Matt Callow_'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/108115/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/127301-strike-three-for-geithner-today?source=feed#comment-436340 436340 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 09:09:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112963-nine-ways-to-profit-in-2009?source=feed#comment-412071 412071 themonthlystock.blogsp.... I just updated my results for these themes tonight. I'll post it here as well:


Just two months into the new year and we're cruising nicely with this year's Themes. Eight of our nine themes are up an average of 57%, with one theme down modestly:


Theme 1 (Short Banks): Up 100%
Theme 2 (Short Oil): Up 143%
Theme 3 (Short Tech): Up 13%
Theme 4 (Long Gold): Up 24%
Theme 5 (Short Real Estate): Up 37%
Theme 6 (Short China): Up 31%
Theme 7 (Short Euro Banks): Up 69%
Theme 8 (Short Consumers): Up 39%
Theme 9 (Short Toyota): Down 10%

Total portfolio return since January 1st, 2009: Up 49.54%

]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 22:55:23 -0500 themonthlystock.blogsp.... I just updated my results for these themes tonight. I'll post it here as well:


Just two months into the new year and we're cruising nicely with this year's Themes. Eight of our nine themes are up an average of 57%, with one theme down modestly:


Theme 1 (Short Banks): Up 100%
Theme 2 (Short Oil): Up 143%
Theme 3 (Short Tech): Up 13%
Theme 4 (Long Gold): Up 24%
Theme 5 (Short Real Estate): Up 37%
Theme 6 (Short China): Up 31%
Theme 7 (Short Euro Banks): Up 69%
Theme 8 (Short Consumers): Up 39%
Theme 9 (Short Toyota): Down 10%

Total portfolio return since January 1st, 2009: Up 49.54%

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112963-nine-ways-to-profit-in-2009?source=feed#comment-356198 356198
I did say in my predictions that I would be trading in and out of these themes during the year. With that said, I will be making some changes at tomorrow's open. Please see my blog for details.]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 00:12:35 -0500
I did say in my predictions that I would be trading in and out of these themes during the year. With that said, I will be making some changes at tomorrow's open. Please see my blog for details.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112963-nine-ways-to-profit-in-2009?source=feed#comment-348102 348102 Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:16:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112963-nine-ways-to-profit-in-2009?source=feed#comment-345717 345717 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 16:36:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112963-nine-ways-to-profit-in-2009?source=feed#comment-345716 345716 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 16:36:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112962-eight-themes-for-2008-how-did-they-do?source=feed#comment-344543 344543 Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:43:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101146-my-eight-themes-for-2008-are-paying-off?source=feed#comment-344334 344334

On Oct 23 08:23 AM Deepfryer999 wrote:

> How do we know theme 4 is really up 513%? The only data he provides
> shows it being up 43.83%.]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 13:09:12 -0500

On Oct 23 08:23 AM Deepfryer999 wrote:

> How do we know theme 4 is really up 513%? The only data he provides
> shows it being up 43.83%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99026-the-longs-are-getting-squeezed?source=feed#comment-278133 278133 Thu, 09 Oct 2008 16:59:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99180-current-crisis-trading-on-par-with-beginning-of-great-depression?source=feed#comment-278132 278132 Thu, 09 Oct 2008 16:58:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71875-the-global-recession-s-here-how-to-profit-from-it?source=feed#comment-148713 148713
AnonGeneral: Shorting the Russell 2000 should be just as profitable as shorting the Nasdaq or the Dow. However, small caps tend to lead large caps when coming out of a downturn, so I would expect the Russell 2000 to be the first of those three indexes to turn positive.

globalmacro: I think it's a bit unfair to jump on one bad pick. For the record, I have only written articles on Seeking Alpha for three stocks. If you visit my blog, you will see that my Monthly Stock Portfolio is up 3.92% since it's inception on October 1st. The S&P 500 is down 11% over the same period. That's nearly a 15% outperformance in just six months. When you go to my blog, feel free to see my Motley Fool Caps Ranking. I currently outrank over 98% of the other stock pickers on that site. I'm more than willing to admit a bad pick, but let's get the rest of the facts on the table before you go around trying to smear my reputation.]]> Fri, 11 Apr 2008 00:10:18 -0400
AnonGeneral: Shorting the Russell 2000 should be just as profitable as shorting the Nasdaq or the Dow. However, small caps tend to lead large caps when coming out of a downturn, so I would expect the Russell 2000 to be the first of those three indexes to turn positive.

globalmacro: I think it's a bit unfair to jump on one bad pick. For the record, I have only written articles on Seeking Alpha for three stocks. If you visit my blog, you will see that my Monthly Stock Portfolio is up 3.92% since it's inception on October 1st. The S&P 500 is down 11% over the same period. That's nearly a 15% outperformance in just six months. When you go to my blog, feel free to see my Motley Fool Caps Ranking. I currently outrank over 98% of the other stock pickers on that site. I'm more than willing to admit a bad pick, but let's get the rest of the facts on the table before you go around trying to smear my reputation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69979-the-fed-is-deflating-10-reasons-why?source=feed#comment-133367 133367 Sat, 29 Mar 2008 09:32:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70170-gold-and-silver-is-the-correction-over?source=feed#comment-133361 133361 Sat, 29 Mar 2008 09:19:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70357-investor-sentiment-and-market-returns-now-s-the-time-to-be-bold?source=feed#comment-133350 133350
Finally, I think the internet delivers info so fast today, that sentiment moves much faster than it ever did before. We can get to that -15% today, much quicker than we did in the early 90's.]]> Sat, 29 Mar 2008 09:02:00 -0400
Finally, I think the internet delivers info so fast today, that sentiment moves much faster than it ever did before. We can get to that -15% today, much quicker than we did in the early 90's.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59922-tweaking-my-portfolio-in-a-substantive-and-timely-manner?source=feed#comment-110152 110152
Unlike GLD, I plan to hold SRS throughout most of the year. I'm not going to be trading into and out of this one, so since I was already in a position, I just adjusted that position to double the leverage. You may be right, and it may drop in the near term, but I am willing to ride that out.
If you read my first article laying out my eight themes, you may recall that I siad I was making eight broad-based bets on the market. I may not get them all right. I still believe that real estate will continue to weaken going forward.]]> Mon, 14 Jan 2008 08:48:00 -0500
Unlike GLD, I plan to hold SRS throughout most of the year. I'm not going to be trading into and out of this one, so since I was already in a position, I just adjusted that position to double the leverage. You may be right, and it may drop in the near term, but I am willing to ride that out.
If you read my first article laying out my eight themes, you may recall that I siad I was making eight broad-based bets on the market. I may not get them all right. I still believe that real estate will continue to weaken going forward.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59922-tweaking-my-portfolio-in-a-substantive-and-timely-manner?source=feed#comment-110151 110151
You raised a lot of great points and I wanted to discuss ALL of them. You are absolutely right about the tax implications of GLD. I chose not to mention that since the Aggressive Trader Portfolio switches in and out of positions rapidly, and I doubt I will be in the GLD position for more than one year. Therefore, for this portfolio, the tax implication does not matter. For those looking to hold GLD in excess of one year, then yes, you may want to consider exactly what Bob mentioned.
Secondly, I wanted to make it clear that even though you called me an "advisor", I am not a Certified Financial Advisor. I receive no compensation for the calls I am putting out to the public.
In my first article, I said I'd play gold with futures. I switched that to GLD for the exact reason you mentioned...the possibility of a sharp downturn. If that occurred, it could quickly wipe out a futures account. By investing in GLD, as long as gold has some value, so will GLD.
Finally, how did Army do this year? ]]> Mon, 14 Jan 2008 08:45:26 -0500
You raised a lot of great points and I wanted to discuss ALL of them. You are absolutely right about the tax implications of GLD. I chose not to mention that since the Aggressive Trader Portfolio switches in and out of positions rapidly, and I doubt I will be in the GLD position for more than one year. Therefore, for this portfolio, the tax implication does not matter. For those looking to hold GLD in excess of one year, then yes, you may want to consider exactly what Bob mentioned.
Secondly, I wanted to make it clear that even though you called me an "advisor", I am not a Certified Financial Advisor. I receive no compensation for the calls I am putting out to the public.
In my first article, I said I'd play gold with futures. I switched that to GLD for the exact reason you mentioned...the possibility of a sharp downturn. If that occurred, it could quickly wipe out a futures account. By investing in GLD, as long as gold has some value, so will GLD.
Finally, how did Army do this year? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59153-matt-callow-s-2008-investment-themes-so-far-so-good?source=feed#comment-108848 108848 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 21:17:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58674-8-key-investment-themes-for-2008?source=feed#comment-107596 107596 Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:26:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/50382-round-the-mulberry-bush-of-a-weak-dollar-where-is-the-weasel?source=feed#comment-99069 99069 Thu, 18 Oct 2007 09:10:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48116-hercules-offshore-getting-to-know-a-hero?source=feed#comment-97125 97125 Fri, 28 Sep 2007 18:25:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48116-hercules-offshore-getting-to-know-a-hero?source=feed#comment-97048 97048 Fri, 28 Sep 2007 00:31:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48116-hercules-offshore-getting-to-know-a-hero?source=feed#comment-96864 96864
1) On the day that I drafted up this article, HERO was above its' 50 DMA. Just barely, but the price trend was up and the 50 DMA line was moving down rapidly. I still see a good case for upward momentum here. I prefer to focus more on fundamental analysis than technical.

2) HERO is more multinational than they ever have been. With the TODCO purchase they have positioned themselves well in global waters. Even though they may receive dollars, the dayrates they receive have been moving up as the dollar falls and demand increases. I have no doubt that the revenue will be there at the end of the quarter.

3) I agree with you on this point. I figured about 75% utilization. If you look at the relationship between the price of oil to the price of natural gas, historically, it has been about 7 to 1. Right now, it sits at 10 to 1. Natural gas is currently undervalued. If you look at the prices on futures of natural gas, you can see that traders believe that the price of natural gas is going to rise over the next 6 months, filling in this gap back to 7 to 1.

I expected many comments about the $100-$150 oil call. Your's does not surprise me. Only time will tell. But keep in mind, as the dollar falls, the value of oil to the rest of the world falls as well, unless the price of oil goes up. Even if supply and demand remained stagnant (highly unlikely) oil would still rise in price if the dollar continued to fall. As I pointed out, demand rising, supply and dollar falling, oil will continue to go up.]]> Tue, 25 Sep 2007 19:07:23 -0400
1) On the day that I drafted up this article, HERO was above its' 50 DMA. Just barely, but the price trend was up and the 50 DMA line was moving down rapidly. I still see a good case for upward momentum here. I prefer to focus more on fundamental analysis than technical.

2) HERO is more multinational than they ever have been. With the TODCO purchase they have positioned themselves well in global waters. Even though they may receive dollars, the dayrates they receive have been moving up as the dollar falls and demand increases. I have no doubt that the revenue will be there at the end of the quarter.

3) I agree with you on this point. I figured about 75% utilization. If you look at the relationship between the price of oil to the price of natural gas, historically, it has been about 7 to 1. Right now, it sits at 10 to 1. Natural gas is currently undervalued. If you look at the prices on futures of natural gas, you can see that traders believe that the price of natural gas is going to rise over the next 6 months, filling in this gap back to 7 to 1.

I expected many comments about the $100-$150 oil call. Your's does not surprise me. Only time will tell. But keep in mind, as the dollar falls, the value of oil to the rest of the world falls as well, unless the price of oil goes up. Even if supply and demand remained stagnant (highly unlikely) oil would still rise in price if the dollar continued to fall. As I pointed out, demand rising, supply and dollar falling, oil will continue to go up.]]>