Seeking Alpha

Phr3d

Phr3d
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Phr3d's Comments BY TICKER:
BAC, C, JPM, KO, RY, USB, WFC
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • JPMorgan investor day: Trading off to strong start in 2015 [View news story]
    "Either things are getting better or banks now are beginning to go up against really easy comparisons."
    ayep..
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dissolving Overhang Marks General Motors A 2015 Top Choice [View article]
    Yep, family gave me a swift kick for 50% in GM (as opposed to all Ford) since I had been easily their Biggest Detractor since the 80s, a huge powerful intelligent company that could Never get anything right. I'm a quasi car guy, and GM's internal battles are legion and legendary.

    an amusing ride, to say the least, but Mary is kickin' A, so I moved the 'other' 50% for that sector to the GM team (following your last article) but still laugh when I imagine my reaction to someone telling me in the 80s that -I- would own GM stock someday.
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dissolving Overhang Marks General Motors A 2015 Top Choice [View article]
    Great work, as always, Ray. I am befuddled by the -apparent- media perception that GM is Worse for all the Proactive recalls -- my read was Mary decided to put past and make good on some Famous blunders and move on, I applaud her ba..errhh. intestinal fortitude.

    If we re-think (I see no way for this to occur for reasons that you stated) the agreements of 2009, we Really open doors that frankly, no one Excepting the bottom-of-the-ocean is-a-good-start crowd. I believe the timing for that is past (and good riddance - now could someone offer a certain NY AG a comfy retirement on, well Mars, perhaps?).

    I did the opposite of another commenter - I doubled down in '08 at pennies-on-the-dollar knowing that Many industries are TBTF, heheh. I've now all-in'd GM and your thesis gives me warm fuzzies, but hey.. I'm the idiot that thinks 2015 is All fireworks and free brats..
    Feb 16, 2015. 11:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of U.S. Bancorp [View article]
    with all respect to the Graham method, this is The example of why it can be unintentionally misleading - longs know the doink that caused the fail in 1/3 etc.
    If you are investing 'by the numbers', the Method may fail you here as it is durned hard to beat Richard Davis and team's performance in the defined economic period (and More) as a Kevlar defensive core position.

    If they Can deliver laser 8% to investors, they Will, no question. Buying on dips is (nearly) Not an option with this company, as the Dayers don't find them tasty enough, no liquid shares for you and me to slurp up (and Others in the sector need to mop out of Their basements, as share volatility in core pleases No One, particularly the issuer).
    Feb 13, 2015. 05:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Wells Fargo [View article]
    I'm too lazy to gather the volume of posts, articles and thesis from '13 over to '14 that said precisely this. Glad I kept DRIPing and buying (being that the economic cycle was so much Better Q413, if I am understanding you).

    P/B is a measure, like all others, choose your poison (no fan, me - 'Book' is harsh, worthy of measure when things are bleak for a corp, otherwise, just an amusing comparative).

    Wells (and sector) will fall again tomorrow (150213), like clockwork. yawn.
    Feb 13, 2015. 04:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Wells Fargo [View article]
    "In fact, the company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, which is a rare accomplishment."

    well said and often overlooked. That said, if you presume tanklike 8% (any above is gravy) because of the defensive attributes, this qualifies as premium core - a rare accomplishment. Do Not Epect over 8% here, this is a defensive position.

    Dayers, Please go elsewhere, even at an astounding 5.2B outstanding, there are simply not enough shares in liquid play - you're mentally m***-ting eachother, go away (a buck up and down is tempting, but you honestly Know it's dice roll and will be a wash y/y, go short some more TSLA).

    Mr. Stumpf, 5.2B, is this correct? I thought we investors had made some headway in 2014.
    Humbly suggest, flatline the div and spend whatever the guv'm't will allow you in 2015 on 201+M shares buy, time to get ahead of the curve. That will hella scare competitors (appearing to aim for 4B outstanding and making a clear point..).
    Feb 13, 2015. 03:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Principal Financial's Stock Is A Good Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks Arie, for your classic analysis - this is one of my 10+ years ago holdings that I don't pay much attention to - damn, I didn't make my numbers there this year, LOL.
    Nice dividends when it's time, DRIP and lay the paper on offspring. Pret' sure my great-grandchildren will attend a nice college, if no one screws it up.

    I agree with your conclusions and am adding and recommending - got youngsters that work there, heheh. Never too soon to add core for retirement and PFG qualifies IMHO.
    Feb 3, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Bancorp's Steady Excellence Worth A Premium [View article]
    That tells me that you don't like the bank for reasons of little interest.
    Seriously? A branch developed a leak in the roof, what does that tell me.
    What -would- be telling is if you -asked- where a known employee had gone, since finding out that they transferred to a busier branch or had posted for and won a different position within USB wouldn't fit well with your predisposition.

    My experience differs, in what Very little I have been able to gather from talking, socially, with USB employees. They state that they are happy with their prospects with USB, something that cannot be said for all banks, by any means, as banks are necessarily conservative, and an employee's growth prospects can be limited by Many personnel issues, not the least of which is:
    a plain, flat, rotten economy for five years.

    --------

    Thanks for a fine summary, Stephen, I hope you're right regarding valuation, but I'm long and in it for the sector-leading returns to shareholders. Richard Davis and his team impress me for boring-core.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Explain To Me Again Why I Should Own Bank Of America Stock? [View article]
    Fantastic history and summary as always Ray, Thanks!

    I am immovably unable to share your contrarian-positive-ish forward view until (of course) it is too late and Moynihan and team actually Do stop excusin' and manage to avoid blunder-headlines for a couple quarters, but I see your thesis and am budged, if only slightly.

    Hope you tracked down the Q4 transcript, or better yet Listen to the USB earnings call, now That was an impressive Q&A! Just schoolkid glad the <harumph> part of my core shares moved to Richard Davis and his team in Minn.

    and That is why I am so immovable, the two Good banks, and even that nameless jamieperformsmarginally Co are easily taking market share, and that bodes Unwell for BAC.
    IMHO, "priceless" describes the facial expressions from WFC & USB customers if approached by.. oh NM, too much..
    Jan 27, 2015. 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan reportedly a big winner in Swiss franc revaluation [View news story]
    caveat: Some banks, not All "the banks"
    Jan 27, 2015. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Shouldn't Have Been Beat Up As Badly As It Was On The Back Of Earnings [View article]
    A few major players got together and bet what the new 'floor' was for the banks, being how much -could- they drop (percentage). The JPM bettor lost (and Jamie got his swift-kick-in-the-pants).

    This will be a fantastic year for JPM, because if it is not, they and Jamie will find themselves in also-ran status that is near impossible to recover from.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Paperwork foul-up could cost JPMorgan $1.5B [View news story]
    present earnings, as opposed to.. hmm.. an increase of EPS later due to reserve release for.. Not screwing up? maybe I misunderstand you..
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo - Q4 And Full Year Earnings Review [View article]
    Well said (I disagree with the drop being a result of quarterly - arguably they went Up considering the entire sector tanked).

    Each of your issues was well addressed during the call, but confidence is nothing, numbers are everything. NIM is IMHO unavoidable when deposits go up So Much per quarter (and are aguably a great future investment, considering how they compare to competitor NIMs), but the rest will be addressed in Q1 15 or there will be hell to pay, internal and external.
    Jan 19, 2015. 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: Solid Absolute Value In An Expensive Market [View article]
    Not exactly what you are looking for, but if the entire O&G portfolio crashed hard, John Shrewberry referred to it as 2% of their holdings, mentioning $200M at one point. My viewpoint is that amounts to 1/5 of a competing banks quarterly legal expenses, so I tend not to be worried.

    As I mentioned in another (of so many references to this subject) WSJ shoulda' stayed on the line and heard all the responses to O&G worries - John states "O&G is a volatile business", i.e., if you think they haven't done their due diligence, worry. If you look at their history, longs aren't worried, i.e., oil has spanned $30-$140 with several small crashes in just the last decade - it's built in to their rates IMHO.
    Jan 19, 2015. 10:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Bank Of America Top The Whisper Number This Quarter? [View article]
    apologies, this was unintentionally posted, deleted, and it returned again.
    (alcohol and web are a dangerous mix)
    Jan 15, 2015. 04:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
285 Comments
119 Likes