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JG2000

JG2000
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  • Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]
    Could I then infer that until "a while" happens...Michael Blair is wrong?
    Dec 3 02:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]
    For 2014 I think the CHL deal and the iPhone 6 should insure market share gains (even if the Galaxy 5 is a hit it will steal from other Android's more than iPhone). You also have the buybacks. So even if (and that's a big IF) the premium phone market is getting close to saturation I still see Apple's phone earnings growing substantially in 2014 unless they really flub the iPhone 6 which is quite unlikely.

    I would also argue that there is enough of a world wide growing wealth effect to help offset or slow the onset of premium market saturation. I don't have figures to back that up but it's something to consider.

    There is nothing wrong with at least considering this articles main point on saturation as a headwind [at some point]. I just see enough tailwinds in the near term to easily net out a positive for 2014.
    Dec 3 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Not Out Of The Woods Yet [View article]
    Good points on the iPhone 6. I believe that 2014 will go down as a pivotal point where either Apple establishes the invincibility of it's phone franchise or it starts to show chinks in the armor. I lean toward the two phone solution as described by Ashraf but Apple could go with just a slightly larger phone as they did going from the 4 to the 5 (a higher risk proposition that could find a sweet spot or could alienate the portion of the current user base that prioritizes compactness). Obviously 'size' is only one element to a phone but it bears higher scrutiny due to it's pivotal impact on many consumers.
    Dec 2 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The Grinch Steal Apple's Christmas? [View article]
    There are two very possible developments in December that could really help add momentum to the stock 1) a guidance upgrade by Apple and 2) a CHL deal. Of course further news/speculation on iPhone & iPad sales will have an impact too. Whatever happens it won't be a boring month for AAPL.
    Dec 2 07:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Breaks Out [View article]
    I hope the CHL deal is announced on Dec 18th but I am not quite as confident as some. Yes, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence and there is little doubt a deal is at least being worked on...but there is the possibility that a final deal could be deferred while the 4G build-out expands and negotiations work through the final kinks. In such a scenario a new Chinese brand or spinoff brand could be the announcement. I do believe Apple will partner with CHL and I think there is a reasonable possibility it will occur in December...I just wouldn't bet the farm on it (I might bet a tractor or two however).
    Nov 27 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo To Apple: Prepare For Weak Holiday Sales [View article]
    Memo to Author: Prepare for Reality To Intrude On Your Musings.

    The higher-end consumer is out buying iPhones & iPads; sales are looking strong by standard metrics that have visibility at this point (availability lag; Apple store traffic; iPhone & iPad activations, etc). From a marketing standpoint I like what they are doing with the pencil add for iPad Air. When availability improves I'd expect a good companion add for the mini retina. The shorter shopping season and some availability limitations will have some impact on FQ1 but it should still be impressive (and demand shifted into the January quarter will bolster that quarter). The CHL deal is another major catalyst on the horizon (likely in December or next quarter).
    Nov 26 10:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    Large revenue and earnings growth would of course be welcomed by Apple bulls but the stock also has room to run by P/E expansion alone. This would likely occur when the market becomes more broadly convinced that Apple has not lost it's sustainable innovation mojo. Such a conviction would not require a big jump in revenue or earnings...rather it could be just from a product that demonstrates innovation capability (such as a well received iWatch).

    I am not suggesting Apple will not come out with the "next big blockbuster thing"...I'm just saying that is not the only path to equity growth in the shorter term. A CHL deal and a blowout FQ1 aren't going to hurt either.
    Nov 25 04:50 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    When you consider quality, resale value, free software, longevity, support, ecosystem, app quality, etc, a lot of people don't think Apple is over priced. If you define "value" as lower cost disposable devices that get few software updates then Samsung has virtually all of that market.
    Nov 19 05:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    Conspiracy or not the more obvious argument is that it is more accurate and interesting to compare premium-devices rather than Apple-devices to "all premium and non premium devices". You are correct if you assert that the competition has gained ground in the premium segment...it's just that it is FAR LESS than your include-every-tier charts suggest. I claim the way your data is presented exaggerates your point which then waters down its' efficacy.
    Nov 18 10:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Italian Tax Woes Are Just The Tip Of The Iceberg [View article]
    I'd like to take issue with the title of this article. The actual article is a discussion of taxation of companies including Apple. The article title suggests the article is exclusively about Apple taxation woes and other Apple-specific problems. Deliberate or not I'd like to vote "no" on sensationalistic and misleading titles.
    Nov 18 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    Excellent article; thanks for posting the link! Recommended. I would also be interested in Mr. Blair's response.
    Nov 18 09:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    I agree with you that the author is cherry picking a low point in the iPhone market share waveform. In my view an even more significant omission is a failure to break down the market share by pricing brackets or tier segments. I think we can all agree that Apple has zero percent of the low-end phone/tablet market...this is a good thing as it preserves the brand, focus, and resources to optimize the high-end and profit-share.

    To put it quite simply Mr Blair believes that un-tiered market-share will, in the long run, be the determinant of profit-share. At the point that the high-end spectrum of these gadgets and affiliated services become nothing but pure commodities I would agree. But this will take a long time [if ever]. I'd guess Mr. Blair believes this is happening as we speak whereas I believe this is many years off (more than a decade). Apple has the potential to extend the timeline indefinitely if it executes well enough.
    Nov 18 08:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    Apple's phone market share is much more interesting as a share of the premium phone market or just categorize in unsubsidized pricing brackets (or even subsidized pricing brackets for that matter). The iPhone 5s and new iPads are selling like hotcakes and so far the supply lag is not that bad even for the mini retina ordered online.

    If Apple introduces a slightly larger iPhone there is a chance it will be viewed by some/many as new, sexy, keeping pace, whatever you want to call it. Ideally the size would not alienate the many who prefer the smaller pocketable phone (or offer two sizes). This is a bit of tangent to the phablet discussion, just making a side comment.

    As far as phablets are concerned one possibility is to have a version of the iPad mini with cellular voice. There would be some cannibalization but still a net positive. I'm not convinced it would make sense to have an Apple phablet that is smaller than the mini and yet larger than a slightly larger iPhone (i.e. somewhere between those extremes). I think Apple will make a good decision, whatever it is. They don't need to [and in fact should not] chase low-end market share.
    Nov 18 06:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refresh Cycle Bodes Well For Apple [View article]
    I agree that iPhone 6 with larger or multiple-size displays should drive shares higher due to market share gains. The article ends with "The time to worry again about Apple is when it gets to the end of this cycle in front of the launch of the iPhone6." I'd like to hear more from Bret on why he thinks the shares could be under pressure after a launch which is likely to spur market share gain.

    I understand the buy-the-rumor sell-the-news aspect but my suspicion is that the market will take a show-me attitude on iPhone 6 market share -- hence the stock will get the love well after the launch when market share numbers and trends are more firmly established.
    Nov 12 03:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Young Users Will Drive The Next Stage Of Mobile Devices [View article]
    Google's Android goal is to snoop on you and sell advertisements in exchange for a decent free multivendor platform. Apple's goal is to provide the best computer platforms; both hardware & software. Both companies are talented and want to do stuff that makes money but Google/Android's motivation is a little less aligned with the end customer. In the long run I tend to believe that motivations affect results (but time will tell). Note that Google is a lot more than Android so I am less knocking Google overall than their Android effort.
    Nov 11 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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