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  • Iliad's Acquisition Of T-Mobile Could Leave Sprint Up For Grabs [View article]
    Sprint is already a controlled company. Softbank isn't going to sell the whole thing to Dish just because Illiad came on the scene. If Illiad prevails there isn't an Investment case to be built around buying Sprint on the hopes of someone buying it out of the ashes. That Investment case would need to be made AFTER the stock settles out, because it will go down the day that deal is announced.
    Aug 4 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Europe Is No Magic Bullet For Netflix [View article]
    If they can raise prices at "will" then why have they only been able to get a $1 increase in over the past 5 year that will take 2 years to phase in and won't even cover the cost of new content?
    May 30 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why Netflix Could Follow Beats [View article]
    There is a big difference between the market for buying songs and buying movies/TV shows. The Beats acquisition is fueled by the desire to not cannibalize the download revenue stream + a bit for technology as Apple has poor listening tech in its devises. Video content licences are very different than the music licenses. The studios have outs from those contracts if an acquisition is done of NFLX and trust me it would be renegotiated so what they heck would apple be buying for this nosebleed valuation? Two shows that NFLX owns? Its user preferences engine? Access to credit card/accounts? They may not have the fist two in the same sense that NFLX has but they have a huge file of Itunes users and have a decent understanding of what users want. This rumor/thought process is obviously behind at least a portion of the recent run up in the stock as it really began to move around the time the Beat's rumors came out. Its been around before. It would be a pretty silly use of cash by Apple and I don't think well received by their investors.
    May 29 02:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: The Impact Of The Recent Price Rise [View article]
    OMG Sakelaris a different view being expressed that conflicts with your Kool-Aid powered bullishness they must be a cable MSO exec. Look they can only be creative enough to come up with a number as a tag. I don't think 22273481 sounds that negative at all. Its good to have discussion. Its dangerous to ignore information or Bearish view that might conflict with the "its all good" mime. It's no coincidence that NFLX had its near term peak when they finally caved on paid peering. Trust me that's the least of Reed's issues. He's just being whiny and pushing buttons to try to benefit NFLX's own cause (which is understandable). What I would be thinking about if I was you was why the stock has pulled back with all this Net Neutrality stuff. The Charter/TWC that got replaced with TWC/CMCSA days after the Net Neutrality ruling was thrown out. I'd be concerned about all the competition that is sudden in the space or the fact that its going to take two years to "phase" in a price increase on a business with 4.5% monthly churn especially when its being done "to buy more programming". Reed can float these converts left and right can't he? He's done a brilliant job in the past with that and it will work until the stock price doesn't let it.

    The question I'd ask is how fat is that DVD cash flow tail and is it possible the price increase just replaces that tail and helps cover renewals but doesn't benefit FCF at all?

    I'd be nervous about all the off balance sheet debt and media accounting. I'd have an eye towards the much deeper pockets that are balancing the playing field. Bear thesis. NFLX does a great job with their investors. They've been brilliant at crossing the chasm from mail order DVD to online streaming and they are smart to be a technology leader with 4K TV but these things don't make the stock make any more sense up here.

    I'd also worry about what happened last time the 100 day moving average for this momentum stock made a bear cross on the 200 day ($150 down). Momentum cuts both ways even for QE turbo charged Internet stocks. Always good to consider the other sides view.
    May 14 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: This Stock Is A Good Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I don't think you understand what is going on with popular momentum stocks where valuations were completely detached from reality.

    From a fundamental perspective NFLX missed US #s. They modestly beat Intl subs and only beat Op Inc by cutting International marketing spend. The company really doesn't have this thing you are calling "free cash flow". Its pretty well understood by now that they have massive off balance liabilities and only have optically positive cash flow b/c of media accounting conventions.

    Competition is risings which means so are costs (which are already pretty steep). Raising prices into rising competition is not a sign of strength. NFLX needs to raise prices.

    From a technical perspective the chart is in a very dangerous place. You might want to miss the first $25 of the move up here.
    Apr 28 02:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dish Network: 3 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 Days [View article]
    this isn't material, especially in light of the much larger insider sales across the rest of the S&P 500
    Apr 21 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint/T-Mobile Merger: 6 Things You May Want To Know [View article]
    You might want to handicap the possibility of this deal getting done at all given that its below 50% with both the DOJ and FCC unlikely to support it without massive concessions and spectrum divestitures. You might also ponder the question of "why now". What is Masa nervous about?
    Dec 30 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Signs Deal With Walt Disney Co.: More Fuel For Momentum Growth [View article]
    The ability to spend money and use accounting gimmicks to let liabilities build up off balance sheet away from the eyes of MOMO investors that don't understand simple math does not equate to a long term value add.
    Nov 18 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Soars On Strong Report And Guidance [View article]
    When you don't have earnings and you are obfuscating your true liabilities with off-balance sheet vehicles and using over a decades worth of grey area accounting tricks including amortizing this massive asset of content they are creating (I mean they do have 2 shows now that they had produced for them) over periods far greater than the customers that can churn off monthly stick around and you still just squeak by with inline revenues and a 3c eps beat produced entirely by reduced marketing expense (Chromecast free promo??) you are unlikely to be able to be a better "growth" company with tremendously improved operating margins by raising prices b/c doing that would kill already slowing domestic subscriber growth.
    It was average at best.
    Oct 22 02:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Is Due For A Correction Of 25% Or More [View article]
    The stock touched the top of its 4 Standard Deviation Vol Band today. Netflix as only managed to do that twice in the last five years. Facebook managed to briefly touch on its earning move. We've seen several of the other momentum ignition vehicles (Yelp, Zillow) manage this but they ALL pull back pretty darn quick when they do this. If you were lucky enough to own the move its probably time to step aside. I mean you wouldn't want to worry about all of the sponsors selling stock hand over fist over the past two years at 1/2 the IPO price. The fact that it needed to do a secondary to extend its $60mn line of credit. Or the fact that the lead sponsor is selling its biggest block to date or the likely fact that the other Sponsors have been dumping into this move. Heck its almost to the intraday high from its IPO of $26. I'm sure that won't bring any selling out either. Buy that rip...
    Sep 17 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is DISH Running Out Of Options After Sprint-Softbank Deal's National Security Clearance? [View article]
    I continue to be amused by the confidence expressed by people that can't see beyond their finance 101 text books. At some point both Dish and Softbank have limited resources. Between here and there they both easily have the ability to get the deal done. Softbank has Japanese banks, zero US assets, zero spectrum and zero US experience. Dish has a higher borrowing cost and more leverage but they also have US assets, US cash flow, tons of monetizable spectrum and plenty of partners that would be willing to step in to help close the deal. You need to be able to think more than one hand ahead. I don't see that being done here.
    Jun 3 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is DISH Running Out Of Options After Sprint-Softbank Deal's National Security Clearance? [View article]
    now how is Softbank going to do that? Dish already owns $800mn of that debt. The rest largely in the hands of some of the same hedge funds that own the equity. To buy there must be a willing seller.
    Jun 3 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dish's Offer Does Not Measure Up: Growth And Share Factors [View article]
    Which of Sprint's businesses are growing or generating cash flow again? How much spectrum does Softbank bring to the table? Your missing the parts that matter...
    May 7 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Sprint Side With Strategy? [View article]
    Did you actually just suggest that Sprint would defend itself from a superior offer that has significantly more cash in the deal than SoftBank? By the way, SoftBank is fairly new to the mobile business having acquired Vodafone Japan well less than a decade ago and has exactly Zero experience in the US consumer market. You might want to rethink you logic loop here
    Apr 16 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clearwire Competition May Intensify As Crest And Dish Continue To Oppose Sprint's Bid [View article]
    Sounds like Sprint speak "not accurate".

    I'd read the PCS filing closer and note the part where the "CEO" of Company

    "On August 22, 2012, Mr. Carter spoke with a senior executive of Company C, who asked questions concerning our response to Company C's written indication of interest. The Company C senior executive noted the significant recent increase in our stock price and indicated that the increased price would likely make it more difficult for Company C to make an offer that would be acceptable to the MetroPCS board.

    On August 27, 2012 Mr. Linquist spoke to the chairman of the board of Company C to determine Company C's interest in making an improved offer. The chairman of the board of Company C responded that he was focused on other business matters, but Company C was considering whether to submit an improved offer and understood our timing constraints."

    It's called a FREE LOOK AT THE FINANCIALS. There was no bid. It was non-binding. The cash component was less than the cash on the balance sheet it was structured to fail.
    Feb 27 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment