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pkvanwinkle@yahoo.com

pkvanwinkle@yahoo.com
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  • S&P 500: Generational Opportunity In The Making [View article]
    Do the same chart starting in 1968 through 1982. Then ask yourself, would you want to pull back from equities in 1982?
    Nov 21, 2014. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QQQ Is Not The Technology ETF You Think It Is [View article]
    I always thought QQQ was supposed to track the NASDAQ, and not just technology. To me, having the index represented in a balanced portfolio along with the S&P 500, small and mid cap and international was the very basis of a broad passive portfolio. Adding industries gets tricky, and soon you slip right back into sub par performance!
    Nov 10, 2014. 06:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Margin Debt Peaks May Indicate End Of Cyclical Bull Market [View article]
    What ,if any, correlation is the level of interest rates? The spike began in the early 80's continuing today (with two dips in 00' and 07'), as interest rates fell during the same period. I do not have a clue if this is relevant; also I like and am impressed with you work.
    Aug 20, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Margin Debt Peaks May Indicate End Of Cyclical Bull Market [View article]
    What if any correlation is the level of interest rates in this data. Looks like the spike started in the early 80's to present, about the same period as interest rates declined. I have not a clue if this is relevant, and I do like and am impressed with your work.
    Aug 20, 2014. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Cut Stocks, Added Bonds Thursday And Friday [View article]
    Look, I only give credit when you make the call and then the thing happens. So, at 2 pm on Friday you announce you sold on Thursday and Friday. Not good enough, unless the market really drops this week, which it absolutely could. But if it takes off on Monday or Tuesday, then you'll look like the whipped sawed kid!

    Now, having said that, I would go for a 10% correction forecast, so we would have some more to go! what troubles me is how many people are not in this market...all the institutions who's growth accounts have only 60% in stocks, never mind the masses who are still nonbelievers.

    You go ahead and try to guess this market...for me, all I have on the sidelines is 15% and that's it for this correction or bear market! I will just ride it out!! Oh, when the market hits -9% I will put 5% back in and -18% the rest goes in. My guess is the S&P will hit 2000 before my last 10% goes in!
    Jan 25, 2014. 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Not OK And Not On A Sustainable Trajectory [View article]
    Sounds like this guy has an agenda. As for the banks, he is giving them way too much credit for knowing what they are doing...as in pricing stocks to suit their goals. And the fines JPM is paying was not for manipulating the market.

    Why is there a conspiracy theory on every topic in life that had unknown or uncertain characteristics.
    Jan 10, 2014. 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Are Way Too High [View article]
    I always worry when someone says......"this time it's different"

    BUT........This time it's different! And I am talking about margins. It's subtle, but more and more of the S&P's earnings are coming fron foreign sales, and the margins on those revenues have always been higher. So, maybe this time isn't different, but the margins are, for a reason. And Schiller's p/e analysis misses this important factor also! Having said that, I am not suggesting the market has a big upside... My guess is a little rational exuberance might lift us toward 1800, then look for a 20% bear, laying the foundation for the next big bull run starting in 2015-16.
    May 28, 2013. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Similarity To 1979-82 Is Uncanny [View article]
    Who is left to buy, you ask? Sounds like you could be one! So many investors don't believe this market.... Individual investors, trust departments, the 52% of the hedge funds, and international investors, all with growth portfolios yet light on stocks. And then there are those investors living under rocks who will suddenly find their bond portfolios hurting big time! Who's left to buy? Sit back and watch them emerge from their caves of doom and gloom!

    Yes, there will be a dip, 12% maybe 18% down, and starting sometime this year, but the next leg up will be explosive when even you realize the dip was nothing more than a correction and the market is headed to 2500-3000 by 2017-18. Then, the only dip will be the investors who missed the party!
    May 7, 2013. 09:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Is Trading For 17.9x Last Year's Earnings, Not 13.7x Next Year's Earnings [View article]
    Hummmmmm. I am not so sure this TTM fails to predict market moves as badly as you suggest. For example, when the TTM rises above 20x, it appears the markets progress slows and then drops, while a TTM in the 12x to 14x area seems not to signal great danger ahead.

    Frankly, forecasting a 5-10% correction with the market at 1550, (up what?, 120% from the 2009 bottom) would not seem to be much of a forecast...and a larger Bear market sometime in the future is more or less saying the sun will set later today.

    My point is, the tenure of your note is bearish, but the substance does not bear out that attitude. Bull markets, (up 20% or more off their lows) last 2 to 4 years, while bear markets (down 20%) last half that time. Ok, so we are in just about at the 4 year mark, so sure, sometime in the next year or two we will see a bear market.

    That is expected. But 2 years after, we will see a bull market. All you have to do is put aside the funds you need over the next three years and leave the rest in stocks. So with the TTM at 17.9, maybe you take an additional 10-15% of the portfolio off if you feel earnings will not meet expectations...but, that still leaves you with 70-75% invested in stocks.

    Does this sound credible, or am I missing something?
    Mar 6, 2013. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We told you so." Seriously? Barron's thumps its chest in the sort of self-congratulatory, bullish article that could give a fan of stocks pause. "If there's a great rotation going on from bonds to stocks, we may be only in the top of the first inning," says Jason Trennert. The 60/40 stocks/bonds mix is out of favor with many institutional investors, notably big college endowments, which now have 27% of assets in stocks vs. 45% a decade ago. [View news story]
    Totally different subject????
    And I quote: "Retirees are tired of seeing banks offer .25 on CD rates and money market funds giving them NOTHING. I just don't understand why this is so effing hard to figure out why bonds continue to go up. There's a lot of retirees who are cash machines and they will gladly take 1.5% on treasuries over banks CDs. Also these retirees are hardly the types who will jump into stocks that are paying high yield as they still remember what happened in
    2008." You just wrote that above!!!

    Most retirees that we are talking about have IRA's as well as non-retirement (or what we call agency accounts). I agree with Tack below, these investors (retirees or others) are still scared of stocks.

    As I read these various notes, I am amazed at how little confidence there is in the total return from stocks. This will be true until a significant time goes by with stocks doing well.

    I wish I could see the "comments" like ours here, but written in 1997,8,9 and even early 2000! Today, they are negative, back then they were positive...as someone said hereabouts "this time it's different..look out!

    back then, my firm, a major Inv. Managment firm, never got bearish...even when P/E's rose to 25-29 times forward earnings! Instead they turned to fund of fund hedge funds to "enhance" their expected returns! And the market plunged 58%!!

    No, lots of this talk about inflation, fed policy, domestic economic rates of growth, are just smoke screens (not intentional!) that often hide the underpinnings of future stock prices, which more and more are based on Global economic growth (as opposed to just the U.S.) as well as investor sentiment, (p/e multiples?...etc) and what I also look at...long term charts and trends.
    Feb 3, 2013. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "We told you so." Seriously? Barron's thumps its chest in the sort of self-congratulatory, bullish article that could give a fan of stocks pause. "If there's a great rotation going on from bonds to stocks, we may be only in the top of the first inning," says Jason Trennert. The 60/40 stocks/bonds mix is out of favor with many institutional investors, notably big college endowments, which now have 27% of assets in stocks vs. 45% a decade ago. [View news story]
    Well, there is one thing you didn't factor in about "retirees". They are mostly old! I don't say that to be funny..I am 71! I say it because their "memories" go back further than 2008.

    They remember the 2000 (and '07) Eguity crash, and perhaps the '87 one and even '69.... All biggies! What I do not understand, is if they remember those so well, why don't they realize the markets total return over even shorter periods of time seem to consistantly give investors 8, 9, 10% and more a year

    Some one said to me recently..."I wouldn't touch the market now...look how it is flat since 2000!". I asked them if they believed that the S&P 500's total return since 1997 was 8.8%? They said no way!

    Depending on the size of a retirees investment account even at age 70, like me I would have 70% or more in stocks, with the balance in safe cash. That 70% will return 9-12% on average for the next 20-30 years...they can peel off a little every time the market gets ahead of itself.....and they should be fine!

    QE, inflation, famine, debt, recession, depression, wars, "the worlds gonna end tomorrow", we've seen it all! And stocks keep chugging along. Now, you want to play around, get the Brazilian ETF, (EWZ??) so when the Olympics come this summer maybe the herd will jump into that!!
    Feb 2, 2013. 02:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The nearly-always bullish Tom Lee of JPMorgan made news a couple of weeks back by actually sounding cautious. No more, the strategist takes to CNBC to talk about Dow 20K and S&P 500 2.5K in the next 4 years. "There's still a lot of investors fighting the tape ... We still have a taint on owning stocks." [View news story]
    I would say this, by 2018...if you used a simple visual trend line that starts in the early 1920s and shows the clear over valuation of the 1990s, the somewhat overvaluation in parts of the 60's and the significant undervaluation of the 1970s, (into mid 80's) and extend the trend to 2018 the single point forecast suggests a s&p 500 level of 2275. a single deviation puts the range at a high of 2700 and a low of 1800. Two deviations = 1250 low and 4800 high.

    At 1500..the risk reward ratio is clearly tilted in favor of the reward...bearing in mind this does not include dividends.

    and please do not tell me this time it is different because europe is such and such, gold is this and that, real estate is bla bla, demographics is snort snort, the country's debt is nuf nuf, this trend covers all the same sort of stuff and then some!!!!
    Jan 28, 2013. 02:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Killing Spiders: Better Options Than The S&P 500 ETF [View article]
    FNSAX...Turnover, 187%, expense ratio 1.35. Hummmmmmm, are we back to finding funds that "beat" the market, (this one has for a year and a half), with one guy (Greenblatt) at the helm...and this is a better alternative to a passive long term strategy in which one purchases SPY?
    Jan 23, 2013. 07:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With S&P 500 companies retiring 8B shares through buybacks in the 18 months to October 2012, EPS figures are likely to get a surprisingly strong boost. It would be surprising because, as Robert Baird's Brian Rauscher says, analysts don't often factor in stock repurchases when making their forecasts. [View news story]
    Spoken like a true analyst........not! Tony, while companies announce intentions of buying back stock, it is always after the fact that actual purchases are reported. By that time analysts are busy projecting future earnings..so when the actual s come out, they can be unexpectedly better than expected.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Allocation In The Eyes Of The Kelly Strategy [View article]
    whoa, big fella....... did your formula include the dividends that SPY kicks off? if it did, then ok...my face is red. If it didn't then I think you may have omitted an important variable.
    Jan 14, 2013. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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