J. Lawrence Manley Jr., CFA, is a successful contrarian value investment manager with more than twenty years of investment experience and a solid track record of outperformance, reduced volatility and a low market correlation.
I'm a trader who trades both short-term and long-term. I started my career as a day-trader for a trading firm, but then turned to longer time frames and went on my own to manage my portfolio.
I use technical analysis as well as fundamental analysis in my research.
Individual investors should feel free to message me privately about my real-time subscription service, which is very affordable. That is also included with my short idea product for institutional investors, here on Seeking Alpha.
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I am a former financial communications programmer, turned full-time investor. I began investing in the mid-1990s, looking for a way to achieve early retirement. (A goal in which I have succeeded, if you don't consider full-time investing a job.) I took a scientific, experiment-based approach rather than a studious one. I feel that this approach, combined with my extensive programming work in financial markets and directly with traders has given me uncommon contrarian insight into what really drives market dynamics.
To that end, my articles will center around stocks and their derivatives because that's where I have the most experience (over 20 years). I may occasionally comment on currencies, where I believe I have a sound academic knowledge, but less trading experience.I will always refer to a company by name or some abbreviation thereof. By contrast, I will refer to the stock a company issues by its ticker symbol. I think it can be important to differentiate between the two.
Zach is a biotech investor with PhD training in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. In real life, he is a scientific writer specializing in continuing medical education. He hopes to provide a crucial piece of total due diligence as well as interesting insight into clinical findings that may impact readers' portfolios and lives.
I have a degree in Math and Science from the University of Toronto, as well as a degree in education, also from U of T.
I have traded private equity for 38 years and have developed a proprietary Price Modelling System which has provided me with consistent profitable trading success.
In partnership with my computer scientist son, Aidan Gomez, we have automated this model using neural networks, and offer a Trade Alert service that lets subscribers replicate the trades we are involved in.
Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016-????. My worst years were 2013-2015. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets.
Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years.
Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.
Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes.
"Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson
"A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure."
"Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein
I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.
At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.
Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.
Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
Andy Hecht is a sought-after commodity and futures trader, an options expert and analyst. He spent nearly 35 years on Wall Street, including two decades on the trading desk of Phillip Brothers, which became Salomon Brothers and ultimately part of Citigroup.
Over the past two decades, he has researched, structured and executed some of the largest trades ever made, involving massive quantities of precious metals and bulk commodities.
Andy understands the market in a way many traders can’t imagine. He’s booked vessels, armored cars, and trains to transport and store a broad range of commodities. And he’s worked directly with The United Nations and the legendary trading group Phibro.
Today, Andy remains in close contact with sources around the world and his network of traders.
“I have a vast Rolodex of information in my head… so many bull and bear markets. When something happens, I don’t have to think. I just react. History does tend to repeat itself over and over.”
His friends and mentors include highly regarded energy and precious metals traders, supply line specialists and international shipping companies that give him vast insight into the market.
Andy’s writing and analysis are on many market-based websites including CQG. Andy lectures at colleges and Universities. He also contributes to Traders Magazine. He consults for companies involved in producing and consuming commodities. Andy's biweekly radio show, The Commodities Hour with Andy Hecht, can be heard on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 5-6 PM EST on www.tfnn.com. Andy’s first book How to Make Money with Commodities, published by McGraw-Hill was released in 2013 and has received excellent reviews. Andy held a Series 3 and Series 30 license from the National Futures Association and a collaborator and strategist with hedge funds. Andy is the commodity expert for the website about.com and blogs on his own site technomentals.com.
I'm a private, full time trader interested in both long and short ideas. My training and background are in engineering including a decade of consulting engineering practice. I've since switched over to investing/trading which I've done full time for 15+ years and to which I bring a contrarian style. I've also recently become interested in writing and have published editorials at Forbes, PJM, and a few legacy newspapers.
We are an investment consulting firm that provides investment advice and research on small cap stocks to hedge funds and high net worth individuals.
A lasting reputation and trust with our subscribers are important to us. You can view our strong track record and past research at whitediamondresearch.com.
Full-time investor with a medium-term outlook. Former equity research intern and a senior year undergraduate student.
In order to track the news and data I am focusing on, as well as to be aware of my positions, please consider following me on twitter: @AntonTyumin
Thank you for reading my articles. I am always open to any investment-related conversations, so feel free to contact me either here or by email: email@example.com
I run a model fund at Ken Kam's Marketocracy, where they do capital management using the best member mutual fund track records with extensive tabulations of alpha, beta, R-squared, and many other fund management evaluations. Marketocracy Capital Management offers SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) through FOLIOfn Institutional ($100,000 minimum accounts) set up to track the top 15 or so long-term track records (many 12 years plus) of the 30000 or so active members that run models at their site. My fund is one of those top models available for SMAs. My SMA investment fund now has a first year performance with double digit alpha. You can see the fund's performance chart at marketocracy.com (the Turtle Fund - symbol BPMF) and there is one in my profile over at TalkMarkets.
My fund methodology is high diversification, usually running around 40-60 stocks from many different sectors. I rarely weight any position much over 5%. I began at Marketocracy developing an analysis method I've labeled The Fractal Base Flow Model. I've been experimenting with variations of my basic methodology with 4 other funds and a 5th where I try new things. With my first and main model fund BPMF (Bruce Pile's Mutual Fund) I did my basic method for the first 7 years or so with an alpha over 30, then strayed a little into other analysis methods that did not work as well. For the SMA, I am using the methods proven to work well.
Marketocracy is a new way of investing that solves a lot of the problems in the industry today. When investors nowadays survey their options, they are perplexed by the mish mash of risk and fees. In mutual funds, you have regulated safety where managers must diversify with less than 10% of your money in any one name in the top of your weightings scheme, making for at least around 20 stocks at any one time. The SEC also prohibits the risk of leverage and investing in dangerous derivatives, etc. But this safety is typically viewed as a tradeoff with performance vs hedge funds, where all the dangerous stuff is allowed. But the sad result of all this danger is that most hedge funds fail. The average life of a hedge fund that makes it past the first year is just 5 years. More than two thirds of all hedge funds that ever existed are now dead. There is the fund of funds option, but the high turnover means that even they must select an all new portfolio of funds about every 5 years. This makes selecting proven long-term performers virtually impossible. A fund of hedge funds will typically not only charge the high hedge fund fees of 1%-4% management fee plus 15%-25% of your returns, but will also charge fees for running the fund of funds. They pile complication upon complication and charge you for it. "Oh, and the hedge fund industry as a whole hasn’t produced alpha/added value to simple portfolios for years, since its assets under management ballooned." [FTalphaville] With typical leverage, that has grown over 15 years from around 20% to over 40% now, you get 40%more risk than mutual fund rules with no significant added performance, just more costs. And because that added leverage risk is so often concentrated in the same areas by all the large funds, inducing systemic risk, when those bets go wrong they can go very wrong. With all the above, an investor must live with the risk of having just one fund manager, or picker of rotating funds in a fund of funds. Imagine a place where you could go to sign up for an account where you could review track records and styles and risk levels of not just one guy, but up to 15 or so, and check on your account signup form how you want to spread your money among these guys. And imagine that all these managers have had to compile top ranked hedge fund performance levels for up to 15 years under the safety level of SEC rules for mutual funds. And imagine you could get all this at roughly cost of a mutual fund. It would be like opening an account and checking the names of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and all your favorite hedge fund managers to gang tackle your investment objectives. And as in any team sport, if one guy hits a cold streak, the others will carry him. No dependence on one manager. Well there is such a place - Marketocracy Capital Management. Here, thousands of people from all walks of life, from retired and active fund managers to ordinary individual investors, compete online with virtual funds. If your track record qualifies, you can open a GIPS account for real money tracking of your model fund and have client accounts track your model. My fund is one of those, ticker BPMF. FOLIOfn Institutional can open a client SMA where you can pick and choose from the best of the best long-term performers. To look into this: Phone: 1-877-462-4180 email: firstname.lastname@example.org web: marketocracy.com
Owen Williams, CFA, DBA, is an equity fund manager in Geneva, Switzerland and a visiting professor at the Skema Business School, Paris, France. Dr. Williams has worked 16 years in the industry as both a bond/economics strategist with a top, independent research boutique and as a long-only macro equity fund manager. He has a Masters degree in international business from the Moore School of Business (Univ. of South Carolina) and a doctorate in finance from the Grenoble Ecole de Management.
Williams Market Analytics, LLC is a quantitative research boutique offering insightful, actionable analysis of financial markets. The firms also runs a systematic allocation strategy using Dr. Williams' quantitative models. The strategy portfolio can be accessed by both individual investors and RIAs in the U.S. and Europe. The strategy description and 5-year performance record can be found at:
Sirius Capital is a Biotech Portfolio Management firm specializing in mid term investments in clinical stage biotech and pharma companies.
Our analysts combine their extensive experience in Pharma and drug development with financial management expertise to yield maximal profit to our clients.
Spencer Osborne is founder of Satellite Standard Group [SSG], and a partner of Sirius Buzz (http://siriusbuzz.com/). Sirius Buzz covers the satellite radio industry as well as companies that do business in this sector. Sirius Buzz provides information and opinion to readers with an interest in the sector from an investment, as well as consumer perspective.
Along with his work in the media sector, Spencer covers various equities that interest him and writes about these equities from a unique and "out of the box" perspective. Over the years Spencer has built a network of resources within the sectors he writes about. His opinion and insight is oft referred to and sought after by analysts.
As an investor I believe money is made by investing where the mainstream is not, because that’s where you find the bargains (value/contrarian investing). I therefore mainly focus on industries and ideas that are currently overlooked and out of favour, but which will eventually see their time in the sun.
I'm a chartered accountant by profession, hailing from India, who is also pursuing CFA. I look for investments that generate strong value in the long run, and also help investors avoid pitfalls through my analysis.
I am a metals analyst at FastMarkets (UK independent research boutique) in London. Previously, I worked as a precious metals analyst at INTL FC Stone (US brokerage firm) in London under the direction of senior commodity analyst Edward Meir, while I provided some investment consulting services in Paris. In addition to my strong interest in understanding the metals complex from a microeconomic and macroeconomic perspective, I spend a good deal of my spare time in managing my portfolio. I started a discretionary global macro portfolio in 2010 after elaborating my own investment philosophy, largely influenced by George Soros and Karl R. Popper. At present, I continue to work on my philosophical framework in order to improve my decision-making process under uncertainty. I was born in Paris, France. I graduated from University of Assas with a MSc in finance (2011), I also earned a MSc Research in economics from University of Sorbonne (2012), where I published a research thesis intituled “Is gold a speculative bubble?” under the direction of Natixis Chief Economist Patrick Artus, and I finally received a MSc in management from ESSEC Business School (2014). I launched a blog in 2013, Mikz Economics, in which I share some of my research as well as trade ideas. Follow me on Twitter @MikzEconomics to get the most updated metals news https://twitter.com/MikzEconomics
Dmitry Demidenko is an expert in the area of fundamental analysis of the currency and commodity markets. He is among the TOP-5 analysts from Russia's first independent analytical agency Investcafe. He has an industry-specific economics education, with a degree in finance. Dmitry has been a FOREX trader since 2004 and has served as an analyst and asset manager since 2010.
Hi I'm Lior, a PhD candidate in Economics at the University of Barcelona. My field of research is macroeconomics and monetary policy. I have been a blogger for several years mostly focusing on commodities and an active contrarian investor. My blog is tradingnrg.com, and I'm also a co hosting a weekly podcast http://www.marketmoverspodcast.com/
You can also follow me on twitter @Tradingnrg
Full time Investor / Trader, 17 years.
Specialist in risk management, with intermediate trade focus, US stocks, international ETFs and commodities.
Believe in correlation of markets, must understand all markets to trade one well.
Self taught through continuous study of myself and other investors.
Extensive experience with short selling, futures and options.
Developing interest in international markets based on poltical change and policies.
Follow and read fundamentals but invest by listening to technical's.
Follow me on Twitter @Cessnadriver50
Robert P. Balan has more than 4 decades of experience in the financial markets. Education in mining engineering, computer science, finance, and training in economics led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boom of the early 1970s. Robert made a switch to global macro focus in the early 1980 when the commodity bull market waned, with specialization in foreign exchange. Robert wrote a very high profile daily FX analysis while Geneva-based in the mid-1980s (the first FX commentary with a real global readership, "most accessed" in the Reuters and Telerate networks from 1988 to 1994). He worked for Swiss Bank Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland (precursors of today’s new UBS) as head of technical research and as proprietary trader in various major finance centers (London, New York, and subsequently head of proprietary trading in Toronto, respectively) from late 1980s to mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America as head of global technical research (in London and New York) followed in late 1990s to early 2000s. Robert did technical analysis for Saxo Bank (Denmark) in the mid-200s based in New York. He returned to Switzerland in 2004 as head of technical research and strategy, and FX and commodity market analyst for Swiss Life Asset Management in Zurich. He joined Diapason Commodities Management in 2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently as Chief Market Strategist, utilizing fundamental macroeconomic drivers, and structural/technical data in modeling asset price and sector movements. Robert wrote a book on the Elliott Wave Principle in 1988, which was hailed by the London Society of Technical Analysts as “the best book ever written on the subject”. Robert is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), USA.
Qualified investment professional with over 6 years experience in Wealth Management and Investment Advisory.
Proficiency in fundamental equity research, corporate valuation, mutual funds research,m asset allocation and portfolio construction.
Adept in developing investment strategies using applied macro economics and valuations.
Specialisation: Wealth Management, Equity Research, Valuation, Asset Allocation and Portfolio Construction
My investment strategy focuses on balanced investing between short and long stocks. I follow a 'buy-and-hold' strategy for companies with strong fundamentals, while I short sell distressed companies with flawed fundamentals.
To contact me, please either send me a PM or email: email@example.com
My name is Dr Kanak Kanti De, MBBS, MD, PhD, retired medical practitioner, cancer survivor, healthcare sector investor, over 30 years' experience in the sector both in India and the United States. I write/have written on Motley Fool, SeekingAlpha, Benzinga, and on Forbes. I am consistently ranked high on TipRanks, although I don't like their ranking system. My portfolio has consistently beat the various indices for years. Email me to discuss my articles, or for just an adda (Bengali for informal chat) firstname.lastname@example.org.
Jesse has been managing money for over 20 years. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Today he works with a select group of clients at Felder & Company, LLC in Bend, Oregon and publishes The Felder Report.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA, winner of the 2016 Dow Award and 2015 NAAIM Wagner Award, is chief investment strategist and co-portfolio manager at Pension Partners, LLC., an investment advisor which manages mutual funds and separate accounts according to its ATAC strategies. Prior to this role, Gayed served as a portfolio manager for a large international investment group, trading long/short investment ideas in an effort to capture excess returns. From 2004 to 2008, Gayed was a strategist at AmeriCap Advisers LLC, a registered investment advisory firm that managed equity portfolios for large institutional clients. In 2007, he launched his own long/short hedge fund, using various trading strategies focused on taking advantage of stock market anomalies. Follow him on Twitter @pensionpartners and YouTube youtube.com/pensionpartners. He has re-released his father's 1990 book Intermarket Analysis and Investing, now available on Amazon.com.
Alberto holds a Master's degree in Business Economic. During his studies he acquired an extensive managerial and economic background, with a solid quantitative basis. He mainly covered gold mining stocks. In July 2016 he was ranked as Top 50 analysts (Ranked #26 out of 5,269 bloggers (#65 of 9,282 overall experts) by tipranks.com (https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/alberto-abaterusso).