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schatzl

schatzl
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  • An Interview With Patrick MontesDeOca On Gold's Outlook In 2012 [View article]
    1. It's debt not deficit
    2. Your debt has gone up from 5.xx trillion to 15.xx trillion, close to three times the value.
    3. Prices don't "have" to go anywhere.
    4. There is no hypothetical "real" gold value.
    Mar 29 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia: Buying Twice The Growth For Half The Price [View article]
    I have an acquaintance that was on the board of one of the top 3 investment banks in Russia for many years. When I asked about a year ago whether buying Russian equity like Gazprom, Lukoil or others was a good idea, he laughed and said. Don't!

    Russia has unbelievable potential, great country and great people, but sadly is still mired in a kleptocratic oligarchy and is still highly corrupt, which tbf isn't that dissimilar to many other industries around the world. But if you do invest, be aware of what you are letting yourself into. Other posters before me have brought up all the relevant points in this regard.
    Mar 28 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • France, the U.K. and the U.S. are in talks about a possible release of strategic oil reserves "in a matter of weeks" in order to push fuel prices down, Le Monde reports. The speculation comes as Iran says that talks with World Powers about its nuclear program will take place on April 13.  [View news story]
    Some economies are net exporters without oil. Germany is a massive net exporter, yet a 100% importer of oil with close to 0% domestic oil production.
    Mar 28 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plugging the gas leak at Total's (TOT) North Sea sputtering well could take months due to the danger of setting off an explosion, according to officials. While the natural gas dissipates in the air, a toxic smell in the air and the wrath of environmentalists in the U.K. is likely to keep the company under increasing scrutiny over the incident. Shares -1.4% in Paris trading, -0.2% premarket U.S. [View news story]
    Apparently the gas is highly toxic, i.e. deadly to humans even in tiny doses. I'm wondering why this isn't a concern? Imagine strong onshore winds. This must surely not only pose a lethal risk to animals but to humans too?
    Mar 28 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France, the U.K. and the U.S. are in talks about a possible release of strategic oil reserves "in a matter of weeks" in order to push fuel prices down, Le Monde reports. The speculation comes as Iran says that talks with World Powers about its nuclear program will take place on April 13.  [View news story]
    I'm politically neutral, but share Austrian economics theory, so see excessive QE and ZIRP as a folly. No, I'm not villainizing anybody. I'm saying it in a matter-of-fact way that there are asset bubbles and try to trade accordingly. Do you trust current stock exchange prices? Do you think the US, Euro and China fundamentals are good? VIX six months futures are very expensive, that tells me others don't trust this bull either. I'm being careful, securing against currency depreciation with a large currency basket, securing against further QE with Gold long positions and shorting the market on a day to day basis wherever I see a chance.

    I really do not have a political agenda, other than Wall Street being shark infested waters and current financial market deregulation doing more harm than good.
    Mar 28 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France, the U.K. and the U.S. are in talks about a possible release of strategic oil reserves "in a matter of weeks" in order to push fuel prices down, Le Monde reports. The speculation comes as Iran says that talks with World Powers about its nuclear program will take place on April 13.  [View news story]
    Back then you had an economy to speak of. This bull is built on sand, err... I meant built on paper. But what do I know, I'm just a little muppet.
    Mar 28 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France, the U.K. and the U.S. are in talks about a possible release of strategic oil reserves "in a matter of weeks" in order to push fuel prices down, Le Monde reports. The speculation comes as Iran says that talks with World Powers about its nuclear program will take place on April 13.  [View news story]
    A release will affect prices for a week until speculation drives them up again. Thanks to Bernanke, asset bubbles are here to stay.
    Mar 28 06:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attention Euro Bears: This Is Not A Currency In Extinction [View article]
    I'm a Euro-citizen and I'm shorting my Euros to other safer currencies as a hedge precisely because of the point you make. The macro situation went from bad to worse. Spain is in a deflationary spiral, Ireland re-entered recession, Italy looks like its going into a deflationary feed-back loop too. France is desperately painting over the cracks. When markets start reconnecting with fundamentals they'll get a fright how bad things really are. Panic guaranteed. With panic comes flight to safety, never mind yield.

    I will concede that without panic and currency flight, the deflationary scenario is very compelling and a strong case for a Euro long position.
    Mar 27 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opel CEO Karl-Friedrich Stracke has reportedly told the German government that it plans to close its Bochum plant as GM looks to revive the loss-making unit. The speculation follows a WSJ report that Opel intends to close 2 EU factories, although Stracke told Bild-Zeitung that EU plants are secure through 2014 due to clauses in labor contracts.  [View news story]
    The European car industry is in for a major correction and in the periphery it already is, with car sales even lower than pre-Euro years.

    Centre for Automotive Research C.A.R. of the University Duisburg-Essen, says that the car makers industry is steering towards its greatest crisis since mid nineties. Careful with that car maker stock, massive downside potential.
    Mar 25 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • News Flash: Europe Is Slowing, China Is Slowing, Goldilocks Has Left The Building [View article]
    What? I used readily available statistics and simple gross values (e.g. EUROSTAT data) and did basic calculations. Please point out my mistake with facts and numbers.

    If you want to go into detailed bilateral VAX ratios, it goes way beyond what is discussed here and in the case of Europe offers a very differentiated and inconclusive picture. The trade impact with China and Europe was clearly understated in this article and I pointed it out. I also conceded that trade still remains secondary for the US.
    Mar 24 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • News Flash: Europe Is Slowing, China Is Slowing, Goldilocks Has Left The Building [View article]
    Sloppy wording. Obviously meant what you stated: deceleration in growth.
    Mar 24 08:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jon Corzine (MFGLQ.PK) ordered $200M in customer funds moved to JPMorgan to cover an overdraft, an email from MF Global's treasurer suggests - a seeming contradiction of Corzine's congressional testimony "I did not instruct anyone to lend customer funds to anyone."  [View news story]
    Anybody surprised? How many more Corzines are out there in Wall Street? Too many. The industry attracts the wrong people.
    Mar 24 07:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • News Flash: Europe Is Slowing, China Is Slowing, Goldilocks Has Left The Building [View article]
    "Europe, 2% of total U.S. GDP, or China, 0.6% of GDP"

    those numbers are off.

    total trade (export+import 2010)=4.2 trillion vs. GDP= 15 trillion

    China total trade (export&import) 2010: 456 billion.
    EU only, total trade (exp+imp goods&services) 2010: 668 billion

    together approx 6% of GDP

    Still your point stands, the US is first and foremost driven by domestic consumption. Everything else is secondary.
    Mar 24 07:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Vs. Broad-Basket Commodity Exposure [View article]
    Many investors motivated to hold gold (including me), do not trust official inflation numbers. Like the unemployment numbers they can be manipulated towards a biased position and both carry enormous political weight, which means there is a strong incentive to manipulate.

    When unsure, investors will rely on personal experience. They see their electricity bill, the grocery bill and what they need to pay at the gas station. I don't care what "core" inflation numbers are thrown out. I trust the numbers I see and they have grown significantly over the last two years.

    Common sense and economics 101 tell me that QE AND massive deficit spending will create inflationary pressures, no matter what the government is trying to sell and I can always trust gold hidden in the basement.

    As to other buyers out there, I'd agree. I'm assuming the Chinese are not that keen on US treasuries and are buying up every gold price dip under 1650. Common sense really. Why produce goods at the expense of your resources, labour and environment, just for the other side to print T-bills and hand them out at will. Poor long term trade if you ask me and the $ has only known one direction for years now and that is down.
    Mar 24 06:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Live The German Unions? [View article]
    excellent article, bravo.

    I also appreciate you highlighting how the € had damaged the periphery by eroding their competitiveness. It is however also fair to mention that the strong capital flows into the periphery were at the expense of capital investment in the core of Europe. Germany has been in a semi-recession with stagnant wages for 10 years while other countries have experienced up to 30% real wage gains. Germany is now reaping the gains of labour restraint, labour reforms and also a strong increase in capital efficiency.

    For the € system to remain functional, Germany needs to spend. Fully agree, but this goes against their ingrained mentality. Germans are frugal by nature - if I may use a prejudiced broad brush as a non-German. The whole system requires every nation to work against age-old clichés. Though only cliché, they are real to an extent and that makes me doubt the viability of the €-Zone. Wouldn't such fundamental behavioural changes require generations? How much time has the ECB given us? 3 years? Rates are going up again and today was another day that looked suspiciously like a ECB 10 y Italian bond buying day. Portugal and Spain grumbling. Social unrest on the streets and dissent between € nations. If we can pull off fundamental changes within the next three years, it can rightfully be considered one of the most impressive economic miracles.

    I suspect however, we will be torn apart by the multitude of forces within and outside working actively against us before we can pull off such a feat.
    Mar 23 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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