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JG2000

JG2000
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  • Battle For The Wrist: Galaxy Gear Vs. iWatch [View article]
    I find it interesting that many drill into the features of the Galaxy Gear watch in an attempt to get a handle on why it's not so popular. Why even bother digging that deep when it fails right on the surface -- it's just too big and clunky and wearing one is like walking around with "geek" tattooed on your forehead. I have no doubt whatsoever that Apple realizes a big geeky wrist device is not going to cut it. Creating a device with sufficient power AND miniaturization/style is not easy which I believe is one reason why the iWatch is slow in coming (and with good justification...racing a half-baked device to market does not serve a useful purpose).
    Feb 20, 2014. 09:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ecosystems Play Is Expanding, Which Is Bullish For Apple [View article]
    It will be interesting to see how the soon to be released version of Microsoft Office for iPad plays out (native, touch version). Microsoft will no doubt want to release versions for Android also so the higher focus on one or the other would be suggestive. My assumption is that the iPad's higher-end user base and single flavor OS makes it the most attractive port (combined with user base size...even though Android is larger).

    Although this is only one, perhaps small, element of the ecosystem discussion it looks to be suggestive of relative strengths.
    Feb 18, 2014. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Overview: No Apple iPad Killer [View article]
    Almost everyone that wants a tablet wants an iPad unless they can't afford the initial cost or are married to the Android eco-ad-spam-system. The iPad is hardly more expensive if you upgrade every now and then (due to much better resale value).
    Feb 18, 2014. 05:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Emulate Gold's Plunge? [View article]
    If the iPhone 6 is a hit (likely) and we get one well received new product or service (e.g. iWatch or e-commerce) the stock will likely get above $600 this year. If the larger phone is not a major hit and the new product/service is not well received or doesn't happen then I think the stock will drop below $500. There is some middle ground between these extremes where the stock is range bound in the 500's.

    Tim Cook's credibility is on the line to deliver something new and successful this year (partly due to the statements he has made and partly due to the time lapse since the last major innovation). If the next "innovation" slips into 2015 I don't think he will get the benefit of the doubt (by that I mean he would be fighting a sea change in sentiment toward his leadership...not that he couldn't subsequently undo the damage but it becomes an increasingly steep hill to climb).

    At this point talk is getting cheap and while we can analyze to death why AAPL is, or is not, on a sustainable path of greatness...at the end of the day Apple will either deliver on the categories mentioned or it will not. You can make a bullish or bearish bet for 2014 based on your estimation of those outcomes alone. We are at a tipping point.
    Feb 11, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple repurchases $14B of stock in two weeks [View news story]
    I don't see the increased buybacks as eating up notable management time; a few meetings, a couple clicks, and the numbers in the spreadsheet change. I was, however, leaning more toward MB's view on the buybacks being just a temporary juice to the stock...but it's looking like this is being interpreted as management confidence in 2014 innovation/performance so the effect looks to have more staying power.
    Feb 7, 2014. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Don't Panic [View article]
    This is a good balanced view on Apple. Bulls and bears can each layer their own perspectives on top of it -- it's sort of like the bottom layers of a protocol stack. Spot on analysis of the iPhone situation.

    Regarding the TV...as a consumer, I sure would love an Apple version of a TiVo-type DVR box. I would rather pay the hardware costs up front for a premium device and then see Apple leverage their huge server infrastructure to support a free channel guide service rather than have TiVo's monthly fee's (or equivalently...pay my cable service to rent their DVR). TiVo needs those fees because their hardware is subsidized and because they need a reoccurring revenue stream.

    Apple, on the other hand, does not need a direct reoccurring revenue stream from a channel guide service. They would get plenty of added ecosystem leverage and potentially open up or grow income streams a la the Apple TV model. The only challenge I see for this idea is that it would need to be both an internet device and a cable card device (like TiVo). I think the cable companies would rightly fear Apple a lot more than TiVo...not sure they could legally stop it but they could be uncooperative. The other aspect is that, long term, the evolution is probably to internet based service so this could be viewed as a transition product. I still think many millions of internet and cable users would go for it.
    Jan 30, 2014. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Poised To Disrupt Another Industry [View article]
    Why should people write about what is already known and factored into the stock? It's true that some 'knowns' have different interpretations and so are worth discussing but in general people are seeking to look ahead and make prescient bets based on estimations of future developments. Are you generally more interested in the weather forecast or what happened last week?
    Jan 30, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    Apple really needs some strong innovation; it's an uphill battle at the moment.
    Jan 30, 2014. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Getting Past The Dip [View article]
    I think it proves consumers don't want an only-slightly cheaper phone that is perceived as a low end phone. It doesn't necessarily prove that there isn't a value & design point somewhere between 'premium' and 'cheap' that could work for Apple. However, I think that Apple probably won't go there having been burned by the 5C (and it being arguably a departure from core values).
    Jan 28, 2014. 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Getting Past The Dip [View article]
    MB, regarding cannibalization from a larger iPhone 6, it would seem to be less of an issue in China/EM where the whole argument for a larger phone is because people tend to only want/afford a single device anyway. In the more prosperous demographics I can see it impacting iPad mini a little but almost none for the larger Air (people that chose an Air over a mini certainly won't be happy with a screen smaller than the mini). So while there would no doubt be a little cannibalization I see the impact as small relative to the potential upside of net revenue gain.

    Your point on phone saturation is proving to be more correct than many, myself included, gave you credit for. However, I believe that a larger iPhone 6 has the potential to boost unit volume to the point where Apple can delay the saturation and/or margin issue a bit longer (let's say a couple years). They still will need major needle-moving innovation to pick up the slack at some point. I think we will see some movement in the innovation direction this year, but less sure how needle-moving it will be. Still, even a small add to the top and bottom line and an accompanying boost in innovation mojo sentiment could fortify or boost P/E.

    I am now more open to the idea that Apple could benefit from launching a more value oriented phone without much sacrifice to its principles or premium image. This would be sort of analogous to BMW's 3-series or 1-series vehicles (granted the analogy falls apart when you include 'size' since these are smaller vehicles and we don't want a smaller-screen phone). It's clear we don't want a cheaper [but not that much cheaper] plastic phone a la 5C. What about the Lexus/Toyota model where you use a different branding? The idea would be to proliferate IOS and leverage the services revenue and up sell potentials. I don't think Apple is too open to this idea but if not then it just adds to the urgency for innovation to get financial growth.
    Jan 28, 2014. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take The Emotion Out Of Apple [View article]
    Emotions aside, it mostly comes down to judgment & conviction as to whether Apple can gain market share with CHL and a larger iPhone 6 (without sacrificing margins) and/or launch major needle moving innovation in 2014. Those things look quite difficult but not impossible for Apple. I don't like the look of a topping-out iPhone trend; the EC did turn me less bullish on the phone story...no way to sugar coat it.
    Jan 28, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, but guidance disappoints [View news story]
    Humble, I have to unfortunately agree. The iPhone unit volumes and FQ2 forecast were significantly below expectations in spite of the good FQ1 dollar metrics. I think to remain bullish you have to believe in a disruptive product this year or are just infatuated with the low P/E. Cooks says we are going to get something new, but will it be enough to move the needle?
    Jan 27, 2014. 07:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    The iPhone 6 should test the theory that Apple is losing ground in the premium phone market. I believe they have lost some share more due to screen size rather than a closing of the gap in quality (but the proof will we in the pudding later this year). Meanwhile we have a growing Android fragmentation issue and impending battle between Google and Samsung...this seems likely to work in Apple's favor.
    Jan 24, 2014. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Confessions Of A Closet Fanboy [View article]
    I almost agree with the article EXCEPT I see it as putting the cart before the horse. My perspective is to give Apple the benefit of the doubt and assume that iPhone 6 will be a hit and gain back marketshare. If things are going badly I can always bail out anywhere along the way. The problem with waiting for iPhone 6 to vindicate itself is that by the time that happens you are likely late to the party. You can kind of use that same argument against me and claim I have a similar issue bailing out [late] if it's not working...true enough. So really it comes down to conviction and confidence in Apple's strategy & execution. It's a matter of choosing a strategy based on offense or defense; almost two sides of the same coin.
    Jan 24, 2014. 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's China Mobile Launch Was A Flop [View article]
    What really matters in the short term is what Apple models into their FQ2 forecast for CHL revenue & sales. This could be the biggest factor in how the stock moves post earnings; not that they will break out the CHL portion, but they will make some comments and I think we will be able to infer rather broadly how it factors into the forecast.

    I don't subscribe to the negativity associated with the shallow analysis of the launch but I do think somewhat tempered short term expectations are prudent until we know more (having not gotten any high-fiving from CHL or Apple post launch). Combining that with the Verizon iPhone sales makes me a little more cautious going into earnings. The stock always wants to tank after earnings so unless both the results & forecast are excellent the market negativity could gain hold temporarily. Icahn is providing some short term tailwind to the stock but there is just so long that will last. I'm still optimistic on Apple's 2014 outlook but I'm less sure there won't be some bumps along the way.
    Jan 23, 2014. 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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