Seeking Alpha

schatzl

schatzl
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View schatzl's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Bundesbank is repatriating at least part of its gold from New York (where 45% of the country's reserves are held) and Paris (11%), according to Handelsblatt. Steve Liesman says the Buba has confirmed the story, and the amounts are to be announced tomorrow. [View news story]
    Tungsten weighs as much as gold. Just sayin...
    Jan 15, 2013. 04:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We are not out of the woods," says Fed chief Bernanke in "a conversation" at the University of Michigan's Ford School. Raising the debt ceiling does not create new spending, he says. It simply allows the government to pay bills already racked up. There's no speech - he's currently taking questions from a moderator and will later take questions from the audience and from the twitterverse. [View news story]
    You said "STILL have huge deficits", which is plain wrong.

    Germany today announced a tiny budget surplus for 2012.

    As to the DEBT burden, well it all started in the 70s with misguided Keynesian policies, then transgressed into bailing out the new territories in the unification process, which probably added a third of the debt to GDP alone to date and can still be seen as a millstone around the taxpayer's neck. Quite a miracle it hasn't cost more for having had to take over the result of 50 years of communist mismanagement.

    Tbf, what today's report did not mention is the massive cost incurred through the Euro. 750 billion € of claims on the TARGET2 Bundesbank balance sheet and further billions in guarantees and claim last year alone. Expect Greece to come begging soon and next in line will be the Spanish government after they have finished plundering their pension funds and run out of ways to steal from their own people. The rest of the Med. nation's fundamentals are continuously deteriorating, so I've steeled myself for plenty of downside surprises. This year and many years to follow.
    Jan 15, 2013. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitch again warns it will formally review the U.S.'s AAA rating if the debt ceiling isn't raised, although the agency believes that the risk of a default "remains extremely low." Even if the U.S. averts a default, however, Fitch could still downgrade the country later in the year if Washington fails to formulate a medium-term plan to cut the deficit and restore confidence. (Text[View news story]
    All those downgrade warning have lost their bite.

    We're all aware the US government will not tackle the deficit, that the rating agencies have lost their credibility long ago with the AAA CDOs, that the deficit gets monetised by the Fed, debt ceilings get lifted at the very last second, that those owning a printing press cannot go bankrupt (though they can destroy their currency) and that paradoxically US bond prices go up with a downgrade as it's still considered a safe haven in a risk off scenario.
    Jan 15, 2013. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anglo American Platinum (AAUKF.PK), which produces 40% of global platinum, intends to suspend output at several mines in South Africa, sell its Union mines, cut 14,000 jobs and slash annual output by 400,000 ounces to 2.1-2.3M ounces. Most of the layoffs will come at Amplat's property in Rustenburg, a region where labor unrest left several dead last year. With its action, the firm hopes to return to profitability. [View news story]
    Ouch, I'd say union action back-fired in grand fashion. New mining owners will renegotiate employee contracts that will make existing ones look quite attractive.

    It highlights how lopsided the capital-labour war really is and the price of platinum gets a nice short term boost.
    Jan 15, 2013. 06:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We are not out of the woods," says Fed chief Bernanke in "a conversation" at the University of Michigan's Ford School. Raising the debt ceiling does not create new spending, he says. It simply allows the government to pay bills already racked up. There's no speech - he's currently taking questions from a moderator and will later take questions from the audience and from the twitterverse. [View news story]
    Where to begin....

    you categorize me into the conspiracy theorists, yet I list point by point (and it's not even exhaustive) why current CPI is so different from original CPI and the motives behind them.

    ....and how do I respond to such comments?:

    - "official numbers perfectly tracking unofficial"

    - "Governments exist to print money"

    - "What happens when there isn't enough money? The goods are not bought, workers are not hired, the economy is depressed"

    No offence, but I'm at a loss for words.

    I guess you mean well, but economics is more technical, academic and complicated than "secrets kept by sinister government statisticians" and watching James Bond movies.

    I did not study economics for 7 years to be placed into the "goofball theorists" camp and I've done enough statistical data processing for the private sector to be acutely aware of motives, specific assignments and the required results needed. I was part of that system.
    Jan 15, 2013. 05:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "We are not out of the woods," says Fed chief Bernanke in "a conversation" at the University of Michigan's Ford School. Raising the debt ceiling does not create new spending, he says. It simply allows the government to pay bills already racked up. There's no speech - he's currently taking questions from a moderator and will later take questions from the audience and from the twitterverse. [View news story]
    1. Nothing goofy about highlighting how economic instability leads to social instability.

    2. Inflation, among the biggest headline lies:

    a. compiled by the BLS, a dependant state organisation
    b. Its publicised result has a strong economic behavioural impact, therefore:
    c. Inherently large incentive to be manipulated
    d. switch to a geometric weighting resulted in a lower weighting to CPI components that were rising in price
    e. the BLS instituted a system of “hedonic” adjustments. Hedonics adjusts the prices of goods for the increased pleasure the consumer derives from them
    f. "intervention analysis" in the seasonal adjustment process, thereby smoothing sharp price rises as witnessed in food and energy

    All leads to original CPI measurements from the 70s coming in at close to 10% inflation rate.

    3. you said: " the Germans still have huge deficits".

    What??
    I'm shocked someone with a contributor status would make such a blatantly wrong and uninformed comment.

    Germany's deficit is heading towards 0% and was only 0.8% for 2011.
    Jan 15, 2013. 03:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says the Fed could end its bond-buying if the economy creates another 1-1.5M jobs over the next six months to a year. "That would be indicative that we could stop," says Evans. However, he forecasts that unemployment won't drop to 6.5% until mid-2015, which would mean that under the Fed's plan of linking monetary policy to the jobless and inflation rates, the bank could keep interest rates close to zero for another 2.5 years. [View news story]
    Does Evans actually have conclusive proof that QE directly creates jobs other than inflating asset and commodity prices and thereby reducing real income for the broad populace? Because if he doesn't, I wonder where he gets his enthusiasm from to continue down the inflationary path until a fairly arbitrary "unemployment" number suddenly gets beaten. I like his time estimate too. Wasn't it the Fed that hadn't even acknowledged the housing bubble even after it popped?

    They're hopelessly groping in the dark.
    Jan 14, 2013. 08:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury will not produce a $1T platinum coin as a way of bypassing the problem of the debt ceiling, quashing an idea that has gained currency with Democrats and various high-profile economists and commentators. Neither the Treasury nor the Fed "believe that the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit," the Treasury said yesterday. [View news story]
    *cautiously eyeing the sky*
    Jan 13, 2013. 07:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury will not produce a $1T platinum coin as a way of bypassing the problem of the debt ceiling, quashing an idea that has gained currency with Democrats and various high-profile economists and commentators. Neither the Treasury nor the Fed "believe that the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit," the Treasury said yesterday. [View news story]
    Who would have thought the government would not spend the last credibility they had on misusing a legal loophole to arbitrarily assign the whole deficit on to a coin. The offered solutions are becoming more bizarre for each trillion in debt piled up.

    How about implementing the most fundamental of all budgetary rules?

    Balancing the budget?
    Jan 13, 2013. 06:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global PC shipments, Windows 8 hardware and all, fell 6.4% Y/Y to 89.8M in Q4, according to IDC. That's slightly better than Q3's 8.6% drop, but worse than a forecast for a 4.4% decline. The decline might have been larger if inventory replenishment didn't lead U.S. shipments to fall a relatively modest 4.5%. IDC still considers H-P (HPQ -2.1%) the world's top vendor, and estimates its share rose 90 bps Y/Y to 16.8%. But #3 Dell's (DELL -1.6%) share fell 190 bps to 10.6%. Apple's U.S. share rose 50 bps to 11.4%. AMD -1.9%. STX -1.3%[View news story]
    Surely there is some zero-sum game going on. That surge in smart phone & tablet usage does make the pc obsolete for many potential users and at least the western developed world is reaching a saturation point too. Stagnant/falling real wages for those markets probably means less of a chance people shorten their product cycles or purchase redundant products. PC market should stabilise as it fulfils roles the other products cannot and their best hope remains the developing world.
    Jan 12, 2013. 05:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveils a widely anticipated ¥10.3T ($117B) stimulus plan as he seeks to pull the economy out of deflation. The money will go towards public works, incentives for corporate investment and aid for small businesses. Add in investment from local government and private-sector firms, and the the whole package amounts to ¥20.2T. To fund its new largess, the government plans to sell around ¥5T more bonds than was budgeted for the fiscal year. [View news story]
    The last 20 years they did just that with zero success and a massive debt burden. Now they're doing more of the same and it will suddenly work? Why is it that the least sane and intelligent people run governments?
    Jan 11, 2013. 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The German economy probably suffered a "significant decline" in Q4, the Economy Ministry says, with the industrial sector cutting output due to weak demand in Europe. However, the ministry expects the economy to "revive significantly" this year given the economy's underlying strength and encouraging signs in the global outlook. The euro is flat vs the dollar. [View news story]
    "However, the ministry expects the economy to "revive significantly" this year given the economy's underlying strength and encouraging signs in the global outlook"

    Too funny. Politicians can't help themselves. Outlook is always positive and if you believe hard enough it may actually come true.

    Europe's fundamentals are collapsing and are the main driver of German exports.

    German exports have been the sole driver of German growth for the last 15 years, as national consumption has been flat-lining for that period. Without debt-fuelled demand from the US or China, the future of Germany's GDP looks very grim.
    Jan 11, 2013. 06:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +4K to 371K vs. 362K consensus, 367K prior (revised). Continuing claims -127K to 3.10M. [View news story]
    Yes, because a stock exchange awash in liquidity and turbocharged by ZIRP is an accurate reflection of US fundamentals.
    Jan 10, 2013. 11:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Empire State Survey: Manufacturing -8.1 vs. 0.0 expected, -5.22 prior. New Orders -3.7. Shipments 8.8. Prices paid 16.1. Employment index reflected weaker labor market conditions. The report expects higher six month outlook than previous month. [View news story]
    5th month in a row negative. This isn't an outlier any more, this is a trend.

    But who cares? Bernanke is going full steam ahead. Fundamentals and sentiment have become irrelevant. Only good news is bad news, as that means possibly less of the juice.
    Dec 17, 2012. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italian banks take a beating following Mario Monti's announcement that he intends to resign, which would spark early elections. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the weakest of Italy's five systemic banks, -6.8%. UniCredit -6%, Intesa Sanpaolo -6.3%, Banca Popolare di Milano -6.5%, Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa -7.4%. Italian 10-year bond yields are +28  bps to 4.81%. The FTSE MIB is -3.5%. [View news story]
    Even though I'm not in your bulls camp at present, I have to agree with the hysteria comment. It's more of a sell excuse than a real threat to Italy's economy. Italy has its own set of unique issues that would hardly have been alleviated by Monti, nor aggravated by Berlusconi. The fundamentals are what they are. A different prime minister won't decisively change that. In any event, Berlusconi's chances are slim at best.
    Dec 10, 2012. 07:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
391 Comments
678 Likes