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schatzl

schatzl
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  • Investors Should Keep Apple In Their Portfolios [View article]
    Growth rates are always a look back to past performances. What's putting Apple under pressure is market dynamics and waning faith in that growth story - in particular due to margin compression caused by capable competitors.

    Still the same company, it's just being put under more pressure by competitors. I'm waiting for the next quarter results and will decide on my next steps then.
    Apr 17 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up 0.15%, the S&P 500 just surpassed its all-time closing high of 1565.15 set in October 2007. The intraday high of 1576 remains a decent rally away. [View news story]
    While on the same day initial jobless claims has its biggest miss in 4 months and the Chicago PMI has its biggest miss in 11 months and weakest Production number since Sept 09.

    This is going to end in tears.
    Mar 28 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) -11.5% premarket after shares are downgraded to Underweight with a $14 target price (down from $36) at Morgan Stanley. Credit Suisse cuts its target price to $10 from $30, saying CLF needs to raise at least $2.3B to maintain a 2.5x debt/EBITDA ratio. Goldman Sachs' removal of its Sell tag (it's now rated Neutral) isn't providing a lifeline. [View news story]
    So you think this is the bottom? Still has very high shorting activity. I think the "fun" isn't over yet.
    Mar 27 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nike (NKE): FQ1 EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $6.2B (+9% Y/Y) misses by $0.04B. Shares +5.3% AH. (PR[View news story]
    I'm not liking these revenue misses that are happening more and more across companies. That's a sign of a consumer slowing down. +9% is good, but I'm wondering what the like for like sales are doing, I suspect not even close as good as the 9%.
    Mar 22 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In another blow to active fund management, CalPERS is mulling a move to an all-passive portfolio. The $255B AUM fund already has about half of its money in such, and is now questioning whether the effort (and fees) associated with finding outperforming managers is worth it. [View news story]
    In their defence, hedge funds shouldn't simply imitate indices, but actually hedge against risk. In a bull market underpinned by weak fundamentals, cautious hedge funds are bound to under-perform.
    Mar 20 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx (FDX): FQ3 EPS of $1.23 misses by $0.15. Revenue of $11B (+4% Y/Y) beats by $0.15B. (PR[View news story]
    Economic bellwether. Always needs to be looked at more closely than other companies.
    Mar 20 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The bailout rejected, what's next for Cyprus? Open Europe suggests the EU will allow a few days for Cypriot MPs to get their minds right before the ECB thinks about cutting off funding for the country's banks (which would lead to their collapse). Or not. Reuters' Anatole Kaletsky notes the ECB needs two-thirds of its board to cut off ELA funding, and the Germans don't have the votes. "Time to get bullish ... German U-turn ahead!" [View news story]
    Where to even begin....

    This is probably one of the most ignorant and dumb posts I've read on here.

    Let me see... since you feel so comfortable with prejudiced bigotry: Americans are fat and ignorant? English have bad teeth and their birds are ugly? French are lazy and their birds don't shave?

    This is a serious economic website. Please keep your ignorant drivelling psycho-babble to yourself in future. Thank you.
    Mar 20 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The bailout rejected, what's next for Cyprus? Open Europe suggests the EU will allow a few days for Cypriot MPs to get their minds right before the ECB thinks about cutting off funding for the country's banks (which would lead to their collapse). Or not. Reuters' Anatole Kaletsky notes the ECB needs two-thirds of its board to cut off ELA funding, and the Germans don't have the votes. "Time to get bullish ... German U-turn ahead!" [View news story]
    What some here don't understand, is the corroding willingness to play the paymaster. Politicians may make the U-turn IF they are willing to risk getting voted out. Germany will play the paymaster even to Russian tax dodgers and criminals only as long as its voters are willing. There is a rising undercurrent of resentment and frustration amongst Germany's voters. Don't expect the political landscape to remain stable in Germany - especially after a scenario where Germany bails out Russian oligarchs. If Germany ever decides to leave, all those in the periphery will be in for a nasty surprise. And no, a weak currency will not solve 60% youth unemployment.
    Mar 19 05:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The bailout rejected, what's next for Cyprus? Open Europe suggests the EU will allow a few days for Cypriot MPs to get their minds right before the ECB thinks about cutting off funding for the country's banks (which would lead to their collapse). Or not. Reuters' Anatole Kaletsky notes the ECB needs two-thirds of its board to cut off ELA funding, and the Germans don't have the votes. "Time to get bullish ... German U-turn ahead!" [View news story]
    Ok, great, so you say no. Cyprus and their banks will be bankrupt in 2 weeks tops and most savers will lose all their deposits. If you're lucky you could be the new Iceland. Good luck!
    Mar 19 05:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Consumer Price Index: +0.7% vs. +0.5% expected, 0.0% prior. Core CPI +0.2% vs. +0.2% expected, +0.3% prior. [View news story]
    Or how about the dubious hedonistic subtractions?
    Mar 15 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not helping JPMorgan (JPM) is the rehashing of the London Whale saga, with a just-released Senate report claiming Jamie Dimon withheld critical data from regulators. A hearing is set for tomorrow (Dimon will not testify), and it's possible the DOJ will be called upon to investigate further. It's hard to believe the Fed request for JPM to "address weaknesses" and the London Whale incident aren't linked. Shares -2.1% AH. [View news story]
    Answer this question: are you pals with Washington? Corzine and his cronies are. If you are too, then count yourself "too close to prosecute".
    Mar 15 04:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.K.'s AAA rating was a white elephant, writes Jim Leaviss, and Moody's has done the country a favor by eliminating it. Best of all, he says, the change came before the March budget, meaning the government - relieved of the AAA burden - can engage in a bit of fiscal stimulus. The FTSE +0.5%, but EWU - thanks to cheaper pounds (FXB) - is off 0.7%[View news story]
    Is this some kind of joke?

    Not that I want to give the rating agencies and their laughable record any credence, but having a higher rating used to have the obvious benefits of being able to finance debt more cheaply - which should increasingly become a "must have" as the debt in the western world just keeps getting piled on.

    On the other hand having your central banks buy debt cheaply, is distorting any semblance of a free market price finding mechanism.

    Maybe in the future we don't need any rating agencies, as we emancipate ourselves from private bondholders. We all just run massive deficits and let our central banks buy all the debt on the cheap. Problem solved in perpetuity. Right?!
    Feb 25 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A political bee sting, the Moody's downgrade of the U.K. has Treasury Chancellor Osborne pledging a redoubling of government deficit-cutting efforts. Those interested in a currency punt might have a look at buying pounds (FXB). Already fallen off a cliff in 2013, the downgrade sent sterling hurtling even lower in thin late trading. If this ratings action is as meaningless as most other sovereign downgrades, a sharp bounce may lie ahead. [View news story]
    Tough the downgrade has the "positive" consequence of possibly improving competitiveness, I doubt it is as such a planned strategy but more of a facing up to the decay of economic fundamentals across the developed world.
    Feb 23 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two days of losses is apparently enough: Ben Bernanke shrugged off concerns the Fed's policies are fueling asset bubbles at a meeting earlier this month, reports Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources. Does Jon Hilsenrath have the day off? [View news story]
    Bubbles destroy livelihoods and economies. But yeah, as long as you and guys like Goldman Sachs are making money on the way up and on the way down, everything is fine.
    Feb 22 10:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The European Commission cuts its 2013 outlook, predicting the economy will contract by 0.3% this year before returning to growth of 1.4% in 2014. The EC had forecast the economy would expand 0.1%, but tight lending conditions and record unemployment - which is expected to peak at 12.2% - have dashed any hopes of a recovery this year. With inflation seen falling to 1.8%, pressure could rise on the ECB to lower rates. [View news story]
    I love that unwavering optimism. 2014 is going to be all different.

    Cutting rates below 0.75%? uuuhm.... does anybody honestly believe this will stimulate investments? At such low rates, the economic outlook is the only relevant macro economic factor.
    Feb 22 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
391 Comments
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