Matt Callow_

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

You can find updates on my blog: themonthlystock.blogsp.... I just updated my results for these themes tonight. I'll post it here as well:


Just two months into the new year and we're cruising nicely with this year's Themes. Eight of our nine themes are up an average of 57%, with one theme down modestly:


Theme 1 (Short Banks): Up 100%
Theme 2 (Short Oil): Up 143%
Theme 3 (Short Tech): Up 13%
Theme 4 (Long Gold): Up 24%
Theme 5 (Short Real Estate): Up 37%
Theme 6 (Short China): Up 31%
Theme 7 (Short Euro Banks): Up 69%
Theme 8 (Short Consumers): Up 39%
Theme 9 (Short Toyota): Down 10%

Total portfolio return since January 1st, 2009: Up 49.54%

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

Update time...two weeks into the New Year and this portfolio is up an average of 16%. Seven out of Nine predictions are in the green. Maybe I should sell now, stuff my mattress and lock in a nice 16% gain on the year. But how fun would that be?

I did say in my predictions that I would be trading in and out of these themes during the year. With that said, I will be making some changes at tomorrow's open. Please see my blog for details.

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

onlyformoney> My oil call was based on my belief that we are just beginning the Global Recession, and that the deflation we saw in commodities is not over. Making any predictions regarding oil is risky as it is very difficult to foresee political events, which have a huge impact on the price of oil. Oil is getting elevated by two primary political factors right now, Israel fighting Hamas, and Russia pinching natural gas supplies. I expect the first event has less than a few weeks to go before it de-escalates. Russia, on the other hand, is a bit of a wild card and could carry on their actions for some time. In my opinion, barring any major new players joining the Israel/Hamas conflict, oil will begin heading south after Israel feels it has accomplished what it set out for and begins withdrawing troops.

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

For those who have called this strategy "suicidal" or "irresponsible" thanks for your opinion. Maybe I should have been more clear in my article. This is called an "Aggressive Trader Portfolio" for a reason. I certainly don't advocate anybody sticking nest eggs into this strategy. These are speculative trades (like all predictions) and should be traded as such. Like I said in the article, do your own research and invest at your own risk.

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

For those who have called this strategy "suicidal" or "irresponsible" thanks for your opinion. Maybe I should have been more clear in my article. This is called an "Aggressive Trader Portfolio" for a reason. I certainly don't advocate anybody sticking nest eggs into this strategy. These are speculative trades (like all predictions) and should be traded as such. Like I said in the article, do your own research and invest at your own risk.

Eight Themes for 2008: How Did They Do?

I made an error regarding Theme 3 that I need to clarify. Although my overall results and theme results did not change, I actually predicted the Canadian Dollar would rise against the US Dollar in 2008. Therefore, I only got four of eight themes right.

My Eight Themes for 2008 Are Paying Off

Deepfryer999> Sorry for not replying sooner. The provided picture shows how much that trade has made since the last change. I have been in and out of the British Pound options all year and you can see all the calls on my blog. The original value placed in this theme was $125,000. It finished the year at $1,500,166.88 for a gain of 1100%. If you want evidence, you'll find it on my blog.


On Oct 23 08:23 AM Deepfryer999 wrote:

> How do we know theme 4 is really up 513%? The only data he provides
> shows it being up 43.83%.

Tweaking My Portfolio in a 'Substantive and Timely' Manner

Ed,

Unlike GLD, I plan to hold SRS throughout most of the year. I'm not going to be trading into and out of this one, so since I was already in a position, I just adjusted that position to double the leverage. You may be right, and it may drop in the near term, but I am willing to ride that out.
If you read my first article laying out my eight themes, you may recall that I siad I was making eight broad-based bets on the market. I may not get them all right. I still believe that real estate will continue to weaken going forward.

Tweaking My Portfolio in a 'Substantive and Timely' Manner

Bob,

You raised a lot of great points and I wanted to discuss ALL of them. You are absolutely right about the tax implications of GLD. I chose not to mention that since the Aggressive Trader Portfolio switches in and out of positions rapidly, and I doubt I will be in the GLD position for more than one year. Therefore, for this portfolio, the tax implication does not matter. For those looking to hold GLD in excess of one year, then yes, you may want to consider exactly what Bob mentioned.
Secondly, I wanted to make it clear that even though you called me an "advisor", I am not a Certified Financial Advisor. I receive no compensation for the calls I am putting out to the public.
In my first article, I said I'd play gold with futures. I switched that to GLD for the exact reason you mentioned...the possibility of a sharp downturn. If that occurred, it could quickly wipe out a futures account. By investing in GLD, as long as gold has some value, so will GLD.
Finally, how did Army do this year?