Seeking Alpha

emac99

emac99
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View emac99's Comments BY TICKER:
ABBV, AMZN, BMO, BX, CL, CLX, ED, ETP, GE, GIS, GMCR, INTC, JNJ, KMI, KMP, KO, LO, MCD, MSFT, MWE, O, OHI, PEP, PM, SDRL, SO, SYY, T, VALE, VNQ, VOD, WAG, WMT, XOM
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Seeking Alpha Contributors And Commenters Pick The Best Dividend Growers For The Next 5 Years [View article]
    Chumpmenudo,

    <<2. The best predictor of the 1 and 3 year dividend growth rate is simply the most recent increase %, less a little.....>>

    Excellent point. That's the closest (of the many interesting comments and suggestions here) to what I do at the individual stock level with our DG holdings. Too many moving parts , macro and micro, to predict each one with any degree of accuracy.

    Bob W, to your questions, I really only try to project forward DG rates in aggregate at the portfolio level. With a broad mix of high quality (mostly CCC) stocks with varied yields and dividend growth rates, if I'm wrong on one or two it won't have a huge impact. Also, I'm well aware that even the strongest will face some declining or flat DG years (CVX, for example). I'm not selling a long time winner on the basis of a couple of slower years.

    I like Richjoy's analogy of the team of horses. Some are pulling, some are resting, at any given time. As long as the overall portfolio DG rate is growing, then it's doing its job.

    emac
    Jul 3, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond The Obvious: Critical Thinking And Investment Decisions (Part 1) [View article]
    Dave,

    Great thought-provoking article.

    Seems like the barrier to useful critical thinking about investing in the past was a dearth of information and trustworthy opinions. Hard to ever know enough about a Pacific Mail or a Coca Cola to make a truly informed choice.

    Now there's an excess of information 24x7 and an overabundance of opinions, many of them "professionals" and all of them claiming to be correct. What's an investor to do??

    The phrase "too much information" has a whole new meaning and wading through it a whole new challenge.

    I'm no Luddite - spent my career in high tech - but sometimes I do wish for the good old days. :)

    Nice work.

    emac
    Jun 27, 2015. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is HCP The REIT Buy Of The Year? [View article]
    Adam,

    Good points. Agree completely. A "hold," maybe, but I also don't see the case for a "strong buy" on HCP at this point vs peer alternatives. VTR, OHI, HCN certainly have their challenges, but not the multiple hurdles faced by HCP.

    Long HCP (but not adding), also OHI, HCN

    emac
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With David Van Knapp [View article]
    Nicholas,

    Wonderful, comprehensive interview. So many gems here. I will be reading and re-reading this one for a L-O-N-G time.

    DVK,

    Found you (and SA) by accident a few years ago, and purchased your eBook, too. You are a true pioneer and thought leader. Also my first author "follow" on SA. I (and many other DGI's) owe you a huge debt of gratitude for questioning convention and inviting a rich dialog that has expanded exponentially over time.

    Thank you for sharing your learnings, data, analysis, influences, experiences, and investing wisdom so freely with this community. Your contributions are beyond priceless.

    emac
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With David Van Knapp [View article]
    David F,

    Ah, but there is the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings, top farm club for the Minnesota Twins. And prior to that, Cardinals and Orioles. Hence the name.

    One of the oldest continuing same-city franchises in the league. Dates to late 1800's. Used to catch an occasional Red Wings game myself way back when, when I lived there... don't recall seeing DVK, though. :)

    emac
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    Haven't added in a while, but holding onto my GE to see how the restructuring plays out. Not because my position is under water (it's not), but because in the wake of the financial collapse they finally laid out a plan to rid themselves of the non core financials and refocus on their core industrial strengths.

    Yes, earnings growth will slow, but it will be more stable and reliable. At least, that's my take.

    emac
    Jun 23, 2015. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    I sold DRI too. It was never a high conviction holding. So no regrets, regardless of recent developments or price action.

    That's the difference, I think, between an XOM (say) and a DRI.

    emac
    Jun 23, 2015. 03:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dividend Growth Portfolio - How Did Income Hold Up During The Last Recession? [View article]
    DVK,

    <<I find it hard to see how this article would lead investors to "decide to sell their broad based funds and put the proceeds, today, into a selection of dividend champions that performed beautifully through the last recession but whose prices are extremely overvalued for the companies expected growth." Presumably, their broad based funds are also extremely overvalued, so the valuation exchange is a wash.>>

    That was exactly my experience. My 401(k), all in funds, lost 30% of its value in 2009. By the time I retired in 2012 and rolled it into a self-directed IRA, it had fully recovered.

    And there was absolutely no way the funds provided the kind of predictable, reliable "paycheck replacement" I knew I wanted in retirement.

    I can live on dividends. Paper gains - not so much. They can too easily turn into paper losses.

    emac
    Jun 21, 2015. 08:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dividend Growth Portfolio - How Did Income Hold Up During The Last Recession? [View article]
    PendragonY,

    What a great comment. The approach you describe is what I *wish* I had done.

    I retired early and rolled over a 401(k) and lump sum pension into a new self-directed IRA in 2012. Steep learning curve.

    I cast way too wide a net initially. No clearly documented plan. Didn't fully understand or pay attention to quality.

    It was sheer luck that the ongoing bull market of the past 4 years allowed me to exit many (low conviction) positions at a profit and still open or add to core holdings. I did get burned on a couple. Fortunately the losses were small relative to the overall portfolio.

    If I had a "do-over, " it would be exactly as you describe. :)

    emac
    Jun 21, 2015. 08:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dividend Growth Portfolio - How Did Income Hold Up During The Last Recession? [View article]
    UP,

    <<I have also tried to think of REITs as belonging to the sector of their main tenants. O for me gets lumped with WBA and FedEx. HCP and OHI are with health care. I expect them to correlate more with their underlying partners than the regular financials. But that is just the way I think about them.>>


    Nicely put. I view eREITs the way you do. My holdings in O and NNN are classified as Retail/Consumer; HCN, HCP, OHI as Health Care. Etc.

    emac
    Jun 21, 2015. 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Utilities For Dividend Growth And Income [View article]
    gabby1945,

    I thought so, too. Turns out ETE is an MLP (and the general partner and owner of 100% of the IDR's for ETP).

    I am long ETP, although Josh Peters of Morningstar has recommended ETE as the better play, due to the IDR's.

    Four related MLP's in total. bit complex to say the least. Descriptions below, from Energy Transfers web site.

    emac

    "Today, there are four publicly traded partnerships in the Energy Transfer family.

    "Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP) is a master limited partnership owning and operating one of the largest and most diversified portfolios of energy assets in the United States. ETP's subsidiaries include Panhandle Eastern Pipe Line Company, LP (the successor of Southern Union Company) and Lone Star NGL LLC, which owns and operates natural gas liquids storage, fractionation and transportation assets. In total, ETP currently owns and operates more than 62,000 miles of natural gas and natural gas liquids pipelines. ETP also owns the general partner, 100% of the incentive distribution rights, and approximately 67.1 million common units in Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE:SXL), which operates a geographically diverse portfolio of crude oil and refined products pipelines, terminalling and crude oil acquisition and marketing assets. ETP owns 100% of Sunoco, Inc. and 100% of Susser Holdings Corporation. Additionally, ETP owns the general partner, 100% of the incentive distribution rights and approximately 44% of the limited partner interests in Sunoco LP (formerly Susser Petroleum Partners LP) (NYSE:SUN), a wholesale fuel distributor and convenience store operator. ETP's general partner is owned by Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE:ETE).

    Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. (NYSE:ETE) is a master limited partnership which owns the general partner and 100% of the incentive distribution rights (IDRs) of Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP), approximately 23.6 million ETP common units, and approximately 81.0 million ETP Class H Units, which track 90% of the underlying economics of the general partner interest and IDRs of Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE:SXL). On a consolidated basis, ETE's family of companies owns and operates approximately 71,000 miles of natural gas, natural gas liquids, refined products, and crude oil pipelines.

    "Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE:SXL), headquartered in Philadelphia, is a master limited partnership that owns and operates a logistics business consisting of a geographically diverse portfolio of complementary crude oil, refined products, and natural gas liquids pipeline, terminalling and acquisition and marketing assets which are used to facilitate the purchase and sale of crude oil, refined products, and natural gas liquids. SXL’s general partner is a consolidated subsidiary of Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE: ETP). For more information, visit the Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. web site at http://bit.ly/13vxDhE.

    "Sunoco LP (NYSE:SUN) is a master limited partnership (MLP) that primarily distributes motor fuel to convenience stores, independent dealers, commercial customers and distributors. SUN also operates more than 150 convenience stores and retail fuel sites. SUN conducts its business through wholly owned subsidiaries, as well as through its 31.58 percent interest in Sunoco, LLC, in partnership with an affiliate of its parent company, Energy Transfer Partners. While primarily engaged in natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil and refined products transportation, ETP also operates a retail and fuel distribution business through its interest in Sunoco, LLC, as well as wholly owned subsidiaries, Sunoco, Inc. and Stripes LLC that operate approximately 1,100 convenience stores and retail fuel sites. For more information, visit the Sunoco LP website at http://www.SunocoLP.com."
    Jun 21, 2015. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: Daskapital1000 [View article]
    Oh, and I own all 5 of these "I" stocks (core; full positions) and many more like them.

    I own zero of these "G" stocks.

    emac
    Jun 21, 2015. 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: Daskapital1000 [View article]
    Recent retiree. So it's all about quality, reliable income. Not "as much as possible," but enough to cover expenses over time, including inflation.

    My only hard rules are (1) minimum credit rating BBB+ and (2) track record of paying and raising dividends at least 7 years (e.g., through the recent 2008-2009 Great Recession). Quality and Reliability.

    I no longer speculate. So that pretty much rules out pure growth. But retirement could easily last as long as the working years did. So I have a broad mix of higher yield / lower growth (utilities, telecom, eREITs, etc.) and lower yield / higher growth (tech, medical, etc.) stocks in our diversified DG portfolio.

    emac
    Jun 21, 2015. 01:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8% Raise For The Dividend Growth 50 [View article]
    Mike,

    An 8% average increase for these 33 DG50 holdings beats the ~3% inflation rate handily. In my opinion, that's the differential to pay attention to.

    Of course, the DG50's total income is weighted by its respective holdings and share counts with dividends reinvested. But there's no denying it's headed solidly in the right income direction - up! And faster than inflation.

    Good stuff! Thanks for the update.

    emac
    Jun 18, 2015. 06:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Healthcare REITs For A Healthier Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Chuck,

    Great overview of these 4 health care REITs. I hold half positions in OHI and HCP, and a full position in HCN.

    I would caution that added diligence is definitely necessary with HCP. The HCR ManorCare issue is significant. They represent 1/4 of HCP's business, the DoJ investigation on charges that ManorCare knowingly defrauded Medicare and Medicaid with services and billings is no small matter, and the $68M first round rent relief negotiated by HCP will certainly impact HCP's earnings and might impact its dividend.

    Also as others have noted, OHI's credit rating is weak, so some caution there is perhaps warranted as well.

    Agree with your premise, though: in the REIT arena, health care is a robust and growing industry with a long runway ahead. The strongest players will grow and prosper as consolidations take place in this fragmented space, regardless of interest rates.

    emac
    Jun 18, 2015. 05:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
440 Comments
884 Likes