Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View txbeekeeper's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Back-Of-The-Envelope Valuation Of GE [View article]
    Great analysis, thanks!
    Apr 27, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Buys Itself A Lifeline [View article]
    when you are trying to survive this is what you do. Debt does not have to be repaid if you are in bankruptcy. Another way to look at this is as a transfer of shareholder value to the lenders and bond holders. This company is in survival mode waiting for an oil price recovery. This is why I say you must focus on cash - the amount of cash available determines how long they can keep afloat, if that is greater than the time for an oil price recovery they will recoup the value of their reserves, if not the reserves will get sold in bankruptcy at whatever the prevailing prices are.
    Apr 12, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Buys Itself A Lifeline [View article]
    instead of looking at 'capital' you should be looking at cash (and not confusing cash and capital. I.E. a credit agreement is not capital but is used to fund cash flow).
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Accenture [View article]
    this is a good example of where financial metrics developed in the last century contain assumptions that are based on industrial type companies (asset heavy) and fail to grasp the realities of companies where the assets may be intangible. For ACN this refers to the knowledge capital, methods and deep customer relationships. For other companies it might be the patent portfolio (IBM, Microsoft) or design expertise (Apple).

    To say ACN is weak on the current assets ability to cover liabilities is ludicrous given the relatively small amount of liabilities in relationship to the cash generated annually. In addition, some liabilities are in fact accompanied by future cash flows tied to those liabilities. So this is not about ACN but about how Ben Graham described as best he could the world he lived in and how we can learn from what he meant but not mindlessly follow a formula that no longer describes the post industrial world we are investing in.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:07 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bove: Banks "basically nationalized" [View news story]
    Once again I am reminded of the quote from Charlie Munger "Yes I always have CNBC on in my office, I just keep the sound turned off'.

    drivel, drivel, drivel.
    Mar 12, 2015. 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting May Be First Big Victim Of Deregulation [View article]
    still trying to figure out the title, 'deregulation?'. Maybe I am stupid because I cannot figure out where in the article the title applies.
    Mar 10, 2015. 12:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time: Going Long On Ultra Petroleum [View article]
    That WellsFargo chart on well costs is 3 years old and out of date. Marcellus and Utica gas well all-in production costs are dropping below $2. Significant production is waiting for take-away capacity. Pipeline reversals from the Northeast back to the Henry Hub are going to turn the HH upside down. Natural gas prices are in for a long hard ride.

    Keystone pipeline will not benefit US Oil and Gas producers. It will benefit Canadian Oil Sands producers and Gulf Coast refiners. It might give a slight transportation advantage to Bakken producers. Added competition to US Oil producers is a negative not a positive.
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reiterating My Long Position In Ultra Petroleum [View article]
    the irony of this authors view is that A: UPL will increase production but at lower capex and lower supplier cost and B: (the ironic part) is that natural gas prices will rise as though every other producer can't increase production through higher efficiency and lower supplier costs.

    While UPL has been a leader is cost efficiency improvements these are not limited to UPL. Everyone else is doing the same thing and attempting to increase production (more supply lower prices). What is even worse is that the well costs in the Marcellus and Utica are even lower and even closer to the major gas markets in the US. Just don't see the case for B: increased gas pricing.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Predicting, Especially The Future [View article]
    NG pipeline reversals from the Marcellus and Utica to the hubs in Louisiana will drive Natural Gas prices into the dirt end of 2015 or in 2016. Marcellus all in costs < $2.50 with high growth rates. Just waiting for take away capacity. Should be interesting. I flushed all of my NG holdings a few months ago.
    Jan 11, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's 200-Mile Electric Car For $30,000: RIP Tesla [View article]
    Needless to say battery technology is improving and there are numerous paths under development. It is doubtful that any car company will enjoy a monopoly as the battery companies are in it for scale and will want to sell across the industry. Even Tesla has said it's battery factory will make batteries for other companies.

    Saying GM will kill Tesla is kind of like saying the Ford Fusion is a threat to BMW. People don't just buy transportation. Tesla is a luxury car and the electric aspect is a feature but not the only feature and not a reason to be mass produced.

    Tesla is an interesting company - sort of a mix of auto manufacturer, auto innovator (they have said they will license their technology), battery manufacturer, 'fuel' distributor and now getting into home energy storage.

    Nissan upping battery capacity:

    Should be an interesting decade for EV's.
    Jan 11, 2015. 11:55 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's 200-Mile Electric Car For $30,000: RIP Tesla [View article]
    looks quite a bit smaller than the new apple headquarters.
    Jan 11, 2015. 11:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could General Electric Target National Oilwell Varco? [View article]
    I understand Buffett sold his stake last quarter
    Nov 19, 2014. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Payback Times Point To A Long Winter In The Bakken [View article]
    I think we have to keep in mind the effective price of oil in other currencies. The appreciation of the dollar (currently 1 euro=1.25 dollars) has raised the effective price of oil to other countries - in Euro's by about 14% (from a 1:1.45) exchange rate depending on what date you pick. Oil is largely priced in dollars so to maintain market share they have to accept lower prices in the US to maintain their effective price in other countries. While they price in dollars they can still reinvest those dollars in Euro's and import in many currencies.
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xhibit Corp: Management's Shady Ties, Millions Of Shares Issued For Pennies And Absurd Valuation Suggest At Least 80% Downside For This $290M 'Cloud' Stock [View article]
    with Skymall sold for the debt, the internet software / social media development shut down, the Nuetraceuticals shut down and the Internet lead generation / marketing dropped by their service provider and effectively shut down I guess the Pump and now the Dump is complete.

    Nice job Isaac warning investors. I can only assume these characters are off looking for a next 'investment'.
    Nov 17, 2014. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xhibit Corp: Management's Shady Ties, Millions Of Shares Issued For Pennies And Absurd Valuation Suggest At Least 80% Downside For This $290M 'Cloud' Stock [View article]
    Hey Rick,
    Just an update, your wonderful stock is now up to $0.22. Always assumed you worked there otherwise why would you ignore the facts. Of course maybe you got laid off and want to come clean?
    Nov 17, 2014. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment