Matt Callow_

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

You can find updates on my blog: themonthlystock.blogsp.... I just updated my results for these themes tonight. I'll post it here as well:


Just two months into the new year and we're cruising nicely with this year's Themes. Eight of our nine themes are up an average of 57%, with one theme down modestly:


Theme 1 (Short Banks): Up 100%
Theme 2 (Short Oil): Up 143%
Theme 3 (Short Tech): Up 13%
Theme 4 (Long Gold): Up 24%
Theme 5 (Short Real Estate): Up 37%
Theme 6 (Short China): Up 31%
Theme 7 (Short Euro Banks): Up 69%
Theme 8 (Short Consumers): Up 39%
Theme 9 (Short Toyota): Down 10%

Total portfolio return since January 1st, 2009: Up 49.54%

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

Update time...two weeks into the New Year and this portfolio is up an average of 16%. Seven out of Nine predictions are in the green. Maybe I should sell now, stuff my mattress and lock in a nice 16% gain on the year. But how fun would that be?

I did say in my predictions that I would be trading in and out of these themes during the year. With that said, I will be making some changes at tomorrow's open. Please see my blog for details.

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

onlyformoney> My oil call was based on my belief that we are just beginning the Global Recession, and that the deflation we saw in commodities is not over. Making any predictions regarding oil is risky as it is very difficult to foresee political events, which have a huge impact on the price of oil. Oil is getting elevated by two primary political factors right now, Israel fighting Hamas, and Russia pinching natural gas supplies. I expect the first event has less than a few weeks to go before it de-escalates. Russia, on the other hand, is a bit of a wild card and could carry on their actions for some time. In my opinion, barring any major new players joining the Israel/Hamas conflict, oil will begin heading south after Israel feels it has accomplished what it set out for and begins withdrawing troops.

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

For those who have called this strategy "suicidal" or "irresponsible" thanks for your opinion. Maybe I should have been more clear in my article. This is called an "Aggressive Trader Portfolio" for a reason. I certainly don't advocate anybody sticking nest eggs into this strategy. These are speculative trades (like all predictions) and should be traded as such. Like I said in the article, do your own research and invest at your own risk.

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

For those who have called this strategy "suicidal" or "irresponsible" thanks for your opinion. Maybe I should have been more clear in my article. This is called an "Aggressive Trader Portfolio" for a reason. I certainly don't advocate anybody sticking nest eggs into this strategy. These are speculative trades (like all predictions) and should be traded as such. Like I said in the article, do your own research and invest at your own risk.

The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It

Here's my response to two of the posts:

AnonGeneral: Shorting the Russell 2000 should be just as profitable as shorting the Nasdaq or the Dow. However, small caps tend to lead large caps when coming out of a downturn, so I would expect the Russell 2000 to be the first of those three indexes to turn positive.

globalmacro: I think it's a bit unfair to jump on one bad pick. For the record, I have only written articles on Seeking Alpha for three stocks. If you visit my blog, you will see that my Monthly Stock Portfolio is up 3.92% since it's inception on October 1st. The S&P 500 is down 11% over the same period. That's nearly a 15% outperformance in just six months. When you go to my blog, feel free to see my Motley Fool Caps Ranking. I currently outrank over 98% of the other stock pickers on that site. I'm more than willing to admit a bad pick, but let's get the rest of the facts on the table before you go around trying to smear my reputation.