a transition product. I still think many millions of internet and cable users would go for it.
    Jan 30, 2014. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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