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schatzl

schatzl
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  • If the NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment was "off the charts" bullish in the high 80s, what is it now? The index rises to the unheard of level of 104.25, meaning the average respondent is now leveraged long. The most bearish manager is 60% net long - the most bullish position for the most bearish respondent ever. [View news story]
    "No point fighting the fed" might become the same truism "house prices never fall" became.
    Feb 1 11:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    That could quite possibly become true if "core" inflation matches that. Don't quite know what benefit that might have.
    Feb 1 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone manufacturing PMI rises to an 11-month high of 47.9 (flash 47.5) in January from 46.1 in December, with output improving in Germany, Holland and Ireland but with France's slump deepening. The data suggests "that the industrial sector is close to stabilizing after contracting throughout much of last year," says Markit, adding to the "expectation that the eurozone is on course to return to growth by mid-2013." (PR[View news story]
    Actual industrial output and Markit manufacturing PMI at its largest divergence since the global financial crisis. hmm......

    my warning bells are ringing.
    Feb 1 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Chicago PMI: 55.6 vs. 50.5 expected, 51.6 prior. [View news story]
    Only the revised numbers, not the initial.
    Jan 31 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • German unemployment has unexpectedly fallen for the first time in 10 months in January, declining 16,000 to 2.92M vs consensus for a rise of 8,000. The jobless rate dropped to 6.8% from 6.9% in December. "The German labor market is in a good position," says SocGen economist Anatoli Annenkov. "Wages are fairly robust and inflation is coming down. Real income is growing and domestic demand may help the economy to expand again in the first quarter." (PR[View news story]
    Funny what SocGen has to say, but that analyst is completely off.

    Today the German retail numbers for the most important month December were released with an "unexpected" decrease of -4.7%. Real wages have been completely flat for the last 13 years. The only thing making Germany grow for all those years has been growth in exports. The € is radically distorting the German economy and making it completely dependent on exports. This isn't going to end well.
    Jan 31 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Announcement: No changes, with $85B/month in asset purchases and ZIRP remaining the monetary law of the land. New FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed chief Esther George, replaces the Richmond Fed's Jeff Lacker as a dissenting vote. The Fed blames a pause in the recovery on weather and other transitory factors. [View news story]
    I'm afraid you're missing the point.

    312 billion $ additional debt in the 4th quarter for what? Negative growth?! You think that deficit/debt comes for free? It has a heavy price tag and for that the rewards better be worth it. This quarter it simply wasn't and I contend it never was.

    Other comments are cynical in regards to the typical "truespeak" propaganda of needing to blame weather and transient blimps.
    Jan 30 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Announcement: No changes, with $85B/month in asset purchases and ZIRP remaining the monetary law of the land. New FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed chief Esther George, replaces the Richmond Fed's Jeff Lacker as a dissenting vote. The Fed blames a pause in the recovery on weather and other transitory factors. [View news story]
    Upswings are structural and permanent, downswings are transitory and weather induced.
    Jan 30 02:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The EU crisis edges back into the news cycle as the Germans make noises about not rescuing Cyprus - the eurozone's 3rd smallest economy. The country banks - a nice offshore haven for sweethearts from places like Russia - have assets 8X greater than annual GDP and are essentially insolvent. Look for a bailout soon as the rest of Europe disagrees with Germany's stance. [View news story]
    "Look for a bailout soon as the rest of Europe disagrees with Germany's stance"

    Yeah, how can the Germans question the notion of its taxpayers having to bail out corrupt Russian oligarchs and Mafia that have stuffed their untaxed billions in Cyprus.
    Jan 29 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor (F): Q4 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $36.5B beats by $3.33B. (PR[View news story]
    When will that happen? Have you seen Europe's fundamentals? EU27 nations: -23.4% car sales for the last month. Ugly.

    For the US it really was a good year, but I'm still worried about channel stuffing and aggressive sales ending up as non-performing loans. I hope it isn't a flash in the pan.
    Jan 29 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More "crisis over" signs emerge from Europe where German T-Bill yields turned positive for the first time since June at today's auction. The government sold €2.07B of 12-month paper priced to yield 0.1319%. [View news story]
    Credit market signals in an ECB LTRO environment are pointless.

    Look at the fundamentals if you want to know where Europe is heading and there is absolutely nothing positive to find. Every single fundamental is deteriorating in the periphery, with the core showing increased weakness.
    Jan 28 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    That is the attitude that is partly to blame for the stock exchanges to have degenerated into a casino. It used to be a market junction for investors and companies.

    Old schoolers like Kostolany or Buffet are investors and hardly ever do leveraged financial products. They apparently have no skin in the "game" in your eyes and it isn't even a game for me personally. Investing is securing my retirement, my long term health care and the higher eduction for my children. This isn't even fun or entertaining, yet I spend a lot of time trying to make the right choices.
    Jan 27 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    I find this "no Jobs = no innovation" argument completely silly. If you've worked for a large corporation, you'd realize there's thousands of people working hard and given opportunity to input ideas and innovation. Yes, they need to innovate otherwise they'll die in that industry, but it really isn't dependent on one person. It is something I noticed that began with the hero worship of guys like Lee Iacocca at Ford/Chrysler. Yes, these chaps make an impact, but its not like the company lives or dies with them. It's the same hyperbole that drove Apple up to 700.
    Jan 26 05:44 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    I'm very bearish on the fundamentals of western economies, but at 444 I couldn't resist, let alone being able to buy them with my overpriced €. I wouldn't be surprised if they slip further, but lets be honest here, they are still the same highly profitable company they were 4 months ago.

    I remember telling people to hedge their shares when apple went past 600, only for it to carry on to 700. If you're on such a steep uphill ride, always secure with stop-losses, shorts or options.

    First time apple buyer here.
    Jan 25 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece might be finally turning things around, says Morgan Stanley analyst Daniele Antonucci. While the country isn't actually recovering, the huge uncertainty that was caused by fears of a Grexit and other factors, and which was destroying economic activity, has been removed. The recession is alleviating, Greece is becoming more competitive and it's almost achieved a primary surplus. [View news story]
    I appreciate your thought and I'd love to jump in too, but the only thing I see stabilising is the ECB backstopping national debt and general Eurozone politician's support for Greece. "Only" may be the wrong wording here, as that guarantees short term solvency (prob. medium term too).

    I've traditionally been an investor that orientates his investments on fundamental macro-economic data. That data can be considered the environment in which companies generate their future earning streams. Current liquidity programmes across the world have not really improved fundamentals. Growth via national debt or solving solvency through liquidity can only ever be a short term "solution". You're still facing the same issues with the added burden of additional debt.

    So far the fundamentals have not even stabilised and if Greece would have been the odd one out, it might have recovered via trade with the other Eurozone countries. The problem is a deteriorating picture for all Med. economies, so I expect a direct negative feedback loop between these countries. From Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal to France.

    The other issue is a "stabilising Euro" which means reduced trade competitiveness again due to a stronger currency. To be witnessed in Spain, where the recovering Euro has reversed the recovering trade deficit in the last quarter.

    The next issue is real reform. I simply have not seen it. And quite contrary, because the ECB is backstopping failing economies, the pressure is off.

    Another issue are austerity programmes that are acting pro cyclical. They're implemented at the worst possible time.

    On the whole, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg and not the odd one out. It simply exemplifies the other Meds. in an extreme fashion.

    I personally believe this to be a short lived liquidity induced reprieve. Severe depression across Europe is what I expect to fully develop in the next years.
    Jan 22 06:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece might be finally turning things around, says Morgan Stanley analyst Daniele Antonucci. While the country isn't actually recovering, the huge uncertainty that was caused by fears of a Grexit and other factors, and which was destroying economic activity, has been removed. The recession is alleviating, Greece is becoming more competitive and it's almost achieved a primary surplus. [View news story]
    @kmi, great post,

    that Morgan Stanley analyst is not worth the pin-striped suit he's wearing.

    The fundamentals are not only poor, but deteriorating at a scary pace.
    here the latest ELSTAT figures:

    - Industrial orders -15,5% for Nov.
    - Foreign Industrial orders -38,6% for Nov
    - approved constructions - 42,7% in Oct
    - construction down 91% from '05 highs.
    - unemployment up 0,6% to 26,8% Oct
    - industrial production down -2,9% in Nov to 1978 levels.

    I could go on, but alone your post and my numbers discredit those completely absurd claims by Morgan Stanley.

    It highlights the generally poor quality of dissected information that is fed to the public by the banks.

    Muppets beware!
    Jan 21 02:00 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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